Saturday, February 9, 2019

NFC SOUTH GRADES AND OFFSEASON QUESTIONS


ATLANTA FALCONS
The Falcons were picked as Super Bowl contenders entering the season yet finished with their first losing season in four years under coach Dan Quinn. The Falcons couldn't figure out how to close games early in the season. A loss at Cleveland was the beginning of a five-game skid that knocked the Falcons out of playoff contention. 
The Atlanta Falcons ended the season with a 34-32 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to finish at 7-9. Here's a recap of the season and what's next:
Season grade: Below-average -- The Falcons were picked as Super Bowl contenders entering the season yet finished with their first losing season in four years under coach Dan Quinn. No one wanted to use it as an excuse, but injuries crippled the team, particularly on defense. Starting safeties Keanu Neal (ACL) and Ricardo Allen (Achilles) both suffered season-ending injuries, and Pro Bowl middle linebacker Deion Jones missed 10 games after foot surgery. And on offense, the loss of two-time Pro Bowl running back Devonta Freeman (groin) significantly affected the run game, with the Falcons sorely missing Freeman's toughness and elusive ability. Most figured the Falcons still had enough offensive firepower with Matt RyanJulio Jones, tight end Austin Hooper, and rookie Calvin Ridley. The offense, however, couldn't shoulder the load despite Ryan and Jones playing at a Pro Bowl level.
Season in review: The Falcons couldn't figure out how to close games early in the season, losing three September contests by six points or less. And just when it looked like the Falcons had things figured out, evening their record at 4-4 after a 38-14 win in Washington, everything imploded the very next week with a 28-16 loss at Cleveland. That was the beginning of a five-game losing streak that knocked the Falcons out of playoff contention. The defense understandably struggled to stop people, with key players lost for the season. The high-powered offense, however, became somewhat stale and predictable, averaging just 17.6 points per game during that critical five-game skid.
He said it: "It's a fighting team. We don't run away from nothing. We don't shy away from nothing. We had some mishaps this year; control what you can control. At the end of the day, we stuck together. You can't let outside noise affect us inside. We never had a cancer inside the building that's like pointing fingers. We could have got to there, but we didn't do that." -- Julio Jones
OFFSEASON QUESTIONS
Who will be the Falcons' coordinators in 2019? There's already been an NFL Network report about Quinn preparing to move on from offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian and defensive coordinator Marquand Manuel. Word is there is plenty of substance behind the report. Plus, longtime special teams coordinator Keith Armstrong could be out, too. The Falcons need to find an established veteran playcaller to pair with Ryan if they indeed replace Sarkisian. That person also needs to be committed to running the football. Former Seattle Seahawks coordinator Darrell Bevell, who was with Quinn in Seattle, has been mentioned as a possibility. So has former Texans and Broncos coach Gary Kubiak. Meanwhile, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Quinn take over the defensive playcalling if there's a void at defensive coordinator. He established himself as the coordinator of the league's top defense while with the Seahawks.
Which veterans will the Falcons move on from? The names mentioned the most have been defensive end Vic Beasley Jr. and cornerbacks Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford. Beasley, the eighth overall pick in the 2015 draft, hasn't had much production since his league-leading 15.5 sacks in 2016, although he's shown flashes. Beasley wants to secure a long-term deal, but there's no solid indication the Falcons want to make such a commitment. Meanwhile, Trufant and Alford already received extensions, Alford through 2020 and Trufant through 2022. The development of second-round pick Isaiah Oliver is likely to affect one of them, most likely Alford. Also, it would be hard to imagine the Falcons keeping running back Tevin Coleman after already paying Freeman. Coleman is in the last year of his deal and is likely to draw some free-agent interest because of his big-play ability.
What's on the line? We're not talking about jobs here, although it could be interpreted in that manner. The Falcons have to figure out how to shore up the offensive and defensive lines for next season so some of the same issues that led to the 2018 downfall don't weigh them down again next season. The team evaluators have to do a better job drafting interior offensive linemen who are ready to step into starting roles. The right tackle situation appears to be up in the air with starter Ryan Schraeder benched for Ty Sambrailo, and Sambrailo might not be the long-term answer. On defense, the Beasley situation makes things interesting because quality pass-rushers are hard to find. He has all the talent to be a great one but just hasn't developed. Parting with him would mean the Falcons would have to look at edge rusher as well as interior defensive lineman in the draft, with the need for a run-stuffer also pressing. At least the draft will be deep at defensive tackle, but not at edge rusher.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
Quarterback Cam Newton was playing, in his own words, the best football of his career 10 games into the season. He had adjusted smoothly to offensive coordinator Norv Turner's system. He looked like an MVP candidate and the Panthers were in a strong position to make the playoffs. Then Newton's right shoulder became an issue. 
The Carolina Panthers ended the season with a 33-14 win over the New Orleans Saints to finish at 7-9. Here's a recap of the season and what's next:
Season grade: Below-average -- The Panthers had high expectations for a run at the Super Bowl and appeared to have the talent to do it after a 6-2 start. Everything was clicking. Then it all fell apart. A seven-game losing streak ended all playoff hopes and raised speculation about the futures of coach Ron Rivera and general manager Marty Hurney. Owner David Tepper, who has made it no secret that his first, second and third priority is to win, has decided to stick with both, multiple sources told ESPN.com on Friday. Rivera said before the finale he was "truly disappointed" because the Panthers had opportunities to win down the stretch and make the playoffs. "That's probably one of the things I've struggled with, knowing that I think we're better than our record says, but at the end of the day, you are what your record is."
Season in review: Quarterback Cam Newton was playing, in his own words, the best football of his career 10 games into the season. He had adjusted smoothly to offensive coordinator Norv Turner's system. He looked like an MVP candidate, and the Panthers were in a strong position to make the playoffs. Then Newton's right shoulder became an issue to the point that he couldn't throw the deep ball, and it affected his timing with short passes in clutch situations. The Panthers finally shut him down for the final two games after a 12-9 loss to New Orleans that made it painfully clear that Newton's shoulder was a major issue. That also ended all realistic playoff hopes. The mantra since Newton was chosen with the first pick of the 2011 draft has been "As Cam Newton goes, so go the Panthers." When Newton couldn't go at an elite level, the dreams of a Super Bowl run went away.
He said it: "I wish I could say what the injury is, because I really don't know what it is, either. No matter how much you push, no matter how much you ice, anti-inflammatories you take ... trust me, I did it. Acupuncture, massages, it's not been a time a night went by I didn't have some type of work done on my arm. We just don't have the strength. ... You can rub magic dust on it, you can go to this person, go to that person ... you just come out, and it's still the same." -- Panthers quarterback Cam Newton after the loss to New Orleans on his throwing shoulder.
KEY OFFSEASON QUESTIONS
What is in store for Ron Rivera? The coach is three years removed from taking the Panthers to the Super Bowl. He's a two-time NFL Coach of the Year, so there's good reason for Tepper to stick with him. But this season's collapse and a failure to put together consecutive winning seasons in any of his eight seasons should have Rivera on a short leash next season. Players' refusal to quit under him despite adversity was the biggest positive from this season. "I feel pretty good about it," Rivera said Friday when asked about his future with the team. "My intention, and everything I've been doing, is working toward the future, and we'll go from there. My conversations with the owner have been all positive."
Just how serious is Newton's shoulder injury? Surgery doesn't appear necessary at the moment. But if that becomes an option, and even if it doesn't, the long-term impact has to be concerning. Carolina hasn't drafted a quarterback since Newton in 2011. It is time to invest a draft pick or money in free agency -- or both -- in finding a short-term and possibly long-term solution. It's doubtful the Panthers can lure a top free agent such as Nick Foles or Teddy Bridgewater without the guarantee of a chance to start because if Newton returns to full health, he is the starter -- at least under the current coaching staff. But can the Panthers trust Newton's shoulder? That is the biggest question entering the offseason.
What are the other big roster moves at play? An option at quarterback aside, the Panthers desperately need a young edge pass-rusher. Future Hall of Fame end Julius Peppers, 38, likely has played his last game. End Mario Addison is 31, and his production has dropped. The options in free agency are limited because of salary-cap space, so the draft may be the best option. Carolina also must decide whether to bring back Thomas Davis. The 35-year-old outside linebacker wants to return, but whether he can accept a greatly reduced role and lower salary will be among the issues. The Panthers also have big decisions to make on the offensive line. Center Ryan Kalil is retiring, and the left tackle spot could be up for grabs if Matt Kalil, who spent the season on injured reserve, isn't brought back. Devin Funchess, who came into the season as the No. 1 receiver, has lost that role to first-round pick DJ Moore. The organization appears to have moved on with no intent to re-sign Funchess. As solid as this roster is with young, dynamic playmakers around Newton, there are a lot of holes to fill.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
The 2018 season could not have been more of a roller-coaster ride in Tampa: an electrifying 2-0 start under backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick; the benching and reinsertion of starter Jameis Winston; the firing of defensive coordinator Mike Smith; a disgruntled DeSean Jackson requesting (and being denied) a trade; and yet another kicking change. 
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers ended the season with a 34-32 loss to the Atlanta Falcons to finish at 5-11. Here's a recap of the season and what's next:
Season grade: Below-average -- The 2018 season could not have been more of a roller-coaster ride in Tampa Bay: an electrifying 2-0 start under backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, the benching and re-insertion of starter Jameis Winston, the firing of defensive coordinator Mike Smith, a disgruntled DeSean Jackson requesting (and being denied) a trade and yet another kicking change. The result? Despite major upgrades on defense and more continuity on offense, the Bucs were no closer to becoming a winner than they were the previous season. In fact, Tampa Bay relieved coach Dirk Koetter of his duties as head coach following the Bucs' Week 17 loss.
Season in review: It wasn't the three-game suspension for Winston that marred the Buccaneers' 2018 season, as most expected -- they went 2-1 with Fitzpatrick during that span -- but the aftermath of the suspension. Winston and Fitzpatrick combined for a league-high 4.6 percent interception rate all while Koetter played quarterback roulette. The offensive line struggled to open holes in the running game -- Bucs running backs averaged 3.97 yards per attempt, 31st in the league. The defense had only one interception in 10 games. When Winston regained his job and cut down on the turnovers, the offense averaged 16.67 points in December against playoff teams. Smith's replacement, Mark Duffner, made improvements with the defense going from allowing 440 yards per game in Weeks 1-6 to 357 in Weeks 7-15. The Bucs' kicking game somewhat improved after moving on from Chandler Catanzaro to Cairo Santos. However, all the changes weren't enough to alter the Bucs' bottom line.
He said it: "We can't seem to get out of our own way almost. You can't really pinpoint one thing or one play, one player or anything like that. Until we find a way to either not make those critical errors or find a way to get over them, we're gonna continue to struggle to win games. ... Talent-wise, we know we're up there. Top to bottom, we have great players. But if your great players don't make plays every game, you're not gonna win." -- Buccaneers tight end Cameron Brate
OFFSEASON QUESTIONS
What will the 2019 season hold?Will Jason Licht remain the general manager or is a full house-cleaning in order? The general feeling has been that Licht, who signed a contract extension last offseason through 2019, will stay with the franchise as the Bucs announced he will be assisting in the search for a new head coach. If there is a total regime change, what will that mean for any possible roster turnover? When Lovie Smith came in, there were 16 new starters. When Greg Schiano succeeded Raheem Morris, there were 11. And with Winston returning, does this automatically mean DeSean Jackson wants out? Sources indicated to ESPN's Josina Anderson that Jackson wanted a "fresh start" with a different team. Chris Godwin also showed he's capable of being the No. 2 receiver.
Now that Winston is returning, who's the best coach to guide him?The Bucs will be sticking with Winston in 2019, believing he still gives them the best chance to win despite his stumbles and off-the-field issues. "I've grown in a lot of ways as a football player and as a man since I've been here," Winston said. "I would never put a cap or ceiling on how much I can grow. I will continue to get better -- that's it." So, who is the best coach to take him to the next level and help guide him off the field? Bruce Arians? Mike McCarthy? Jim Harbaugh? Could the Bucs pull off a trade for John Harbaugh? Would a reunion with Jimbo Fisher, or perhaps elevating Todd Monken be the answer?
What's the fate of Donovan Smith and Kwon Alexander? Left tackle and middle linebacker are critical positions. Sources told ESPN that before Alexander's season-ending ACL injury, his agents were seeking $12 million annually -- in other words, Luke Kuechly money. Sources also told ESPN that the Bucs were not willing to go above $10 million. As far as Smith, a franchise tag might be the best route here, giving him one more year to develop, but the team has only used that designation three times in franchise history. "I think Donovan is a much better player than he's given credit for," Koetter said. "Can he have some plays at times that don't look great to the eye test? Yes, most players do. I just think that Donovan is a much more valuable piece than people think."
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
NEW ORLEANS -- No way. Not again. The top-seeded New Orleans Saints fell victim to one of the most infamous officiating gaffes in sports history in Sunday's 26-23 overtime loss to the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Championship Game that coach Sean Payton said they will "probably never get over."
Who would have ever thought the Saints' season could have ended in an even more gut-wrenching fashion than last year's "Minneapolis Miracle" -- not to mention the 2011 heartbreaker at San Francisco that feels downright pleasant by comparison?
A missed pass interference call in the final minutes of regulation that was so stunning, egregious and unforgivable that "The No-Call" will forever take its place among the sports lexicon.
It was the first home playoff loss in the Payton-Drew Brees era. Worse yet, it cost them their best chance in nine years to reach a second Super Bowl together -- if not their last chance. Here's a recap of the season and what's next:
Season grade: Near perfection. The Saints came oh-so-close to their second Super Bowl trip in franchise history -- a long nine years after Payton and Brees first hoisted the Vince Lombardi Trophy. But the Saints ultimately couldn't hang on Sunday after jumping to a 13-0 lead -- thanks in large part to a controversial no-call by the officials on New Orleans' final drive of regulation. And it was a call Payton said he and the Saints will "probably never get over."
The Saints made a great run at it, earning the NFC's No. 1 seed with a 13-3 record, and the age-defying Brees posted the best passer rating of his career this season before turning 40 on Tuesday. But Brees' interception on the opening drive of overtime set up the Rams' game-winning field goal. Said Payton: "Man, I was proud of these guys. It's been a great season, it's a great group of guys that's worked extremely hard. To come off a tough loss like we did last year and put ourselves in this position -- right there in a position inside the 10-yard line to go to the Super Bowl -- I'm proud of every one of 'em."
Season in review: The end was stunning after the Saints felt destined to reach the Super Bowl for most of the season -- and for most of Sunday's game. But now the 2018 season will always be remembered for the officials' decision to not call pass interference on Rams cornerback Nickell Robey-Coleman against Tommylee Lewis in the final minutes of regulation and for Brees' throwing just his third interception in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome all season when he was hit as he threw on the opening drive of overtime.
Brees acknowledged the loss was even harder to take, knowing he might not get many more chances like this. But he said, "I plan on being here next year and making another run it."
Brees' 18th season was one of his best, as he finished the regular season with an NFL-record completion percentage of 74.4 and career-high passer rating of 115.7. He threw for 249 yards with two TDs and the interception on Sunday. At his hottest point, in the middle of the season, he threw a total of 15 TD passes during a four-game stretch in which the Saints averaged 44 points per game. But it wasn't just "all Brees, all the time" for one of Payton's most balanced teams yet. The Saints had five players named either first- or second-team All-Pro for the first time in franchise history -- including first-team wide receiver Michael Thomas, who set team records with 125 catches and 1,405 yards. And their run defense finished second in the NFL, led by defensive end Cameron Jordan, defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins and linebacker Demario Davis, among others. The Saints relied on their defense to win several games down the stretch as the offense struggled a bit because of depth issues at receiver and injury issues on the offensive line. The highlight of that defensive surge came when cornerback Marshon Lattimore intercepted two passes in the divisional-round playoff win against Philadelphia.
Unfortunately, that defense couldn't quite hang on enough after an outstanding start to Sunday's game. Former Saints receiver Brandin Cooks helped the Rams catch up with two big plays in the second and third quarters. Then, the Rams quickly marched downfield for a game-tying field goal attempt late in regulation and kicked the 57-yard winner in overtime.
Jordan was as upset as anybody in the Saints' locker room over the missed PI call, making cracks like, "Maybe the lights were too bright for him to see," and, "Blame it on the government shutdown, I don't know. At some point this s--- is ridiculous."
But Jordan was also quick to say, "We gotta put it on the defense. We had a chance to ... get them out of field-goal range. So that's on us. We had control for the whole 60 minutes and ended up losing in the final overtime. Words can't describe that. We were defeated at the end of the day, so we don't have the right to complain about the what ifs, the should've, the could've. At the end of the day we were able to take the field, and we needed to create a big turnover."
OFFSEASON QUESTIONS
Brees, Bridgewater and long-term QB plans: Unless Brees announces any surprise retirement plans, he'll come back for a 19th NFL season with a stacked roster that is poised to make another Super Bowl run. But it seems almost impossible for the Saints to keep both Brees and 26-year-old backup QB Teddy Bridgewater. The Saints traded a third-round pick last summer for Bridgewater and a sixth-rounder -- both because they wanted insurance at the position and because they wanted to get a closer look at a potential future successor for Brees. However, Bridgewater is now set to become an unrestricted free agent, so there's a good chance he will be lured away by big money and an opportunity to start right away. Brees is obviously still going strong, and he has said many times he believes he can keep playing at a high level until he's 45 -- though he has never specified that he wants to play that long. If Bridgewater does leave, the Saints might want to invest in a rookie QB. But that will be harder than ever this year because they don't have a first-, third- or fourth-round draft pick.
Will they keep Ingram? About six months ago, it seemed inevitable this would be Mark Ingram's final season in New Orleans, since he's scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent and they have Alvin Kamara as a No. 1 back. But the Saints had a much more difficult time replacing Ingram than expected during his four-game suspension to start the season after they auditioned several veterans and a sixth-round draft pick in the role. So now that they don't have many draft picks to work with, they might consider keeping Ingram in a one-two backfield punch that works so well -- if he doesn't command big dollars on the open market.
Ingram was one of the most visibly distraught players in the Saints' locker room after Sunday's game, shaking his head repeatedly during long pauses before answers. He described the PI call as "terrible." And when asked to describe how he feels, said, "S---, I can't say no words," before adding, "We gotta find a way to overcome it. We've bounced back before, so we just gotta find some way to get over it." And when asked if this could be his last game as a Saints, Ingram only mumbled, "I don't know."
Bad news, good news: The Saints' lack of draft picks is a definite concern, and they're not exactly rolling in salary-cap space -- though they do have a little cushion to work with. The good news is they also don't have many glaring roster needs. Tight end is near the top of the list, especially since veteran Benjamin Watson announced his plans to retire. But defensive end Alex Okafor and nose tackle Tyeler Davison are the only other starters scheduled to be free agents. Things will get more difficult in 2020, when Brees, Thomas and offensive linemen Max Unger and Andrus Peat are free agents, among others.

No comments: