CHIEFS, COLTS LEAD
THE PACK
The Patriots'
dynasty is -- as I've argued for a long time -- the best in the history of
sports. The NFL is brilliantly set up to give every team a
chance. Going from worst to first is beautifully mainstream, with the draft and
free agency offering annual avenues to improvement and the salary cap keeping
the playing field level. There's also the single-elimination nature of the
playoffs, which makes it hard for any one team to string together multiple
years of postseason dominance. And yet -- Bill Belichick and Tom Brady
have reached nine Super Bowls together, winning six. Wow. It's
legendary.
And they're not done yet. For Brady and Belichick, who just
became the oldest quarterback and coach to win a Super Bowl, age is just a number.
But how does their Super Bowl window stack up against
the rest of the league? My amazing editors at NFL.com asked me to rank the
squads with the biggest window to win a Super Bowl. It's a superb topic, providing
a snapshot of which squads are in the best position to compete for the longest
period of time.
Now, please understand. This is not a power ranking for
2019. I didn't include the Saints. Drew Brees is
getting older. Will Sean Payton be there past 2019? I didn't include the Steelers,
who face so many unknowns, with Antonio Brown potentially
headed elsewhere. I will likely pick the Packers to
make the playoffs with Matt LaFleur coaching up Aaron Rodgers --
but we need to see it first. I love the Falcons to
bounce back from a disappointing 2018 with their talent and (presumably) better
injury luck. But what's the trust level of Dan Quinn?
Below is my list, Schein Nine-style, of the biggest Super Bowl windows moving forward
from this point on:
(1) KANSAS CITY
CHIEFS
My guy Patty Mahomes is
special, and he was rightly named the MVP after throwing for 5,097 yards and an
incredible 50 touchdown passes in, yes, his first full season
as a starter. He elevates everyone on this Kansas City offense, especially
tight end Travis Kelce and
receiver Tyreek Hill.
The key is Mahomes' age. He's so amazing already -- and he's still just 23
years old. This is a quarterback- and offense-driven league, and Andy Reid's
team is set in both realms for a nice, long time, especially
if the Chiefs can
get Hill, whose deal runs out after 2019, locked up
with an extension. Kelce is under contract through 2021, while
Mahomes has two more years left on his rookie pact (three, if you include the
fifth-year option in 2021).
The Chiefs were
a Dee Ford neutral-zone
infraction-away from going to Super Bowl LIII and winning it all. I
liked the pick of
Steve Spagnuolo to replace outgoing longtime coordinator Bob
Sutton. Will they retain Ford, who is set to hit free agency after logging a
career-high 13 sacks?
(2) INDIANAPOLIS
COLTS
After missing all of 2017 due to
shoulder issues, Andrew Luck threw
for 4,593 yards and 39 touchdowns while pushing Indy to a playoff appearance
after a 1-5 start. The Comeback Player of the Year showed exactly what he is in
2018: a star. Indy was so well-coached under Frank Reich in his first year on
the job. And defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus coaxed the defense to an 11th-ranked
finish, one year after the Colts'
D placed 30th in the NFL.
Eberflus demands a lot out of his guys. Defensive Rookie of
the Year Darius
Leonard told me last week on my SiriusXM Radio show that
the Colts'
defensive practices are tougher than the games. Speaking of Leonard, the
second-round pick paced the league with 163 tackles. He and sixth overall
pick Quenton
Nelson -- part of a reshaped O-line that allowed a league-low
18 sacks, one year after Colts quarterbacks
were sacked a league-high 56 times -- had iconic rookie years.
Luck is under contract through 2021, while receiver T.Y. Hilton is
under contract through 2020. General manager Chris Ballard has brought in
high-character guys, and there are surely more to come, given that he's set to
work with significant cap room this offseason.
(3) CHICAGO BEARS
The power in the rest of the NFC North scares me. Aaron Rodgers is
still in Green Bay, and the Vikings are still very talented. My faith in
Chicago here rests on that fantastic defense, which is loaded with young studs
like Khalil Mack, Eddie Jackson, Kyle Fuller and Leonard Floyd.
Mack, a four-time Pro Bowler who helped spark this Bears revival
when Chicago traded for him in September, will be just 28 when next season
begins, and he's under contract through 2024. I'd argue the Bears'
defense, which allowed a scant 17.7 points per game (least in the NFL) in 2018,
is the best in the league, though I'm curious to see how Chuck Pagano replaces the
great Vic Fangio (who left to coach the Broncos) as the
defensive coordinator.
As for the offense, I thought Mitch Trubisky made major
progress in Year 2 (and, not coincidentally, Year 1 under Matt Nagy), finishing
with a 66.6 percent completion rate, 3,223 yards, a 24:12 TD-to-INT ratio and a
95.4 passer rating. Trubisky is primed for stardom. Nagy, the 2018 Coach of the
Year, is so good at coaching this team up.
(4) LOS ANGELES
RAMS
Don't let the Rams'
disappointing showing in Super Bowl
LIII confuse you. Sean McVay is a stud; he's sensational.
There's a reason he won almost as many games in his first two years on the job
(24) as the Rams won
in the previous five years combined (31). McVay simply ran into the buzzsaw
that is Bill Belichick in the Super Bowl. Aaron Donald is
the best defensive player in the sport; he's young (27) and not going anywhere
(signed through 2024). My belief in quarterback Jared Goff and
running back Todd Gurley remains
sky high. From 2017 to '18, Goff threw for 8,492 yards (fifth-most in the NFL
in that span), with 60 touchdown passes (tied for fourth-most), while Gurley
piled up a league-high 3,924 yards from scrimmage and 40 total
touchdowns. Whatever kept
Gurley from playing at his best this postseason, I have faith
he'll find a way back to form in 2019.
GM Les Snead loaded up this roster for the 2018 run,
acquiring players like Ndamukong Suh, Brandin Cooks, Aqib Talib, Marcus Peters and Dante Fowler.
There will be changes, especially as the Rams fit
the contracts of Donald, Gurley and Cooks into the picture alongside a
potential long-term extension for Goff down the road. But my educated guess is
Snead will find new wingmen.
(5) HOUSTON TEXANS
Houston oozes stars. The recipe for success is in place,
resting on the dynamic duo of quarterback Deshaun
Watson (23 and entering Year 3 of his rookie deal) and
receiver DeAndre
Hopkins (26 and under contract through 2022), along with a
dominant defense led by J.J. Watt (29,
signed through 2021) and the 25-year-old Clowney. (Although retaining Clowney,
who is set to hit free agency, looms large on the offseason to-do list.) The
key now is for Houston to reverse the outcome of games like the
problematic Week 16 loss to the Eagles in
2018, which opened the door for New England to steal the No. 2 seed in the AFC
out from under the Texans.
But Bill O'Brien is in place to guide this franchise into the future.
(6) NEW ENGLAND
PATRIOTS
This one doesn't require much in the way of explanation: I
am operating under the blanket assumption that Tom Brady will
play at this level until age 45, which gives him a solid three-season window in
which to continue racking up rings. Bill Belichick has such great passion for
coaching and teaching. Oh, and, you know ... it's the best dynasty
ever.
(7) PHILADELPHIA
EAGLES
Doug Pederson and the Eagles have
legit championship DNA. The playoff run they made in 2018, staving off a Super Bowl hangover after enduring a
sluggish start and bad losses, spoke volumes. And they did it -- again! -- with
backup Nick Foles starting
in place of the injured Carson Wentz.
Well, Foles is probably on his way
out of town, but Wentz should be healthy and in MVP form once more.
Don't forget that he was on pace to set a career high in passing yards (3,912
-- and that's excluding the two games he missed at the beginning of the year)
when the Eagles shut him down in
December. Entering Year 4 of his rookie contract, Wentz is likely in line for
an extension soon, but if anyone can pull off the juggling act of keeping
Philly competitive with a well-compensated QB on the roster, it's brilliant GM
Howie Roseman.
(8) BALTIMORE
RAVENS
New general manager Eric DeCosta was coveted by other teams
for ages, but he stayed loyal to Baltimore and now gets his crack at running
the show, with longtime GM Ozzie Newsome stepping aside. DeCosta's first
move, inking coach
John Harbaugh to an extension, was brilliant, considering the
proficiency with which Harbaugh seems to reach the playoffs (seven times in 11
seasons). I'm a big believer in QB Lamar Jackson,
who went 6-1 down the stretch as a dual-threat starter, and in Jackson's growth
under new offensive coordinator Greg Roman, who's worked previously with mobile
quarterbacks Colin Kaepernick and Tyrod Taylor.
And while there are key players headed for free agency, including C.J. Mosley and Za'Darius
Smith, DeCosta will figure out how to keep that cupboard stacked.
(9) LOS ANGELES
CHARGERS
This final spot came down to the Chargers, Dallas
Cowboys and Cleveland
Browns. But I want to see how new Browns coach
Freddie Kitchens -- who had only ever been a position coach before becoming
Cleveland's offensive coordinator in 2018 -- handles the big seat. And I don't
know who the Cowboys'
coach will be past 2019. I know Chargers QB Philip Rivers is
getting up in age (37), but he's also coming off the finest season of his Hall of Fame career (4,308 yards, 32
TDs, 12 INTs, 105.5 passer rating). Having Joey Bosa healthy
for the entire season can help the Chargers secure
home playoff games, considering what Bosa accomplished in just seven games in
2018 (5.5 sacks). Moving into a new stadium will help in 2020. Plus, this team
is flat-out loaded.
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