PITTSBURGH PIRATES

COULD COLIN MORAN HAVE A BREAKOUT SEASON?

In the offseason leading up to the 2018 regular season, the Pittsburgh Pirates acquired third baseman Colin Moran from the Houston Astros in a trade that sent pitcher Gerrit Cole to the at the time defending World Series Champions.

Colin Moran was immediately thrust into a starting role for the Pittsburgh Pirates at third base, even after dealing with a facial fracture that sidelined him for the majority of the 2017 season. While there were and still are questions and concerns about Moran, it is important to remember that this was his first season in the MLB and that there is plenty of reason to be optimistic about the 26-year-old slugger acquired for Gerrit Cole.

On defense, Moran possesses a decent glove and a strong throwing arm, ranking third in the National League with a .962 fielding percentage. None of his errors came on throws across the diamond, which is outstanding as he was the only qualified third baseman in the Majors to not commit a throwing error.

While range certainly was an issue for Moran, posting a -6.6 UZR and -8 DRS, he shows that he is capable of making the tough throw across the diamond. With some work this offseason, Moran could potentially put himself in the upper tier of defensive third basemen, although a move to first base could potentially work out better for him in the future if he is unable to improve on his range ability.

Moran managed to put up respectable numbers on offense for a rookie despite missing the power that he dominated within 2017. He finished 2018 with .322 wOBA and a 103 wRC+, both of which are above average, and showed flashes of his raw power with not one, but two grand slams in the first half of the year.

The Pittsburgh Pirates third baseman also showed a strong ability to make contact with the ball, batting .277 over the course of the season, which ranked within the top-5 among rookies with at least 400 plate appearances, while posting an 88.6 Z-Swing%, 81.2 Contact%, both above league average. Moran made soft contact only 15% of the time, which places him in the top 10 in the Majors at third base.

According to data from Stats, Moran had an expected line of .285/.347/.436, which equates to a .786 OPS & .339. These are strong numbers for any rookie and, other than his slugging percentage, aren’t too far off of his actual line of .277/.340/.407. His SLG indicates that Moran didn’t get a lot of luck, but I also would like to point out that his Fly Ball% dropped 11 points from his last season in the Minors when he collected 18 Home Runs in 2017.

While one shouldn’t jump to the conclusion that if Moran hit more fly balls he would have more home runs, it is certainly easy to see that his inability to put the ball in the air had a strong effect on his power numbers. During Moran’s two worst power months this season were July and August when he had a fly ball rate of 15% and 13.7% respectively, while producing just 1 Home Run.

In August, despite an outrageous 4.14 GB/FB ratio, Moran managed to bat .317, but his lack of power was certainly a concern, especially for Moran himself, leading him to make a big change towards the latter half of the year, due in part to Gregory Polanco:

After backing off of the plate in August, he finished the final month of the season strong with a .912 OPS and .241 ISO while collecting 4 Doubles and 3 Home Runs in 54 at bats.

According to Depth Charts projections from Fangraphs, Moran is projected to bat .265/.328/.407, which translates to a .735 OPS. Using his previously mentioned expected stat line, his actual 2018 line, and also his Depth Charts projection, I produced a more generous (and, in my opinion, more accurate) line of .278/.340/.420 for a .760 OPS.

With more competition at third base through the additions of Jung Ho Kang and eventually Lonnie Chisenhall, as well as internal options through Kevin Kramer, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and others, if Moran is even to produce at that level with improved defense, he could certainly put himself into the 2 WAR range, which would put the Pittsburgh Pirates in a strong position at third base in the 2019 season. If the final month of 2018 becomes the norm for the 6 foot 4 third baseman, then 2019 could be a an even more interesting season for the Pirates.