Saturday, February 9, 2019

AFC NORTH GRADES AND OFFSEASON QUESTIONS


The Steelers averaged more than 11 wins per season from 2014 to 2017 but made 2018 more difficult with a three-game losing streak over a stretch of AFC West matchups in November and December. Defeating New England for the first time since 2011 was a breakthrough, but in a season when a playoff bye was attainable with more consistent play, the Steelers’ many lapses let the Ravens keep pace in the AFC North. 
The Pittsburgh Steelers ended the season with a 16-13 win over the Cincinnati Bengals to finish 9-6-1. Here’s a recap of the season and what’s next:
Season grade: Below-average. This season was well below the Steelers’ standards. They averaged more than 11 wins per game from 2014-17 but made 2018 more difficult with a three-game losing streak over a stretch of AFC West matchups in November and December. Defeating New England for the first time since 2011 was a breakthrough, but in a year when a playoff bye was attainable with more consistent play, the Steelers’ many lapses let the Baltimore Ravens keep pace in the AFC North. Considering the talent across the roster, it’s hard to escape the belief the Steelers could have done more with what they had. The largely lethargic Week 17 performance against Cincinnati highlights that belief.
Season in review: The Steelers faced tumult to start the season as Le'Veon Bell skipped Week 1, a decision that turned into a season-long holdout. Behind a stout offensive line and a proven passing game, tailback Conner remerged as a legitimate threat. Despite a relatively healthy roster, the Steelers’ 1-2-1 start set the wrong tone for a contender. The Steelers recovered, like they usually do, and the rest of the season featured an amalgam of explosive performances and uneven play. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger earned career highs in touchdowns and passing yards. Young stars such as T.J. Watt and JuJu Smith-Schuster strengthened their breakout campaigns in year two. But the Steelers consistently ranked near the bottom of the NFL in turnover margin, which sort of defined their season. Going four games without an interception in the second half of the year resulted in three losses during that stretch. They couldn’t dictate the tempo consistently enough, and closing out games was often a struggle.
He said it: "We can beat anybody. We can also lose to anybody." -- Steelers guard David DeCastro
OFFSEASON QUESTIONS
What is the Steelers’ definitive plan at running back? The Steelers technically aren’t done with Bell, a reality that casts a pall over the offseason until a firm decision is made: Transition tag Bell or let him walk into unrestricted free agency. The Steelers could argue the tag should be worth somewhere between $9 million and $10 million, resorting to the slotted 2017 number since Bell skipped a year. But the Collective Bargaining Agreement says Bell deserves 120 percent of his last salary ($14.5 million). The tag would allow Bell to negotiate with other teams with the Steelers having the right to match any offer. But they might want to wash themselves of the Bell saga altogether. In that case, they have Conner and fifth-round pick Jaylen Samuels to develop as the future of the position. Both produced in expanded roles this season.
What will they do with Roethlisberger’s contract? Roethlisberger’s deal expires in March 2020, and the Steelers never relied more on Big Ben’s arm to win games than this season. The 15-year veteran performed among the league leaders in passing yards, touchdowns, passing attempts and interceptions. The mushrooming quarterback market calls for Roethlisberger to earn around $30 million per year, and with massive salaries for Bell and linebacker Ryan Shazier off the books, the Steelers will have cap space with which to maneuver. The Steelers drafted quarterbacks Josh Dobbs and Mason Rudolph in back-to-back years, but this is still Roethlisberger’s show. A three-year deal would take Roethlisberger close to age 40 and expand the Super Bowl window.
What does the defense need to get over the top? The Steelers' defense has been stuck on decent-to-good for a few years now. The leap to greatness has not been made. The Steelers consistently get pressure with their front seven behind Cam Heyward, Stephon Tuitt and T.J. Watt. They ranked among the top 10 in rushing defense and total defense late in the year. Joe Haden leads a secondary that experienced ups and downs in 2018 but made plays down the stretch. From sub package linebackers to hybrid safeties, the Steelers tried just about everything at the inside linebacker spot opposite Vince Williams. The draft could provide a long-term solution for the loss of Shazier. Grab a speedy, rangy linebacker, maybe another corner, and Pittsburgh will be closer to a finished product. First, it must decide what to do with embattled corner Artie Burns, who was demoted early in his third season.
The Ravens lost in the wild-card round to the Chargers. A poor showing in the playoffs aside, the Ravens believe they’ve found their next franchise quarterback in Lamar Jackson, and they finished with the No. 1 defense for only the second time in team history.  The Baltimore Ravens ended the season a with a 23-17 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers in an AFC wild-card game on Sunday. Here's a recap of the season and what's next:
Season grade: Above average. A poor showing in the playoffs aside, the Ravens believe they’ve found their next franchise quarterback in Lamar Jackson, and they finished with the No. 1 defense for only the second time in team history. Baltimore had one of the more impressive turnarounds of the season, going from 4-5 at the bye to AFC North champion. The season ended with a disappointing home playoff loss, but the Ravens have to be excited about their foundation going forward with the combination of Jackson and Coach John Harbaugh.
Season in review: In winning their first division title since 2012, the Ravens also ended a three-year playoff drought. The season looked like it was spiraling downward when the Ravens reached the bye on a three-game losing streak and starting quarterback Joe Flacco was sidelined with a hip injury. But Jackson sparked an unexpected turnaround, turning a pass-oriented offense to a run-dominated one. The rookie first-round pick went 6-1 in the regular season, the second-best seven-game start since the 1970 merger (Ben Roethlisberger was 7-0 in 2004). He led all NFL quarterbacks with 695 yards rushing and did enough in the passing game to lead the Ravens to their first double-digit win season since 2014. The Chargers solved Jackson for three quarters Sunday in their second meeting of the season, playing most of the game with seven defensive backs and containing the run. Defensively, this will likely rank as the Ravens’ best group behind the ones in 2000 and 2006. Baltimore finished the regular season ranked in the top five in fewest total yards, rushing yards, passing yards and points allowed.
He said it: "Every decision is based on what makes us the strongest possible team we can be. ... That's what it boils down to. That's how we feel about this decision and we're rolling." -- Harbaugh in explaining why he chose Jackson over Flacco as the starting quarterback on Dec. 13.
OFFSEASON QUESTIONS
Will the Ravens sign Harbaugh to an extension? There's no uncertainty about Harbaugh in 2019. The Ravens announced on Dec. 21 that Harbaugh will continue to coach the team next season and the sides are working on an extension. But, in an unusual twist, Harbaugh has been evasive when asked about the news, calling it a "non-story." That has prompted speculation that Harbaugh will finish out the remaining one year left on his contract and see what he would command in the open market. Owner Steve Bisciotti has never let money get in the way of making what he feels is the right decision at head coach. He fired Brian Billick in 2007 even though he had to pay him for three more years. So, if Bisciotti wants Harbaugh long term, he will do everything in his power to keep him. It could make for an awkward 2019 if Harbaugh elects not to agree to an extension. At least two teams pondering a head-coaching change are considering calling the Ravens to inquire about Harbaugh, league sources told ESPN’s Adam Schefter.
How much progress can Jackson make in the passing game? With four quarterbacks drafted before him this season, Jackson exceeded expectations in compiling a 6-1 record in the regular season and being the cog in one of the more unique run-heavy offenses. His biggest area of development is obvious. Jackson has to become more accurate in the passing game, which was especially evident against the Chargers on Sunday, and drive more passes downfield as well as outside the numbers. Coaches and players have defended Jackson’s ability to throw the ball, but he finished with a 58.2 completion rate and an average of 157 passing yards per game in his seven regular-season starts. That forced Jackson to run the ball more than any other quarterback in his first season as a starter and exposed him to too many hits. In order for the Ravens' offense to evolve, they have to be able to count on Jackson as a passer.
How much will new GM Eric DeCosta overhaul the roster? DeCosta will face several tough decisions in taking over for Ozzie Newsome, who is stepping down after being the only general manager in the franchise’s 23-year history. The Ravens’ top free agents are linebacker Terrell Suggs, the most tenured player on the roster, as well as Pro Bowl middle linebacker C.J. Mosley and wide receiver John Brown. Suggs will enter free agency for the first time in his career, and it’s unknown whether the Ravens would extend him more than a one-year deal. Its surprising Baltimore hasn’t reached an extension with Mosley, an indication the sides might part ways. Flacco, the former Super Bowl MVP and the starter for the past 11 years, is not expected to return. Baltimore is expected to release Flacco if it can’t trade him to someone like the Washington Redskins or Jacksonville Jaguars. Baltimore can free up $10.5 million in cap space by parting with him before June 1 and $18.5 million after that date. Other salary-cap cut candidates include: cornerback Jimmy Smith ($9.5 million in cap savings) and safety Eric Weddle ($6.5 million).
The Browns' strong finish generates a lot of excitement for the future and that begins and ends with the quarterback. General manager John Dorsey nailed it when he made Baker Mayfield the first overall pick of the 2018 draft. Mayfield played with far more savvy than many veterans and revived the Browns' offense. 
The Cleveland Browns ended the season a with a 26-24 loss to the Baltimore Ravens to finish 7-8-1. Here's a recap of the season and what's next:
Season grade: Above-average. The Browns' strong finish generates a lot of excitement for the future, and that begins and ends with the quarterback. General manager John Dorsey nailed it when he made Baker Mayfield the first overall pick of the 2018 draft. Mayfield played with far more savvy than many veterans, and revived the Browns' offense with a record-setting season when he set the mark for most TD passes by a rookie. It took a midseason coaching change to bring things together, but when the Browns jelled they played like a team that should compete for a playoff spot in 2019.
Season in review: There were two elements to 2019. The first centered on coach Hue Jackson, offensive coordinator Todd Haley and quarterback Tyrod Taylor. They were going to guide the Browns. But Jackson won just two of the first eight games, Haley did not work out and Taylor started three games before losing his job to Mayfield, who took firm hold of it the second he stepped on the field. When the Browns fell to 2-5-1, Jackson and Haley were fired, and defensive coordinator Gregg Williams was named interim coach with Freddie Kitchens offensive coordinator. The entire season changed. Mayfield used more quick drops and found synergy with Kitchens. Williams made everything competitive, pitting starters against starters in practice. Mayfield talked of a reset, and the Browns responded by playing Kansas City well in a loss, then reeling off five wins in the last seven games. The Browns finally flipped the script on the losing culture, and buoyed by Mayfield, rookie running back Nick Chubb, Dorsey and an aggressive defense that includes young talent like Denzel Ward and Myles Garrett, they point to 2019 with optimism and high expectations.
He said it: "When I woke up this morning, I was feeling pretty dangerous." -- Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield, after the Browns' win over Atlanta, uttering a phrase that was his rallying cry at Oklahoma and which became the Browns' in 2018.
OFFSEASON QUESTIONS
Who's the coach? Dorsey's task a year ago was to identify and find a quarterback. Having checked off that task, Dorsey now must find the coach who can guide the quarterback. This hire will be every bit as important as finding the quarterback, because this hire will guide Mayfield's long-term future.
Who calls plays? Kitchens was little-known and much-questioned when he took over play calling duties. But he stepped into the job like he'd done it all his life. Kitchens used different formations and creativity to jump start the offense. He aligned with Mayfield, and relied on his players to tell him what they liked and what would work. His impact was immense. Keeping him as the playcaller would seem wise, but if the Browns hire an offensive coach, that new coach may well want to call the plays himself.
How will Dorsey use all that salary cap room? The Browns are projected to have close to $80 million in salary cap room in 2019, an enormous amount of space that will again allow Dorsey to add veterans to the roster. He will need to save some of that space for draft picks and future contract extensions -- Joe Schobert's is one deal that is up after next season -- but he still will have tremendous flexibility to bolster certain positions. Among them: Receiver, offensive line depth, linebacker and secondary depth. Dorsey was a whirlwind last offseason; he has the ability to be just as busy this one.
The Bengals started the season 4-1 and seemed prepared to make a playoff run. However, they came out of their bye week with five straight losses and got blown out by several teams. They’ll miss the playoffs for the third straight year. 
The Cincinnati Bengals ended the season with a 16-13 loss at the Pittsburgh Steelers to finish at 6-10. Here's a recap of the season and what's next:
Season grade: Below average. Expectations weren’t high for the Bengals coming into the 2018 season. In fact, they’ll finish with a record similar to what many pundits predicted. However, it is a disappointment because the Bengals started the campaign 4-1 and seemed prepared to make a playoff run for the first time since the 2015 season. However, they came out of their bye week with five straight losses and got blown out by several teams. They’ll miss the playoffs for the third straight year.
Season in review: Bad luck surrounded the Bengals from the beginning, as their best players couldn’t stay on the field. They lost starting quarterback Andy Dalton, their best receiver in A.J. Green, tight end Tyler Eifert, middle linebacker Preston Brown and a number of others. Meanwhile, fans had long grown frustrated with the Marvin Lewis regime and stopped showing up to home games. This will be a season to forget in Cincinnati.
He said it: “It is very frustrating. I have never been a part of a losing program. I am never going to get comfortable with being part of it. At the end of the day, I am going to take it for what it is this year, build and try to get better and get ready for next year. ... I promise you, we are not going to be in this for long and that is a fact.” -- Bengals running back Joe Mixon
OFFSEASON QUESTIONS
Will Marvin Lewis be coaching the Bengals in 2019? Lewis’ future has been a question mark for the past several years, and it’s certainly no different with the Bengals out of the playoffs again. Lewis’ 0-7 playoff record will always be a stain on his tenure, and fans seem to be fed up with the status quo. Although Lewis, the second-longest tenured head coach in the NFL, is signed through the 2019 season, this certainly could be the year the franchise moves forward without him.
What is Vontaze Burfict’s future? Burfict signed a contract extension last season, but it has been a failure so far, marked by suspensions and injuries. What’s more concerning is Burfict’s history of head injuries. He sustained his seventh concussion and second in a month against the Cleveland Browns last week. All of those factors could mean the Bengals part ways with him. However, the Bengals never found a real backup plan behind Burfict, and the younger linebackers haven’t panned out. Preston Brown’s contract also is up this season, so the Bengals need to figure out how to revamp that group if those two aren’t in their future.
How can the defense be fixed? The Bengals do have some of the components necessary for a good defense. Defensive tackle Geno Atkins and defensive end Carlos Dunlap were signed to extensions, while cornerback William Jackson and safety Jessie Bates are talented young players who could be the next generation of Cincinnati Pro Bowlers. The defense fell apart this season for a number of reasons: Defensive coordinator Teryl Austin was fired before the season was over, the defensive line didn’t get enough pressure and tackling was an issue. The biggest priority, though, is the linebacker position.

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