Saturday, February 9, 2019

NFC NORTH GRADES AND OFFSEASON QUESTIONS


CHICAGO BEARS
The Chicago Bears ended the season with a heartbreaking 16-15 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles to finish the year at 12-5. Here’s a recap of the season and what’s next.
Season grade: Near perfection. The Bears came out of nowhere to win the NFC North, their first division title since 2010. First-year head coach Matt Nagy changed the entire culture of the team. The Bears entered the playoffs winners of four straight and nine of 10. The team won a total of 14 games under John Fox from 2015-17. The Bears wildly exceeded expectations, and for that, Nagy and general manager Ryan Pace need to be commended. They just couldn't keep it going in the playoffs as Cody Parkey once again hit an upright to keep the Bears from advancing.
Season in review: Nagy’s first order of business was to fix the offense. The Bears had been dreadful offensively in the Fox era, but Nagy brought the Andy Reid system with him from Kansas City and the results in year one were encouraging. The Bears went out in the offseason and assembled a better supporting cast (Allen RobinsonTrey BurtonTaylor Gabriel and Anthony Miller) for quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, who had a mediocre rookie year in 2017. But under Nagy, Trubisky improved and finished the regular season with 3,223 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, 12 interceptions and a passer rating of 95.4. Chicago’s real strength, however, was its defense. The acquisition of linebacker Khalil Mack from the Oakland Raiders turned an already good Bears defense into a great defense. The Bears led the NFL in virtually every statistical category. They took firm control of the NFC North in the middle of November and never looked back. Chicago had five players voted to the Pro Bowl (Eddie JacksonAkiem HicksTarik CohenKyle Fuller and Mack) and became the first Bears team to go from worst to first since 2005.
He said it: “The coaching staff is doing a great job of creating a culture that caters to the players. It’s not like public school and it’s not like private school, it’s just in the middle where we have enough boundaries but we have room to be who we are in those boundaries. It’s working.” -- Bears cornerback Prince Amukamara
KEY OFFSEASON QUESTIONS
Future of defensive coordinator Vic Fangio: Fangio is expected to interview for head coach openings in Denver and Miami, and perhaps others, as early as Monday. Fangio is the architect of the Bears’ 3-4 defense, and losing him would be tough. The Bears could opt to replace Fangio with respected secondary coach Ed Donatell, but Chicago’s best-case scenario is for Fangio to return for a fifth season.
Backfield in motion: Running back Jordan Howard finished the regular season on a high note, but questions remain as to whether Howard is a long-term fit in Nagy’s offense. At some point, Howard is going to want a new contract. Are the Bears prepared to pay him? Chicago could look to trade Howard and recoup a draft pick. The Bears probably need to make a decision on Howard in the offseason. Howard is entering the final year of his original rookie deal.
Kicking quandary: The Bears guaranteed Parkey $9 million last offseason, but Parkey missed 10 total kicks (seven field goals, three extra points) during the regular season, and he missed the game-winner in the playoff loss to the Eagles. Chicago’s kicking game has to improve in 2019. Interestingly, the Bears’ all-time leading scorer, Robbie Gould, will be a free agent. There’s no guarantee Gould re-signs with San Francisco, even though he had two terrific years for the 49ers: Gould made 72 of 75 field goal attempts from 2017-18. Gould may want to return to the Midwest. The Bears should be all over that.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
The Minnesota Vikings ended the season a with a 24-10 loss to the Chicago Bears to finish 8-7-1. Here's a recap of the season and what's next:
Season grade: Average. The Super Bowl-or-bust expectation was set the moment quarterback Kirk Cousins signed his three-year, $84 million contract with the Vikings in free agency. A commitment of that magnitude put pressure on a team coming off a deep postseason run in 2017 with one of the most talented rosters in the NFC. The Vikings believed with their stout defense, an upgrade at quarterback would help propel them into uncharted territory. While Minnesota finished above .500, there was no marquee victory. The Vikings struggled against superior opponents and weren’t able to pull everything together until late in the season.
Season in review: The Vikings' splash in free agency, landing Cousins and defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson, is just one part of the 2018 story. The season started out with tragedy when offensive-line coach Tony Sparano died suddenly at age 56 two days before rookies and quarterbacks reported to training camp. Minnesota scrambled to fill the void left by the loss of Sparano, a deeply trusted confidant of Coach Mike Zimmer. The offensive line became the team’s weakest link. Down three starters to begin the season following Joe Berger's retirement, Mike Remmers moving from right tackle to right guard and Nick Easton's season-ending injury, the line battled ups and downs. Former offensive coordinator John DeFilippo orchestrated an effective passing attack with Cousins, but his unit ranked in the bottom half in scoring and efficiency. A difference in offensive philosophy between DeFilippo and Zimmer over the run game -- particularly involving the usage of Dalvin Cook once healthy -- reached a breaking point after losses at Chicago, New England and Seattle. DeFilippo was fired ahead of Week 15. Minnesota’s vaunted defense struggled early on, hitting rock bottom in a 38-31 loss to the Rams in Week 4 before finding its identity again. The modifications to the scheme put in place after the Vikings got bounced from last season's NFC title game had to be simplified. For as much talent as Minnesota has across the board, this team wasn’t able to string together many complete games when all three phases were playing at the same level.
He said it: "I do think that we can point to some times throughout the year where we’ve underachieved, not because we weren’t giving effort or preparation, but we just haven’t been able to sustain the level of potential in this locker room, play in and play out." -- Cousins
OFFSEASON QUESTIONS
What happens to the coaching staff and front office? The Wilf family might have some important decisions to make this offseason. Will blame be placed on the coaches or front office for the Vikings underachieving in 2018? Zimmer’s defense, despite a rough start, held up its end for the better portion of the season, but ownership needs to determine how much of the blame should fall on the head coach. Zimmer’s contract is up in 2019, so he would likely enter next season on the hot seat. General manager Rick Spielman might also come under fire due to the signing of Cousins not yielding quicker results and the state of the offensive line, which didn’t receive the upgrade it needed via free agency or the draft. Beyond Zimmer and Spielman, the Vikings need to decide about removing the interim tag from the title of offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski. Sources confirmed to ESPN that Stefanski did not sign the rollover in his contract after the 2017 season, meaning he’s not under contract in 2019. If Stefanski chooses to leave, the Vikings will be in the market for yet another offensive coordinator.
Will the Vikings upgrade their offensive line? The offensive line is going to receive a bulk of the blame, which means the pressure is on Spielman and the scouting department to address the weak link. Minnesota has not spent a first-round pick on an offensive lineman since 2012, when it selected Matt Kalil fourth overall. While Kalil didn’t pan out here, most offensive linemen drafted in the higher rounds have a better shot at becoming long-term starters. The Vikings would be wise to spend their draft capital on the offensive line after seeing how beneficial it was to take tackle Brian O'Neill 62nd overall in April. The easiest way to yield a strong return on investment in Cousins is by bringing in the right personnel to protect him. This offseason, it starts with addressing the interior and finding upgrades for Tom Compton and possibly Remmers.
What happens to Anthony Barr and other pending free agents? Barr was the odd man out after the Vikings signed Eric KendricksDanielle Hunter and Stefon Diggs to extensions in the offseason. The linebacker was an effective pass-rusher at times, and he might want to get paid like one and be a part of a defense that regularly plays to his strengths (i.e., as a 3-4 outside linebacker who rushes the passer). The Vikings don’t have a lot of salary-cap space in 2019, and placing the franchise tag on Barr would make it tough to make any significant moves. Remember, Minnesota also has to decide whether to work out a long-term deal with Richardson while accounting for possible contract restructures with Kyle RudolphEverson GriffenAndrew Sendejo and others.
DETROIT LIONS
The Detroit Lions ended the season with a resounding 31-0 win over the Green Bay Packers to finish 6-10. Here's a recap of the season and what's next:
Season grade: Below-average -- The season began with playoff aspirations in coach Matt Patricia’s first year. It ended with the team’s worst record since 2012. The offense, which was supposed to be the team's strength, sputtered and ended up ranked in the bottom third of the league in almost every major category. Jim Bob Cooter, the offensive coordinator who once looked like a future head-coaching candidate, could be out of a job, joining already fired special-teams coach Joe Marciano. Detroit, a year after firing Jim Caldwell following back-to-back 9-7 seasons, feels much closer to a rebuilding team than a contender.
Season in review: The biggest low came at the beginning, with a 48-17 blowout loss to the New York Jets on Monday Night Football that reset expectations. Detroit showed signs of progress at various points -- wins against New England, Green Bay, Miami and Carolina -- but too often it came in inconsistent increments. The trade for Damon Harrison gave the Lions hope. That’s a dangerous thing because the hope was often replaced by the real theme of Detroit’s season: inconsistency. The Lions, as safety Tavon Wilson pointed out, hadn’t won games in back-to-back weeks all year long (the Green Bay and Miami wins were separated by a bye). The offense, as mentioned above, faltered and then saw its pieces (Golden Tate) traded away and injured (Marvin Jones Jr., Kerryon Johnson), leaving the unit in tatters. And, now, it’ll lead to a long offseason in which changes are coming.
He said it: “Just to be completely honest, I don’t know if we won two games in a row this year. We didn’t. We haven’t. You can’t call yourself a consistent team if you haven’t done that.” -- Lions safety Tavon Wilson
OFFSEASON QUESTIONS
Who is the offensive coordinator? There’s a chance, of course, that Cooter keeps his job -- but assuming the Lions go in a different direction, who handles the offense will be the main question of the offseason. Will Patricia go with someone he is familiar with, such as Rams passing-game coordinator Shane Waldron or former Jaguars OC Nathaniel Hackett? Or will he look outside his web of familiarity? Kliff Kingsbury was an obvious possible choice -- and someone Patricia knows -- but he’s off the market after becoming USC's offensive coordinator. Another possibility, if Cooter is let go and Miami fires Adam Gase, would be Gase. He knows the state well, went to college at Michigan State and had a home nearby until recently.
What happens with Glover Quin (and others)? The Lions have a lot of veterans who could be salary-cap casualties over the next few months, led by right guard T.J. Lang and safety Glover Quin. Detroit could keep one or both, especially with an escalating salary cap, but there could be a lot of roster turnover with both expected and unexpected names over the next two months as GM Bob Quinn and Patricia continue to remake the roster. That will also include the likely non-signing of veteran free agents, including defensive end Ezekiel Ansah. At least half of the 2019 Lions roster could be newcomers.
What does owner Martha Ford think? Lions owner Martha Ford and her family have not said anything about the franchise in at least two seasons. Since she spoke last, the Lions fired Caldwell, a coach she loved, and replaced him with Patricia. It went from a winning franchise to a losing one. The offseason is the time when owners usually speak. Will Ford break her silence?
GREEN BAY PACKERS
The Green Bay Packers ended the season a with a 31-0 loss to the Detroit Lions to finish 6-9-1. Here's a recap of the season and what's next:
Season grade: Below-average. If there was a lower category, the Packers would be in it. Anything less than a playoff berth when Aaron Rodgers starts 16 games is disastrous. Part of that is on Rodgers for not playing at his usual MVP level, which would have covered up for myriad other issues. Part of it is on a roster that wasn’t nearly as talented or deep as it should have been thanks to some subpar drafts in Ted Thompson’s final years as general manager. Part of it is on coaching, which is why the Packers have a coaching search on their hands.
Season in review: When Rodgers marched back onto the field in the season opener against the Chicago Bears with his injured left knee wrapped up and led the Packers back from down 20-0 to a 24-23 win, it looked like it would be just the start of a season filled with thrilling victories. Instead, that was the zenith. It was a slow, agonizing fall from there. Road loss after road loss – seven of them to start the season before the Packers finally avoided a winless road record by beating the hapless Jets in Week 16 -- was like slow torture. The low point came on Dec. 2 at home against the Arizona Cardinals, a listless performance that convinced team president Mark Murphy to dump Mike McCarthy with four games left in his 13th season as head coach.
He said it: "I really felt that change was needed and kind of Mike's tenure had run its course. I think we needed a new voice, and it happens in our league.” -- Packers team president Mark Murphy the day after he fired McCarthy.
KEY OFFSEASON QUESTIONS:
When will the new coach be in place? When the Packers hired McCarthy in 2006, it took less than a week after Mike Sherman was fired. There’s reason to think it will take much longer this time. Indications are that Murphy and GM Brian Gutekunst want to talk to as many candidates as possible. Neither has ever been through a coaching search in his current role, and they believe they will benefit from conducting a wide array of interviews. And then there’s the possibility that they’ll hire someone who’s coaching in the Super Bowl, which means they can’t sign him until early February.
Who will the new coach keep? If interim coach Joe Philbin doesn’t get the job on a full-time basis, how much of the existing staff will the new coach retain? Rodgers has spoken highly of Philbin, but if it’s an offensive-minded head coach, then what are Philbin’s chances of staying on? The new coach needs to connect with Rodgers and get him to buy into whatever system he plans to run. Philbin certainly could assist with that. And then there’s defensive coordinator Mike Pettine, whose unit has played perhaps better than its talent in his first year on the job. There certainly will be plenty of change on the staff no matter who’s hired, but the Packers have two highly regarded coordinators in place now in Philbin and Pettine.
How active will Gutekunst be in free agency? The Packers need at least one more game-changing weapon on offense (free-agent tight end Jimmy Graham wasn’t it), help on the offensive line and pass-rushers galore. That’s too much to fill in the draft. Gutekunst showed a more aggressive approach to free agency last offseason, and even though a few of the moves failed, he’ll need to jump back in this March in order to make the Packers a contender again. He said recently that last year’s free-agent results won’t deter him this year, and he’ll have plenty of salary-cap space to be an active participant.

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