DUKE IS YOUR NEW
NO. 1 (APOLOGIES, VOLS)
Tennessee has
been No. 1 in our rankings since mid-January, when the Volunteers escaped
against Alabama and then Duke beat Virginia. And Rick Barnes' team hasn't lost
since.
But we're dropping them to No. 2 this week.
Here's your updated source for all the latest on the NCAA
tournament bubble.
We've said since the beginning of last season that these
rankings aren't done like the AP or coaches' polls, in which winners rise,
losers fall and that's about it. It's based on an entire body of work, not just
how they're playing now, or who we would take on a neutral floor. And right
now, the answer is clear: Duke is No. 1.
The Blue Devils beat
Virginia for the second time this season on Saturday night, this time in
Charlottesville and at full strength. And aside from the fact Duke has two
losses and Tennessee has one, there's not a category that puts the Volunteers
ahead of the Blue Devils.
Now, if Duke stumbles again or Tennessee beats Kentucky
twice in the next six games, then we could revisit the debate. But right now,
it's hard to come up with an argument to put the Volunteers ahead of the Blue
Devils based on an overall body of work -- outside of pure win-loss record.
1. DUKE BLUE
DEVILS (21-2)
Previous ranking: 2 This week: at Louisville (Tuesday), vs. NC State (Saturday)
Duke did things to Virginia's defense that no team has done
to the Cavaliers since Tony Bennett arrived in Charlottesville -- and if Duke
is going to shoot like it did on Saturday night, give the Blue Devils the
national championship trophy right now. That's unlikely, however. They now head
to Louisville on Tuesday; could it be a letdown spot after the big win?
2. TENNESSEE
VOLUNTEERS (22-1)
Previous ranking: 1 This week: vs. South Carolina (Wednesday), at Kentucky (Saturday)
One more game stands between a Tennessee team ranked No. 1
in the polls heading to Kentucky on Saturday to face one of the hottest teams
in college basketball. The Volunteers will host South Carolina on Wednesday in
a rematch of a game Tennessee won by 22 points on the road. Tennessee's offense
remains elite, and the defense is also looking better. The Vols have held four
of their past five opponents to fewer than one point per possession.
3. VIRGINIA
CAVALIERS (20-2)
Previous ranking: 3 This week: at North Carolina (Monday), vs. Notre Dame (Saturday)
There's not a ton of time for Tony Bennett to dwell on what
happened against Duke on Saturday night, as a trip to Chapel Hill to face a
North Carolina team that has won seven games in a row awaits on Monday. The
Cavaliers have defeated the Tar Heels three straight times over the past two
years. Obviously, the pace battle will be a huge factor, as the Tar Heels rank
No. 5 in adjusted tempo and Virginia slots in at No. 353.
4. GONZAGA
BULLDOGS (23-2)
Previous ranking: 4
This week: at Loyola Marymount (Thursday), at San Diego (Saturday)
How will Gonzaga replace Killian
Tillie? Had the Bulldogs not done it for the first half of the
season, there might be more concern. The most obvious solution is for Mark Few
to do what he did for the first 15 games: play freshman Filip
Petrusev for longer stretches. His role diminished considerably
once Tillie returned, but Petrusev played 21 minutes against Saint Mary's and finished
with 15 points.
5. MICHIGAN
WOLVERINES (22-2)
Previous ranking: 5
This week: at Penn State (Tuesday), vs. Maryland (Saturday)
It was hard to predict Jon Teske would
be the game-changer on Saturday in the win over Wisconsin. After a three-game
stretch in which Teske totaled just 19 points on 21 shots, he went for 17 points
and 12 rebounds -- and, more importantly, limited Ethan Happ in
the second half. Teske's development into an inside-outside weapon and an elite
defender has been impressive.
6. KENTUCKY
WILDCATS (20-3)
Previous ranking: 6 This week: vs. LSU (Tuesday), vs. Tennessee (Saturday)
Kentucky is not that far from a 1-seed in projected
brackets, something that was impossible to see coming five weeks ago. The
Wildcats have seven Quadrant 1 wins at the moment, tied for the third-most in
the country. They've beaten North Carolina, Kansas and Louisville. There's a
huge chance for John Calipari's team on Saturday, when Tennessee and its
18-game winning streak comes to town.
7. NORTH
CAROLINA TAR HEELS (19-4)
Previous ranking: 7 This week: vs. Virginia (Monday), at Wake Forest (Saturday)
Coby White continues
to perform as one of the best freshmen in the country -- despite not getting
the attention he would seemingly deserve. He finished with 33 points and six
assists on Saturday, including 23 points in the second half and five 3-pointers
in the final seven minutes of regulation. White has now scored at least 15
points in six of UNC's past seven games.
8. HOUSTON
COUGARS (22-1)
Previous ranking: 9 This week: at UConn (Thursday), at Tulane (Sunday)
Another high-level defensive performance from the Cougars,
who held Cincinnati scoreless for the final six-plus minutes of Sunday's game
and finished on an 8-0 run to beat the Bearcats and take control of the AAC
standings. Former UMass transfer Dejon Jarreau had
perhaps his best game in a Houston uniform, finishing with 16 points, eight
rebounds and five assists.
9. NEVADA WOLF
PACK (23-1)
Previous ranking: 8 This week: at Wyoming (Saturday)
It will be interesting to see what the committee ultimately
does with the Wolf Pack. They were a 4-seed in the bracket reveal on Saturday
despite getting out to a 23-1 start. However, they simply lack quality wins.
Their best wins are over Utah State and Arizona State, two teams that aren't
locks to make the NCAA tournament. Their big remaining chance comes at Utah
State on March 2.
10. MICHIGAN
STATE SPARTANS (19-5)
Previous ranking: 10 This week: at Wisconsin (Tuesday), vs. Ohio State (Sunday)
We continue to see how vital Nick Ward is
to the Spartans' success. He finished with 22 points and nine rebounds in the
blowout win over Minnesota on Saturday after totaling 30 points and 10 rebounds
over Michigan State's previous three games -- all losses. He needs to be a
dominant force down low, as Cassius
Winston can't do it all offensively by himself. (Matt McQuaid's
going for season-highs in points and assists didn't hurt, either.)
11. KANSAS
JAYHAWKS (18-6)
Previous ranking: 11 This week: at TCU (Monday), vs. West Virginia (Saturday)
After a long week in the Big 12 in which Kansas dipped to
the middle of the pack, the Jayhawks are now tied for second -- but still 1.5
games behind Kansas State. The Jayhawks get the Wildcats in Lawrence in two
weeks, but four of their final seven Big 12 games are on the road -- including
trips to TCU on Monday and one to Lubbock next Saturday. There's a lot of work
to do.
12. MARQUETTE
GOLDEN EAGLES (20-4)
Previous ranking: 12 This week: at DePaul (Tuesday)
Sacar Anim's emergence is coming at an opportune time for the
Golden Eagles. Freshman Joey Hauser has
totaled eight points in his past three games after scoring double figures in
seven of his previous eight. Sam Hauser scored
just four points against Villanova after dropping at least 19 points in six
straight games. Anim, however, has now hit double figures in three straight
games.
13. PURDUE
BOILERMAKERS (17-6)
Previous ranking: 13
This week: at Maryland (Tuesday), vs. Penn State (Saturday)
That's now eight wins in a row for the Boilermakers, who are
likely to be favored in every game the rest of the season after Tuesday's trip
to Maryland. If Purdue can get through that game with a win, it will have a
legitimate shot to win the Big Ten title. Michigan, the co-leader atop the
standings, has to face Michigan State twice in the final two weeks of the
season.
14. LOUISVILLE
CARDINALS (17-7)
Previous ranking: 14 This week: vs. Duke (Tuesday), vs. Clemson (Saturday)
Louisville has now lost two of three, and Duke comes to town
on Tuesday -- and the Cardinals still have to face Virginia twice in their
final four games of the season. Chris Mack's defense has struggled of late,
allowing at least one point per possession in three straight games after
letting just one opponent hit that mark in the previous six contests. That
obviously won't work against Duke.
15. WISCONSIN
BADGERS (17-7)
Previous ranking: 16 This week: vs. Michigan State (Tuesday)
We've probably been too down on Wisconsin's profile and
should have moved them into the rankings early. So we've rectified that and
slotted them in at No. 15 despite the loss to Michigan on Saturday. The Badgers
have top-12 rankings in the NET, BPI and at KenPom. They have seven Quadrant 1
wins and a top-15 Strength of Schedule. They can take another jump with
Michigan State visiting Madison on Tuesday.
16. IOWA STATE
CYCLONES (18-6)
Previous ranking: 15 This week: at Kansas State (Saturday)
The Cyclones were on the wrong side of history on Saturday,
as TCU's win was the Horned Frogs' first road win over a ranked team since 1998
-- and only the second in program history. Iowa State shot just 29.2 percent
from 3-point range and had its worst defensive performance since an
early-December loss at Iowa. If the Cyclones still harbor Big 12 title hopes,
Saturday's trip to Kansas State is a must-win.
Dropped out: None
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