SUPER BOWL LIII GAME PLANS

WILL PATRIOTS' OR RAMS' DEFENSE GET STOPS?

After studying tape on the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams all season, we should expect both teams to lean on their foundational concepts and schemes in Super Bowl LIII.

From the Patriots' run-heavy approach out of two-back personnel to the Rams' early-down play-action that creates rhythm throws for Jared Goff, the film tells the story.

Let's get into it and break down three keys for each team that you'll see Sunday, along with four X factors who could make a huge impact in Atlanta.

THREE KEYS FOR THE PATRIOTS

1. STICK TO THE OLD-SCHOOL RUN GAME TO CONTROL TEMPO

WHY IT'S IMPORTANT: I don't see the script changing much for a Patriots offense that has an average time of possession of 41:09 in the postseason. In playoff wins over the Los Angeles Chargers and the Kansas City Chiefs, New England has averaged 165 yards rushing a game on 41 attempts. Those are monster numbers.

We ranked the very best of the two best teams in the NFL, starting with the Rams' Aaron Donald and going down to the fringe starters.

The schemes we should look for against a nasty Rams defensive line? Think old-school here, with the Pats looking to 21 personnel (2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR).

HOW IT WORKS: Bring fullback James Develin on the field to work with an offensive line that is playing its best ball of the season. Kick out and pull on power schemes. Or go straight downhill with iso runs to get Develin on linebackers Mark Barronand Cory Littleton. Clear a path for running backs Sony Michel, James White and Rex Burkhead.

In addition to two-back runs, we can also anticipate the Patriots using one-back schemes out of 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR). That will allow New England to run one-back power, roll out the wham scheme to trap defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, plus outside zone.

This also sets up some power play-action for quarterback Tom Brady, which I detailed on the NFL Matchup show leading up to the AFC title game (check out the video below). Pull the guard to grab the eyes of the linebackers and put Brady in a position to target inside crossing routes.

Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has done an excellent job adapting his game plan to the roster this season, putting the emphasis on the run game. That shows up on tape and in the numbers, with the rookie Michel carrying the rock 53 times for 242 yards in the postseason. And it sets up the best matchup of the Super Bowl with the Patriots' run game against the Rams' defensive front.

2. ENGINEER PRESSURE VS. JARED GOFF

WHY IT'S IMPORTANT: Bill Belichick doesn't have an elite pass-rusher on his defense. The Patriots, however, have registered a ridiculous pressure rate of 44.7 percent in the playoffs, in addition to a blitz rate of 27 percent. Watch out, Goff.

HOW IT WORKS: It starts with the New England's ability to manipulate protection schemes. Whether the defense dials up zero-pressure (no safety help) or occupies blockers to create free runners to the quarterback, Belichick will send five or six at the Rams quarterback. Check out an example below -- courtesy of NFL Next Gen Stats -- of New England using twist stunts to get pressure against on Patrick Mahomes in the AFC Championship Game.

Given the pressure schemes that pair with a man-to-man coverage in the secondary, the Patriots can stress the Rams' protection count while playing aggressive technique in the back end. And it's a must for the Patriots to eliminate Goff's ability to throw on rhythm. Heat up that pocket to get both Van Noy and Dont'a Hightower in the mix.

3. INFLUENCE THE RAMS' SECOND-LEVEL DEFENDERS WITH PLAY-ACTION

WHY IT'S IMPORTANT: Brady has completed 69 percent of his 171 play-action pass attempts this season, including the playoffs. The key? The Patriots can go to play-action against the Rams' core zone coverages -- Quarters and Cover 3 -- or target man-to-man schemes.

HOW IT WORKS: Check out the example against zone coverage from the Patriots' divisional-round win over the Chargers, from NFL Next Gen Stats: This is off the wham scheme with tight end Rob Gronkowski trapping inside. Pair that with the low-hat reads from the Pats' offensive line, and it forces the second-level defenders to freeze at the point of attack. This creates the open window for Brady to target wide receiver Julian Edelman. And there is open turf to run after the catch.

Just pick Patriots film from this season and let it roll. The play-pass concepts will show up. And the Patriots will also create those play-action opportunities out of 21 personnel on Sunday. That's going to force the Rams to play with their base defense, and New England can use the power run action to set the bait at the second level with Edelman and Gronk working the middle of the field.

THREE KEYS FOR THE RAMS

1. FEED TODD GURLEY OFF MISDIRECTION

WHY IT'S IMPORTANT: Backup running back C.J. Anderson, who was signed by Los Angeles in mid-December, can still play. And he will get his looks on Sunday after racking up 466 yards on 82 carries in his past four games.

After Gurley got just five touches in the NFC Championship Game, however, I expect Sean McVay to give the Rams' feature back a bump in volume off the classic backfield misdirection that has become a staple of this offense. Bring 11 personnel into the game, show the jet sweep or wide receiver reverse, and lean on that offensive front to run outside zone.

HOW IT WORKS: The starting point for how the Rams excel on offense starts with misdirection in the backfield. McVay uses it in the run game, off play-action, and in the screen game. Plus, with multiple moving parts on any given play, the Rams can set the cheese for the Patriots linebackers and box safeties. Take a false step or hesitate? You're going to get beat. That creates angles and favorable blocking matchups for the Rams to cut off pursuit.

Check out an example of this on Gurley's 35-yard touchdown run in the divisional-round win over the Dallas Cowboys, courtesy of NFL Next Gen Stats. It's a zone scheme with split-flow and wide receiver reverse action. Gurley makes the cut to daylight and takes it for six:

Gurley, who produced 17 explosive runs (plays of 15 or more yards) during the regular season, is an important weapon. That big-play ability out of the backfield and in the passing game is rare.

Gurley now sits at 19 rushing touchdowns on the season, including the playoffs. And it all starts with the misdirection that can impact the Patriots linebackers to create those creases for him to press the ball vertically up the field.

2. WIN FIRST-DOWN SNAPS ON DEFENSE

WHY IT'S IMPORTANT: In the Rams' two playoff wins, Wade Phillips' defense has allowed just 98 rushing yards and 2.28 yards per carry. But it gets even better on first down, where that dominant Rams front is allowing only 1.88 yards per carry. That's going to be vital to slowing down the Patriots' game plan.

HOW IT WORKS: What does the tape show us? Start with Ndamukong Suh. The veteran defensive tackle is playing his best football of the season, winning against double-teams and getting penetration up the field. And we know what kind of impact Aaron Donald makes with his speed off the ball, ability to shoot a backside gap to create havoc, and pursuit to track ball carriers.

But don't forget about Dante Fowlerand Samson Ebukam setting the edge, or Michael Brockers on the interior of the front. These cats are controlling the line of scrimmage, and Mark Barronand Cory Littleton can run to the ball.

During the playoff run, the Rams have locked down Ezekiel Elliott, Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. Box those guys in on zone runs and limit power schemes. And it has to continue to get the Patriots off script. Win those first-down reps and force McDaniels to adapt.

SCRIPT MAN-COVERAGE BEATERS VS. THE PATRIOTS' SECONDARY

WHY IT'S IMPORTANT: McVay knows he is going to see man-to-man coverage on Sunday. Aggressive stuff, even a little grabby at times. But that's also why we should look for the Rams to call up man-coverage beaters out of their condensed formations -- when wide receivers are aligned inside of numbers.

This means the Rams can test the Patriots' pre-snap communication versus bunch and stack sets in order to work through the wash and pass off routes. And it also creates natural rub and pick situations for Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods and Josh Reynolds to get off the ball cleanly.

HOW IT WORKS: Here's a look at how the Rams attacked single high-coverage (both Cover 1 and Cover 3) from the NFL Matchup show:

With the Patriots likely leaning on man-to-man schemes over zone coverage -- and using a safety to double/bracket either Cooks or Woods -- Goff will have to make some tight window throws. That could lead to more flood concepts off boot to beat the defender's leverage and the staple post-crosser concept that is at the top of McVay's call sheet every week.

As we already discussed, however, the Rams' condensed formations will generate some stress for the Pats' defense. And if the secondary fails to adjust to the reduced splits of the wide receivers or gets caught up in the traffic, Goff will have targets breaking inside of the numbers.

SUPER BOWL LIII X FACTORS

These are four underrated players who could have a major impact Sunday:

JAMES WHITE, RB, PATRIOTS

White caught 87 passes in the regular season and added 19 more in the playoffs. Along with his impact in the running game, White's versatility in the Patriots' screen packages is critical. And New England will also script matchups to get White loose as a receiver on underneath concepts against the Rams' linebackers.

DANTE FOWLER, OLB, RAMS

Just watch Fowler set the edge in the run game. He has some serious power in his pads. Plus, he has been showing up as an edge rusher. The former first round pick has 1.5 sacks this postseason, and his nasty spin move to get home to Drew Brees caused the interception in overtime of the NFC title game.

STEPHON GILMORE, CB, PATRIOTS

I love Gilmore's game. He is physical with the press-man skills to challenge routes at all three levels of the field. Given Belichick's tendency of doubling top receivers, we should see Gilmore playing some solo coverage against Cooks or Woods. And he has to win those matchups.

JOSH REYNOLDS, WR, RAMS

Reynolds caught four of seven targets for 74 yards in the NFC Championship Game win over the Saints. Look for him to pop up on flood concepts and leveled routes inside of the numbers off play-action. Let's see who Reynolds matches up with in the Patriots secondary.