PITTSBURGH PENGUINS

JIM RUTHERFORD STILL HAS SOME WORK TO DO

General Manager Jim Rutherford has made several trades to improve the Pittsburgh Penguins. But his work isn’t done yet.

Aside from an eight-game win streak that was largely driven by an elite stretch of play from Matt Murray, the Pittsburgh Penguins have been a very average and inconsistent team through 53 games. Generally speaking, the teams’ forwards and goaltending duo have been pretty good. Beyond the top pair, the defense has been pretty bad. Let’s dive in.

Over the last 30 games, the Penguins generate the majority of the even-strength shot attempts with only two of their defensemen on the ice. To no surprise, they are Kris Letang (52.68%) and Brian Dumoulin (51.23%).

Together, they are a top-five pairing across the NHL. The Penguins would be out of the playoff picture if this pairing has not played at such a high-level. Letang is having a career year and is worthy of a Norris Trophy nomination.

With Jack Johnson on the ice this season, opposing teams are scoring 61% of the even-strength goals. Over the last 30 games, that number drops to 57%. Progress! Simply put, Johnson is a human anchor.

The Penguins high-end players are likely aware of this, as they rarely pass him the puck when he is open. He has no puck skills. The team is essentially shorthanded with Johnson on the ice. He is in the midst of his worst possession season since 2013 and is well below-average in every single statistical category. The eye-test matches the data here.

Here’s to hoping that the return of Justin Schultz can save Olli Maatta and help Evgeni Malkin. Maatta has hindered Malkin’s performance this season. When the former is on the ice at even-strength with the latter this season, the Penguins control 45% of the shot attempts, 47% of the scoring chances, and score 47% of the goals.

With Malkin away from Maatta, the Penguins control 52% of the shot attempts, 56% of the scoring chances, and score 49% of the goals. Malkin has been inconsistent this season, but he has had to drop back and assist with defensive-zone breakouts far more frequently this season. This is in large part due to the lack of mobility and puck skills on the Penguins bottom two defense pairs.

Rookie Juuso Riikola has a grand total of two even-strength points in 30 games this season. That is not going to cut it. To provide some context, Schultz has played in four games this season and has more points at even strength play (3) than him.

Over his last 18 games, Riikola has been average, as Pittsburgh generates 51% of the even-strength shots and scoring chances. They have scored 50% of the even-strength goals with Riikola on the ice. The tangible offense has not been there, but Riikola could be a serviceable player on the third pair with anybody not named Jack Johnson or Olli Maatta.

I feel for Marcus Pettersson. He has had to carry the anchor that is Johnson. With them on the ice this season, Pittsburgh controls just 47% of the shot share. Playing with Johnson has prevented us of finding out what the potential ceiling is of the 22-year-old Pettersson.

If the status quo remains, this pair will be torched in the playoffs. Johnson sees his possession numbers drop significantly when he is on the ice without Pettersson. In 55 even-strength minutes without Johnson, Pettersson has been a slightly better player.

Unfortunately, the Penguins missed out on acquiring Jake Muzzin. He would have given their defense core a great boost and helped them form the best defense core of the Crosby/Malkin era. Instead, they will be asking Justin Schultz to jump into a top-four role immediately after missing four months of game action.

If Pittsburgh has serious Stanley Cup aspirations, they absolutely have to upgrade their blueline within the next 18 days. Jim Rutherford will likely have to part ways with the 2019 first round pick in order to do so.