Saturday, February 9, 2019

AFC SOUTH GRADES AND OFFSEASON QUESTIONS


HOUSTON TEXANS
The Texans overcame an 0-3 start to win the AFC South division title but lost in the wild-card round to the Colts. A nine-game winning streak helped Houston become the first team since 1992 to begin the season with an 0-3 record and win a division title. Read more.
The Houston Texans ended the season with a 21-7 loss to the Indianapolis Colts on Saturday in the wild-card round of the playoffs. The Texans finished the regular season with an 11-5 record. Here's a recap of the season and what's next:
Season grade: Above average. The Texans overcame an 0-3 start to win the AFC South division title. A nine-game winning streak helped Houston become the first team since 1992 to begin the season with an 0-3 record and win a division title.
Season in review: The 2018 season featured the return of All-Pro defensive lineman J.J. Watt, who registered 16 sacks, making himself a legitimate contender for the NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award. Edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney, safety Tyrann Mathieu and linebacker Benardrick McKinney spearheaded a defense that finished fourth in scoring defense, allowing 19.8 points per game.
Coach Bill O'Brien's offense averaged 27 points per game during the nine-game winning streak and survived the loss of wide receiver Will Fuller V in Week 7. Through seven games, Fuller had 503 receiving yards and four touchdowns. The Texans added veteran wideout Demaryius Thomas at the trade deadline, which helped make up for the loss of Fuller. Quarterback Deshaun Watson continued to wreak havoc on opposing defenses and DeAndre Hopkins finished with 115 receptions for 1,572 yards and 11 touchdowns.
He said it: "Look at the season. Starting 0-3, tacking on nine and winning 10 of the last 12, we earned the right to be here. It's a new year, a new season. This is the hardest business, its top notch and a whole new speed of the game. Every play counts and every moment counts. You can't slip up." -- Watson
OFFSEASON QUESTIONS
How can the Texans do a better job of protecting Watson? Houston has to invest further in the offensive line. Watson was sacked an average of 3.9 times per game during the regular season -- the highest total in the NFL -- and he was sacked three times in Saturday's loss to Indianapolis. He needs more time in the pocket, but not all of the blame should be placed on the offensive line. Watson does a great job of extending plays and breaking free of would-be tacklers, but there are other times when he holds onto the ball too long. Regardless, adding more talent up front is a must.
What should Houston do at running back? Starter Lamar Miller has one more year left on the four-year contract that lured him to Houston. At 28-years-old, Miller will hold a $7.2 million salary-cap number, but if he gets released he will only cost the team $1 million in dead cap money. There are some prospects such as Darrell Henderson from Memphis who can come in and challenge for a spot. Reserve back D'Onta Foreman spent most of the season on injured reserve after tearing his Achilles in November 2017, but should be a part of the backfield going forward.
Is Mathieu a necessity to re-sign? Mathieu brought a killer instinct to the secondary, and his ability to be used in the box as well as in center field is a testament to his versatility. Keeping him paired with Justin Reid, who is coming off a stellar rookie season, is something Houston needs to do. Mathieu finished the regular season with three sacks, two interceptions and eight pass breakups. There will be other safeties on the market, but the Texans have already seen what they have in Mathieu. He's a fit in the locker room and can continue to be a veteran presence next to Reid.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Nobody knew what to expect from quarterback Andrew Luck after he missed last season because of a shoulder injury he's been deadline with for nearly three years. The Colts also had a first-year head coach, offensive, defensive and special teams coaches and a relatively young roster. None of that mattered as Luck silenced the critics and returned to form. 
The Indianapolis Colts ended their season Saturday with a 31-13 playoff loss in Kansas City. The Colts finished the regular season 10-6. Here's a recap of the season and what's next:
Season grade: Above average. It's no longer strictly all about quarterback Andrew Luck for the Colts. The day he was hired, general manager Chris Ballard said he would not put together a team that relied on just one player. Ballard has lived up to that promise, as for the first time in Luck's seven NFL seasons it wasn't just about him. Special teams remained consistent. But the biggest difference is that the defense did its part under coordinator Matt Eberflus. The unit, which often failed to hold its end of the bargain early in Luck's career, was a strength by the second half of the season.
Season in review: Nobody knew what to expect from Luck after he missed last season and had been dealing with a shoulder injury for nearly three years. The Colts also had a first-year head coach, first-year offensive, defensive and special-teams coordinators and a relatively young roster. None of that mattered, as Luck silenced the critics and returned to form. He's arguably better than he has been at any point prior to his injury in 2015, as he was second in the NFL in touchdown passes (39) and posted a career high in completion percentage (67.3). A major part of the offensive success was due to having an offensive line to protect for Luck and open lanes for the running backs. The Colts had the fewest sacks allowed in the league (18). Head coach Frank Reich was able to keep the team together despite a 1-5 start and produce the most victories since the Colts won 11 in 2014. The foundation is set with Ballard, Reich, Luck and several building blocks, including linebacker Darius Leonard, defensive lineman Tyquan Lewis and guard Quenton Nelson, who was selected No. 6 overall in the 2018 draft.
He said it: "When you get a brand new head coach, one who has never been a head coach before, you kind of wonder how it's going to go. [Reich is] spot on, and ... they are headed in the right direction with Frank, Chris and the pieces they have already put on the roster and the pieces they will add going forward." -- Colts kicker Adam Vinatieri
OFFSEASON QUESTIONS
Will Ballard be a big spender during free agency? The Colts are projected to have an NFL high of $124 million in salary-cap space next offseason. Ballard has been pretty stingy when it comes to signing players during free agency, because his focus is to produce homegrown talent through the draft. He will likely be a little more open to spending, because he has started building through the draft and found some key players in Nelson, Leonard and running back Marlon Mack. But don't expect Ballard to treat free agency like its Christmas. He looks for players still in the prime of their career who also have the right character to fit in the Colts locker room.
Can the Colts find a No. 2 wide receiver to go with T.Y. Hilton? The second-best receiver on the roster wasn't actually a wide receiver. It was tight end Eric Ebron. Finding a second wideout to complement Hilton has been an ongoing problem for years. The likes of Hakeem Nicks, Andre Johnson, Ryan Grant and Donte Moncrief have all tried and failed to be the No. 2 wide receiver. Ebron and fellow tight end Jack Doyle will remain key figures in the passing game, but it'll help the offense even more if there is a dependable second wideout to go with Hilton. Rookie Deon Cain, who has size, might be an option if he can bounce back from a torn ACL that cost him the 2018 season.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
The Jacksonville Jaguars ended the season a with a 20-3 loss to the Houston Texans to finish 5-11. Here's a recap of the season and what's next:
Season grade: Below-average -- It's hard to believe the Jaguars were 10 minutes away from the Super Bowl last season. Nineteen starters returned, and yet the Jaguars finished with a losing record -- and double-digit losses -- for the seventh time in the past eight seasons. Injuries decimated the offensive line and tight end positions, Leonard Fournette missed six games with a hamstring injury, quarterback Blake Bortles regressed and got benched, and the defense, while still a top-10 unit statistically, didn't pressure the quarterback and force turnovers at the rate it did in 2017.
Season in review: September was pretty good (3-1 record) and in Week 2 the Jaguars avenged their AFC championship loss to New England, but things fell apart after a Week 4 victory against the New York Jets. Seven consecutive losses followed as injuries mounted, Fournette was out of the lineup and Bortles regressed to his 2016 form. The supposedly elite defense faltered as multiple coverage busts and breakdowns resulted in big plays, including a disastrous first half against the Colts when tight ends caught three TD passes. And the offense became too one-dimensional with Fournette ailing. Coach Doug Marrone fired offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett and benched Bortles on Nov. 26 -- one day after an embarrassing loss in Buffalo in which Fournette left the bench and got into a fight, earning a one-game suspension. The change didn't seem to help; backup QB Cody Kessler threw only one touchdown in his first three starts and the Jaguars only scored two offensive touchdowns in their final five games. The team also had a discipline problem this season. In addition to Fournette's fight, teammates Dante Fowler Jr. and Yannick Ngakoue got into a post-practice training camp fight in front of reporters, and Jalen Ramsey was suspended for a week for threatening a reporter. (Fowler was suspended, too.) And several players were arrested after failing to pay a bar tab while the team was in London for its annual home game. The Jaguars also led the NFL in personal foul penalties for much of the season. It was, in short, a mess.
He said it: "We're not playing well as a team. I don't want to get into individual players or what side of the ball. Right now as a team, when you talk about takeaways, turnovers and field position, those are the three things we need to focus on, which are all three things our team can do a better job of. That's what we need to focus on first. Once we can get that corrected, then I think you can go to the next thing of the individual or things of that nature. We just have to get that corrected first. Maybe I'm just so close-minded on that aspect of it. Meaning if you don't do these things well the rest of it doesn't matter. That's how I truly feel and that is how I want to get this team right and back on track." -- Jaguars coach Doug Marrone
OFFSEASON QUESTIONS
Tom Coughlin, Dave Caldwell and Marrone are returning for a third season together. Now what? Following up the franchise's first division title since 1999 and first playoff appearance since 2007 with a disaster like this season certainly puts a lot of pressure on the three to turn things around in 2019. They did have a legitimate excuse for why the season went off the rails: The team was ravaged by injuries, especially at the offensive line and tight end positions. During the final three games of the season, nine of the 11 offensive starters were either backups (and in one case a fourth-teamer) or not with the team until mid-October. That’s over now, and no one cares any longer. Coughlin and Caldwell must re-stock tight end, receiver and running back in free agency and the draft and hit on whichever quarterback they choose. The defense will still be very good, but the offense has to be significantly better or the Jaguars won’t have a chance. The AFC South is one of the toughest divisions in the NFL, so that makes nailing their evaluations even more critical.
What do the Jaguars do at quarterback? They're almost certainly going to draft one with their first pick, but expect the team to also explore the free-agent market to bring in a veteran as a bridge player to give the rookie time to develop if he's not ready. It's not a great group of free-agent quarterbacks, though. Tyrod TaylorJosh McCownTeddy Bridgewater and Ryan Fitzpatrick top the list. There might be some high profile starters available if they're cut by their teams such as Joe FlaccoJameis WinstonEli Manning and Nick Foles. Economics might rule those players out because they'll be in demand, and the Jaguars really can't get into a bidding war. Oregon's Justin Herbert and Ohio State’s Dwayne Haskins were generally regarded as the best quarterbacks in the 2019 draft class, but Herbert announced he will return to school.
How do they fix their cap issues? Per ESPN's Roster Management system, the Jaguars are $12.2 million over the projected salary cap in 2019. Also looming is a potential $16.5 million dead cap hit if they cut Bortles before June 1. Still, the situation isn't as troublesome as it appears. The Jaguars can easily find $26.3 million in cap savings by cutting Bortles, defensive tackle Malik Jackson, right tackle Jermey Parnell and running back Carlos Hyde. That number gets even bigger if they decide to part ways with defensive end Calais Campbell, defensive tackle Marcell Dareus and safety Tashaun Gipson (a total of $27.6 million in cap savings), though the Jaguars aren't likely to release all three. Campbell and Dareus are still productive and have had very good seasons, and Gipson played pretty well in 2017. The bottom line is the team can make a significant amount of cap space and be able to sign Ngakoue or linebacker Myles Jack to an extension if they choose. This likely means the Jaguars won't be major players in free agency, though, which would take them out of the running for any of the expensive QB options.
TENNESSEE TITANS
The Titans overcame early struggles on offense and injuries to make a late push for the playoffs. Last year's team went to the second round, but Tennessee made strides on defense under first-year head coach Mike Vrabel and defensive coordinator Dean Pees. 
The Tennessee Titans ended the season with a 33-17 loss to the Indianapolis Colts and finished 9-7. Here's a recap of the season and what's next:
Season grade: Above average. The Titans overcame early struggles on offense and injuries to make a late push for the playoffs. Last year's team went to the second round, but Tennessee made strides on defense under first-year coach Mike Vrabel and defensive coordinator Dean Pees.
Season in review: The 2018 season was a roller-coaster ride for the Titans. Losing tight end Delanie Walker in the season opener and quarterback Marcus Mariota's elbow injury made it seem like it was going to be a long season. However, a three-game win streak -- against the Texans, Jaguars and Eagles -- had many analysts wondering if Tennessee could be a contender. The three-game losing streak that followed featured an assortment of offensive struggles. The Titans scored 31 points during the skid and couldn't run the ball effectively, which hurt the passing game. Offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur's group got back on track in the second half of the season, though. The biggest improvement came from running back Derrick Henry, who exploded for a combined 408 yards in Weeks 14 and 15, including a franchise-record 238 rushing yards against the Jaguars. Henry struggled earlier in the season, but he started to run the ball with more physicality, and the results showed, opening up the rest of the offense.
He said it: "Man, it's been crazy as hell. Just like last year, wild. We are in control of our destiny, but you don't want to be in control of your destiny like this." -- Cornerback Adoree Jackson
OFFSEASON QUESTIONS
Can the Titans find a wide receiver to start opposite Corey Davis? The likely release of Jackson by the Buccaneers is a situation the Titans should monitor closely. If Tampa lets Jackson go, he'd be an excellent addition. The NFL draft has options, as well, especially if Oklahoma's Marquise Brown is available. Kelvin Harmon from NC State and A.J. Brown from Ole Miss are other names to watch. Then there are the guys on Tennessee's roster. Before injuring his ankle, Tajae Sharpe emerged as a trustworthy slot receiver who can move the chains, and Taywan Taylor came on late and made some huge plays in wins against the Jets and Redskins.
Will the Titans re-sign Mariota to a long-term extension? Mariota is the present and future for the Titans. There aren't many better options in free agency or the draft. When healthy, Mariota is a dynamic, dual-threat quarterback. He changes the way opposing defenses have to plan, and he has a knack for rising to the occasion when it matters the most. His fourth-quarter comebacks have become a regular occurrence. The key is going to be how much the commitment costs. If it comes with a $100 million price tag, general manager Jon Robinson might want to pass. Given Mariota's extensive injury history, it's unlikely he'll be able to command a huge contract.
Who should the Titans bring aboard to generate pass rush? The Titans need to take a long look at the outside linebackers in this year's draft class. If Florida's Jachai Polite or Mississippi State's Montez Sweat are available in the first round, the Titans need to pounce. It might not be a popular opinion, but Tennessee should also re-sign veteran outside linebacker Derrick Morgan. He would be the veteran of a group that would include second-year players Harold Landry and Sharif Finch, as well as Kamalei Correa.

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