RATING TEAMS THAT
WILL CHANGE MOST IN 2019 OFFSEASON
This NFL offseason will prove again that the league and its
teams never rest. With that in mind, I look back with my annual offseason
overhaul rankings for all 32 teams. It's a chance to project which teams might
undergo the most significant changes as the hiring cycle for coaches and
general managers gives way to roster cuts, free agency, trades and the draft.
I start with the teams that missed the postseason or were
eliminated early.
1. NEW YORK JETS
The Jets will have new coach Adam Gase paired with a
fifth-year general manager under pressure to support second-year
quarterback Sam Darnold.
The roster has great potential for turnover beyond those
factors. Twenty-four veterans with a combined 141 starts and more than 8,000
snaps for the 2018 Jets enter the offseason without contracts for next season.
Those figures for starts and snaps are the highest in the league. So is the $67
million in cap charges those veteran players represented.
The offensive skill positions and defensive secondary seem
especially ripe for overhauls.
2. ARIZONA
CARDINALS
The Cardinals were No. 1 on this list last offseason and
could challenge for the top spot again. Like the Jets, they will have a new
coach -- Kliff Kingsbury -- paired with an incumbent GM under pressure to
support a quarterback selected in the first round of the 2018 draft. Ownership
could expect quick results even though this looks to be a long-term rebuild.
Arizona had the NFL's sixth-oldest starters in 2018, not
counting quarterbacks. Veterans without contracts for 2019 combined for 112
starts, fourth most in the league. An older roster that performed poorly and
has lots of unsigned players with a new coach is a strong candidate for
turnover.
GM Steve Keim needs to overhaul the offensive line and
receiving spots, especially if unsigned Cardinals legend Larry
Fitzgerald does not return.
3. OAKLAND
RAIDERS
Jon Gruden already overhauled much of the roster he
inherited from former coach Jack Del Rio and recently dismissed GM Reggie
McKenzie. There is no reason to expect the pace of roster changes to suddenly
slow following a 4-12 season. Gruden and new GM Mike Mayock own three
first-round picks and will presumably overhaul the defense, for starters.
Gruden's affinity for veteran players at the offensive skill
positions contributed to Oakland ranking No. 1 by a wide margin in average age
for starters at running back, tight end and wide receiver. Will Gruden seek to
get younger there? If so, there could be additional changes. The Raiders'
29.9-year average for starters at those positions was 1.2 years above the
averages for the runner-up Patriots and Dolphins. It was 4.9 years older than
the average for the Cowboys, who resided at the other end of the age spectrum.
4. MIAMI
DOLPHINS
Owner Stephen Ross punctuated the Dolphins' leadership
changes by suggesting the team needed a long-term rebuild after attempts to
maximize the short term failed to meet his expectations. GM Chris Grier and the
new coach will spearhead those efforts.
Veterans Frank Gore, Josh Sitton, William Hayes and Daniel
Kilgore are all 30 or older and finished the season on injured
reserve. What will the future hold for them? Gore and mainstay
pass-rusher Cameron Wake are
among the veterans with expiring contracts.
The team could also decide to shift away from
quarterback Ryan
Tannehill, who has been with Miami throughout his career, which
began in 2012. Tannehill's career 49.1 QBR ranks 33rd out of 39 quarterbacks
with at least 1,000 pass attempts in that span. Only Matt Schaub, Brock
Osweiler, Derek Carr, Blake Bortles, Brian Hoyer and Blaine
Gabbert rank lower.
5. BUFFALO BILLS
If the Bills' leadership has shown us anything, it's a
willingness to churn the roster and coaching staff almost constantly. They are
well into a roster overhaul that should remain in high gear as the team tries
to upgrade most offensive positions around quarterback Josh Allen.
Additional draft choices in the fourth, fifth and seventh rounds could help
Buffalo keep the churn going.
Buffalo needs a No. 1 receiver, multiple offensive linemen,
a tight end to succeed Charles Clay and
a running back to succeed LeSean McCoy.
There are needs on defense as well, even if 35-year-old pass-rusher Lorenzo
Alexander re-signs with the team.
6. GREEN BAY
PACKERS
Firing Mike McCarthy during the season showed the Packers
weren't going to sit around and hope for the team to improve. They were eager
to get started on an overhaul. With a new coach -- Matt LaFleur -- and
second-year GM facing elevated expectations entering Aaron Rodgers'
age-35 season, the Packers have work to do.
Nick Perry, Bryan Bulaga, Randall Cobb, Clay Matthews and Jimmy Graham combined
to start 57 of the 64 games they played this season, but Graham and Matthews
were the only ones to play every game. They were hardly dynamic contributors.
Matthews, 33, and Cobb, 28, are scheduled for free agency. Bulaga has one
relatively affordable year left on his deal and has battled serious injuries.
The safety position could get a makeover, as could the tight
end position, where the team could conceivably part with Graham, Marcedes
Lewis and Lance
Kendricks. Graham's contract carries a $5 million roster bonus in
March and a $12.6 million cap figure if he's on the roster.
7. CAROLINA
PANTHERS
The Panthers fielded the second-youngest starters in the
receiver-eligible slots -- running back, wide receiver and tight end -- while
fielding the oldest starters overall. That would seem nearly impossible; except
that Carolina's defensive starters were the oldest in the NFL on average at
29.4 (Baltimore was second at 28.8, with Philadelphia a distant third at 27.8).
Thomas Davis, Mike Adams and Julius
Peppers were all age 35-or-older starters on a defense that
plummeted from 10th to 24th in ESPN's efficiency rankings. Tight end Greg Olsen missed
seven games, which suppressed the average age for Carolina's starting tight
ends, but he is 33 and coming off another season-ending foot injury. Olsen
remains signed through 2020 and could bounce back strong, but after missing 16
of the past 32 games, his future could be in question.
Although Carolina has some good young players to build
around, the coming offseason provides an opportunity to overhaul the defense,
which could lead to relatively significant roster turnover. The offensive line
also could see significant turnover, helping to push Carolina higher on this
list.
8. DETROIT LIONS
The Lions could be aggressive with their roster as they
continue to remake the team to coach Matt Patricia's liking. Defensive
end Ezekiel Ansah,
guard T.J. Lang and
safety Glover Quin are
three prominent veterans to watch. How many will return for another season with
the Lions?
GM Bob Quinn said quarterback Matthew
Stafford will return as the starter. That always seemed to be
the most likely scenario amid rumors the team could move its 10-year starter.
(Then again, what else could a GM plausibly say?)
9. JACKSONVILLE
JAGUARS
Owner Shad Khan retained the Jaguars' leadership, but there
could be turnover on the offensive side in particular.
Jacksonville ranked first on offense and last on defense in
number of 2018 snaps played by veterans without contracts for next season.
The team will have a new offensive coordinator and must
decide whether to bring back quarterback Blake Bortles for
the final year of his contract.
Executive vice president Tom Coughlin sharply criticized running backs Leonard
Fournette and T.J. Yeldon
for conduct he considered selfish, calling into question their futures with the
team. Yeldon is scheduled to become a free agent. The team's move to void Fournette's contract guarantees could have been a
prelude to unloading him.
Changes on the offensive line also could be coming. The
Jaguars got a league-high 3,416 snaps from offensive linemen without contracts
for next season. Elsewhere on offense, starting receiver Donte
Moncrief played on a one-year contract.
10. PHILADELPHIA
EAGLES
Quarterback Nick Foles could
be the headliner to leave Philly this offseason, depending on a few things. The
team needs to overhaul the cornerback position with or without Ronald Darby,
who can become a free agent. The defense and running game could be two areas
hit hardest by change.
Defensive end Brandon
Graham, 30, is the Eagles' only 16-game starter without a contract
for 2019, but quite a few "name" players have expiring deals. That
list includes linebacker Jordan Hicks (12
starts), Darby (nine), safety Corey Graham(nine),
defensive tackle Haloti Ngata (nine),
receiver Golden Tate (seven),
receiver Jordan
Matthews (three), defensive back Corey Graham (nine),
halfback Jay Ajayi (three),
receiver Mike Wallace (two)
and scatback Darren
Sproles.
Michael
Bennett has seemingly played well enough to return, but his
contract carries no cap consequences if the Eagles decide his $7 million price
tag is too steep.
11. TAMPA BAY
BUCCANEERS
A defensive overhaul of some magnitude awaits after the
Buccaneers gave up a league-worst 29.0 points per game (they were 30th in
efficiency). They'll have a new coach -- Bruce Arians -- as well, although the
decision to stick with GM Jason Licht and quarterback Jameis
Winston suggests the team could make another run with this
offensive core, minus notable pieces such as Desean
Jackson.
The question on defense is whether the overhaul could go
deep enough to affect expensive front-line players such as Jason
Pierre-Paul or even Gerald McCoy.
12. DENVER
BRONCOS
It's not yet clear how far GM John Elway will go in
attempting to end a three-year absence from the playoffs, but the assumption is
that he will be active.
Offensive linemen Billy Turner, Jared
Veldheer and Matt Paradis combined
for 32 starts this season. All can become free agents. Overall, Denver ranks
fifth in 2018 snaps played by veterans without contracts for 2019. That list
includes cornerback Bradley Roby,
whose first season as a full-time starter wasn't strong enough to ensure his
future in Denver.
Will quarterback Case Keenum return?
Denver guaranteed $7 million of his salary next season. The team might be able
to win with him if its defense were elite. However, a Broncos defense that once
ranked first (2015) and second (2016) in ESPN's efficiency metric has fallen to
11th (2017) and 19th (2018) more recently.
13. LOS ANGELES
RAMS
The Rams have been active in the trade market and could
continue on that path as they try to reload. There could be notable holes to
fill.
Guard Rodger
Saffold, safety Lamarcus
Joyner, defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh and
defensive end Dante Fowler are four high-profile contributors who might
not return.
The assumption is that left tackle Andrew
Whitworth and center John Sullivan
will return for the final year of their contracts. As the oldest starters in
the league at their positions, the end is approaching, however. Zac Taylor's
departure to become the Bengals' coach is the most notable coaching change so
far.
14. KANSAS CITY
CHIEFS
The Chiefs rank second to the Jets with 7,865 snaps from
players without contracts for 2019.
That includes a league-high 2,791 from defensive backs, led
by Steven Nelson, Ron Parker and Orlando Scandrick.
Keeping free-agent pass-rusher Dee Ford
will presumably be a priority, but changes could be coming to other areas of
the defense.
15. BALTIMORE
RAVENS
The Ravens will not necessarily overhaul their roster, but
important changes lie ahead.
Eric DeCosta will take over for longtime GM Ozzie
Newsome. Joe Flacco could
be on his way out now that Lamar Jackson has
taken over at quarterback. Even John Harbaugh's future as coach is in some
question as teams wonder whether Harbaugh might be available in a trade pending
resolution to his contract situation.
16. ATLANTA
FALCONS
Firing all three coordinators following an injury-plagued
2018 season signaled increased urgency that could drive offseason activity.
Much of that activity could go toward revamping both lines of scrimmage.
Nine offensive and defensive linemen who started games for
Atlanta this season can become free agents. Defensive tackle Grady Jarrett heads
that list and will presumably remain a priority to re-sign.
17. NEW ENGLAND
PATRIOTS
This feels almost like any other Patriots offseason now that
the 2017-18 drama surrounding Tom Brady and
Bill Belichick has subsided. Assuming both return, the Patriots still could be
headed for some significant changes.
The Patriots could overhaul their receiving corps. Josh Gordon is
already gone. Chris Hogan, Phillip
Dorsett and Cordarrelle
Patterson are eligible for free agency.
Tight end Rob
Gronkowski's future could be the biggest question. He has one year
and $9 million left on his contract and has deflected questions about
retirement. The Patriots tried to trade him a year ago. Will they want him back
at that price? Brian Flores' departure from the coaching staff to become the
Dolphins' coach means some turnover will spill over to the coaching staff.
18. WASHINGTON
REDSKINS
This Redskins offseason could go any number of directions.
Will owner Daniel Snyder stay the course with team president Bruce Allen and
the rest of the team's football leadership? Will quarterback Alex Smith recover
from his career-threatening leg injury and continue as the
starter?
Aside from the Kirk Cousins drama
of recent offseasons, the Redskins have been rather conventional in their
approach to free agency, distancing themselves from Snyder's previous
reputation for expensive splashes. Will that change now that fan apathy is a
leading storyline surrounding the team?
Whether the Redskins are in the market for a starting
quarterback could affect their approach to the rest of the roster.
19. NEW YORK
GIANTS
The Giants could rocket up this list if they decided to part
with Eli Manning and
move on from expensive veterans such as Olivier
Vernon, Janoris
Jenkins and Alec Ogletree.
Making those moves would amount to an admission the Giants are rebuilding.
Execs from other teams tend to think the Giants will bring back Manning for the
final year of his contract, which could signal staying the course overall as
well.
20. HOUSTON
TEXANS
One evaluator said he thought the Texans might undergo
bigger changes one year from now, but there is potential for an overhaul now.
With Jadeveon
Clowney, Tyrann
Mathieu and Kareem
Jackson eligible for free agency, Houston ranks fourth in 2018
snaps by defensive veterans with expiring contracts. Who will return?
One fear heading into 2018 was that the Texans wouldn't be
able to support Deshaun
Watson sufficiently in part because they had given up so much
draft capital to get him. That could change this offseason as Houston holds
extra picks in the second and fourth rounds. Those picks could help the Texans
overhaul their offensive line.
21. SAN FRANCISCO
49ERS
Much of the 49ers' offseason will consist of getting Jimmy
Garoppolo healthy for what amounts to a do-over on the 2018 season.
The team needs to upgrade its defense, however, so there could be some churn on
that side of the ball, especially in the secondary, where Jimmie Ward is
among the potential free agents.
22. CLEVELAND
BROWNS
The Browns ranked third on this list last offseason. They
appear much more settled now that John Dorsey is entering his second offseason
as GM and Baker
Mayfield is established as the long-term quarterback. Cleveland
got a league-low 2,042 snaps from veteran players without contracts for 2019,
led by offensive lineman Greg Robinson with
463. That's a reflection of the fact that the Browns' key players are young.
Dorsey can now go about supplementing the roster instead of overhauling it.
There will be changes, but probably not sweeping ones.
23. SEATTLE
SEAHAWKS
The big Seattle overhaul took place last offseason, but it's
not finished. Earl Thomas will
surely leave in free agency, spelling the official end to the Legion of Boom.
Linebacker K.J. Wright turns
30 this summer and also could exit in free agency (Seattle over the past year
has become averse to handing out third contracts to players with injury
concerns). Pass-rusher Frank Clark,
nickel corner Justin
Coleman, left guard J.R. Sweezy and
right guard D.J. Fluker are
also among the prominent contributors without contracts for next season.
24. INDIANAPOLIS
COLTS
The Colts are still relatively early in the rebuilding
process, which was easy to forget when watching them rally from a 1-5 start to
reach the playoffs. GM Chris Ballard figures to focus on the defensive front
and finding another cornerback as Indy seeks to take another step in the
building process. Welcoming back young wideout Deon Cain from
injury could be the most important move on offense. Indy could have more than
$100 million in salary-cap space, but that doesn't mean Ballard is going to
load up on expensive purchases.
25. CINCINNATI
BENGALS
Most signs point to Cincinnati hiring a coach already
familiar with the organization, which could indicate the Bengals will not stray
from their well-established approach. They don't have a long list of key
starters scheduled for free agency. They generally have not been aggressive
movers in free agency or the trade market. And so here they are at No. 25, only
three spots higher than last offseason, subject to change if the Bengals depart
from past form.
26. TENNESSEE
TITANS
The Titans rank relatively low on the assumption that Marcus
Mariota will most likely return as the starting quarterback. There
will be changes in the defensive front seven following Brian Orakpo's retirement and with Derrick
Morgan eligible to become a free agent. Those two combined for
25 starts this season. Tennessee will presumably find an interior lineman to
pair with Jurrell Casey while
adding at least one outside rusher to replace Orakpo.
27. PITTSBURGH
STEELERS
The Steelers will almost surely part ways with running
back Le'Veon Bell. Unloading receiver Antonio Brown seems
much less likely, but the drama surrounding his situation raises questions for
the short term, at least. Overall, however, the Steelers figure to focus on
reloading more than rebuilding.
28. MINNESOTA
VIKINGS
The offensive line is the one area where Minnesota could be
in for an overhaul to some degree. The Vikings need to settle on a long-term
successor to line coach Tony Sparano, who died from arteriosclerotic heart
disease in July. They also need to upgrade the personnel to the extent
resources allow. The defense is mostly set after the Vikings re-signed their
most important players on that side of the ball. Linebacker Anthony Barr and
tackle Sheldon
Richardson might not fit into the picture. Both can become free
agents.
29. CHICAGO BEARS
The Bears made their big changes last offseason when they
signed veteran pass-catchers and made the trade for Khalil Mack.
They're in position to bring back nearly all of their important players from
2018, but they will presumably be more conservative in their offseason acquisitions.
30. LOS ANGELES
CHARGERS
The Chargers appear likely to return largely intact while
trying to win with a highly productive veteran quarterback in his late 30s
(Philip Rivers turned 37 in December). They will want to upgrade their
offensive line and supplement other areas of the roster, but now is not the
time for an overhaul.
31. NEW ORLEANS
SAINTS
The Saints could supplement their roster at receiver and in
the secondary, among other spots, but their approach figures to be all about
keeping open their championship window, not building another one. Mark Ingram is
the biggest name on the Saints' free-agent list. He started six games and
played 342 snaps.
32. DALLAS
COWBOYS
The Cowboys figure to be big spenders this offseason, but
mostly to keep their own players. Re-signing a young core featuring Dak Prescott, Ezekiel
Elliott, Amari Cooper and DeMarcus Lawrence figures to be a bigger priority than
overhauling the roster, even if Dallas shows interest in Seattle safety Earl Thomas.
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