Saturday, February 9, 2019

NFC WEST GRADES AND OFFSEASON QUESTIONS


The Seahawks far exceeded outside expectations after an offseason roster-retooling and a few serious injuries. They lost in the wild-card round of the playoffs to the Cowboys but showed, with Russell Wilson at quarterback, they are still contenders. Read more.
The Seattle Seahawks ended the season with a 24-22 loss to the Dallas Cowboysto finish the season at 10-7. Here's a recap of the season and what's next:
Season grade: Above average. The Seahawks far exceeded outside expectations after an offseason roster retooling and a few serious injuries claimed some of the most impactful players in franchise history. They were hardly devoid of talent as some of the more pessimistic projections seemed to assume, but getting 10 wins and a playoff appearance qualifies as a significant accomplishment after losing or moving on from the likes of Richard ShermanMichael BennettKam Chancellor, Cliff Avril, Jimmy GrahamEarl Thomas and others. If the only positive development to come out of this season was the emergence of the next group of core players, 2018 would have felt like a success even in the absence of a playoff berth. The Seahawks got both.
Season in review: The Seahawks' turnaround from an 0-2 start coincided with the emergence of their running game, which finished atop the league after bottom-third rankings the past two years. Reigniting that part of their offense was a primary offseason goal, evident in personnel moves and in some of the hires coach Pete Carroll made after overhauling his staff. More running meant much less was asked of Russell Wilson, who attempted his fewest passes since 2013 but still tossed a career-high 35 touchdowns while tying his career low with seven interceptions and edging his previous best with a 110.9 rating. All their key departures meant the Seahawks needed a next wave of stars to emerge, and they did. Chris Carson became their first tailback since Marshawn Lynch in 2014 to top 1,000 yards, Tyler Lockett scored 10 touchdowns, Frank Clark and Jarran Reed combined for 24.5 sacks, and Michael Dickson made the Pro Bowl. Seattle also got Pro Bowl-caliber seasons from veterans Bobby Wagner and Duane Brown, all of which shows why general manager John Schneider referred to the Seahawks' offseason shakeup as a reset and never a rebuild.
He said it: "There's an emotion to it that's deep, and it's because there wasn't very many people that thought we could do this. Most everybody thought we didn't have a chance." -- Carroll, after the Seahawks clinched a playoff berth with their win over the Chiefs in Week 16.
KEY OFFSEASON QUESTIONS
Will Clark get the franchise tag or a long-term deal? It's going to be one or the other because there's no way the Seahawks are letting their best pass-rusher leave in free agency. Clark did not want to do what Minnesota's Danielle Hunter did last summer, which was to take a deal in the $14-15 million range then have the type of season that would have gotten him a much bigger payday had he waited. Clark bet on himself and finished the regular season with 14 sacks, which was the sixth most in the league and a half-sack behind Hunter. Given the year he just had and the fact that Clark has already shown he's willing to wait for the right deal, it's hard to imagine him taking one that averages much less than the franchise number for defensive ends, which should be upward of $18 million. Will the Seahawks be willing to make that kind of long-term commitment?
What will happen with Wilson's contract? He had perhaps his best season, and the extension Carroll recently signed shows that business is running as usual following the passing of owner Paul Allen. But remember, Wilson's last deal didn't get done until the eve of training camp in 2015, which was the deadline his side had set. He was prepared to play out the final year of his rookie contract, then play the franchise-tag game. Might he be even more willing to go year-to-year with his contract after seeing how that worked for Kirk CousinsAs ESPN's Mike Sando noted, Wilson had made only $2.2 million in career earnings when he was negotiating his current extension, so there may not be the same financial incentive to do a deal now that he's banked more than $72 million in NFL money since then. His 2019 salary is $17 million. This could get interesting.
What other changes are coming on defense? Seattle re-signing safety Earl Thomas seems exceedingly unlikely given what's happened over the past seven months: Thomas holding out all offseason, refusing to take part in a few practices upon his return and then flipping the team off after breaking his leg for the second time in three years. Like Thomas, linebacker K.J. Wright will be an unrestricted free agent. He'll be 30 this summer and missed all but five regular-season games because of a knee injury that required surgery and then an out-of-town treatment. That will work against another multiyear deal from Seattle, though Wright signing a one-year deal with the Seahawks to reset his market value seems conceivable. Earlier comments from Carroll suggested the Seahawks want to bring back Mychal Kendricks, who helped fill in for Wright before landing on IR. That assumes Kendricks will be available; he's facing potential prison time for insider trading and is scheduled to be sentenced later this month. Seattle's other UFAs include guards D.J. Fluker and J.R. Sweezy, nickelback Justin Coleman, defensive end Dion Jordan, defensive tackle Shamar Stephen and kicker Sebastian Janikowski.
The Niners hopes for playoff contention this year centered on quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Garoppolo didn’t really get the opportunity, suffering a torn ACL in Week 3 against the Kansas City Chiefs. Losing Garoppolo was the one hit the Niners couldn’t afford, not with the rest of their roster rebuild still under construction. 
The San Francisco 49ers finished the first half of the season with a 2-7 record. Here's a look at how they've fared and what's ahead:
First-half rewind: The hope for a quick turnaround and shot at playoff contention evaporated the moment quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo tore his ACL in Week 3. It didn't help that they lost starting running back Jerick McKinnonto the same injury before the season even began. What's left behind is a roster full of holes and lacking in big-time playmakers capable of finishing out close games with wins. The results have been maddening for players, coaches and fans alike as the Niners have lost twice to the lowly Arizona Cardinals and are 1-4 in games decided by one possession. Grade: Bring on 2019.
49ers' revised game-by game prediction
Here's how San Francisco 49ers reporter Nick Wagoner sees the rest of season playing out.
DATE
OPP.
W-L
Nov. 12
vs. Giants
W
Nov. 25
at Buccaneers
L
Dec. 2
at Seahawks
L
Dec. 9
vs. Broncos
W
Dec. 16
vs. Seahawks
L
Dec. 23
vs. Bears
L
Dec. 30 at Rams L
What is the 49ers' biggest hole to fill? Game-changing players. Forget positional needs, this runs deeper. The 49ers' inability to win close games comes down to a lack of players who can turn a game in their favor. They've seen established stars like Larry FitzgeraldAaron Rodgersand emerging stars like Derwin James do it to them in losses this season. Niners coach Kyle Shanahan recently referred to the need for "closers." Ideally, the Niners can find those closers at particular positions of need like edge rusher, cornerback and wide receiver.
MVP: Tight end George Kittle. In a season with few bright spots, Kittle (41 receptions, 692 yards, three TDs) is emerging as one of the league's best tight ends. The rest of this season will be an important test for Kittle to prove he can stay healthy (an issue that plagued him as a rookie) and to continue to produce even without Garoppolo. If Kittle puts up big numbers with backup quarterbacks C.J. Beathard and Nick Mullens, it should create plenty of excitement over what he can do when Garoppolo returns.
Biggest surprise: The effectiveness of the running game. The Niners have many issues but, frankly, none of them could be classified as a surprise. A rushing attack that underwent an offseason makeover has been, especially considering McKinnon didn't play a down before his season ended. When healthy, running back Matt Breida has been dynamic, Raheem Mostert showed some big-play ability but broke his arm against the Raiders, and Alfred Morrishas been steady. All of that has added up to a running game that ranks second in yards and seventh in yards per carry.
Hurdle to overcome: Takeaway margin. The 49ers have been one of the league's worst teams when it comes to turning the ball over. Compounding matters is the fact that they've been equally bad taking it away from opponents. The Niners have enough of a talent deficit against many teams to overcome without the type of self-inflicted mistakes that have been a hallmark of the early part of the season. It has been better the past two weeks but if it doesn't improve on a consistent basis, the losses will continue to pile up.
LOS ANGELES RAMS
The Los Angeles Rams ended the season with a 13-3 loss to the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LIII. Here's a recap of 2018 and what's next:
Season grade: Near perfection. It was Super Bowl or bust from the outset after the Rams made several aggressive trades and acquisitions to bolster their roster. Their goal came to fruition after a divisional-round win over the Dallas Cowboys followed by an overtime victory over the New Orleans Saints in the NFC Championship Game to advance to Super Bowl LIII. Although they fell short of securing the organization's second Super Bowl title, the season must be considered a resounding success. The Rams finished the regular season 13-3, won a second consecutive division title for the first time since 1979 after they swept their NFC West opponents, and made their first Super Bowl appearance since the 2001 season. The organization, including general manager Les Snead and coach Sean McVay, must be commended for the team's meteoric rise after spending more than a decade mired in mediocrity.
Season in review: Snead made offseason headlines when he traded for All-Pro cornerbacks Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib and receiver Brandin Cooks, then signed All-Pro defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh in free agency. The expectation turned from a playoff run to a Super Bowl with a roster that also included Todd Gurley and Aaron Donald -- who signed extensions to become the highest-paid running back and defensive player in NFL history, respectively. The Rams won eight straight behind superb play from Gurley and quarterback Jared Goff, who both ascended into the Most Valuable Player conversation, and appeared poised to make a run at a perfect season. However, Drew Brees and the Saints dealt the Rams their first loss in Week 9. They rebounded against the Seattle Seahawks, then put on a show in a historic 54-51 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football. But following a bye week, Goff hit a three-game slump as the Rams lost back-to-back regular-season games for the first time under McVay. The mid-December addition of veteran running back C.J. Anderson provided an unexpected spark, as the sixth-year pro provided outstanding performances in the final two games of the season with Gurley sidelined because of inflammation in his left knee. When Gurley returned in the divisional round against the Cowboys, he and Anderson provided a one-two punch for an offense that relied heavily on the run. And as the Saints shut down the run, Goff led the Rams to a come-from-behind victory, as they dug out of a 13-point hole to defeat the Saints in overtime at the Superdome. Donald finished the regular season as the NFL's sack leader, with 20.5 sacks, and Gurley scored a league-best 21 touchdowns. Donald also won his second straight Defensive Player of the Year award.
He said it: "We have a confident team, but you like that, you like that confident swagger. But you also want to make sure that there's a humility that exists where you understand you got to earn it every single day with how competitive this league is with great players and coaches." -- coach Sean McVay, before the season on how to handle expectations and player personalities
Offseason questions
What are key contracts to monitor on defense? On paper, the Rams put together an all-star defense. However, the results through the regular season were underwhelming. The defense ranked 20th at 24 points per game, and ranked 19th in average yards allowed at 358.6. Decisions must be made on contracts for Suh, outside linebacker Dante Fowler Jr. and safety Lamarcus Joyner. Suh signed a one-year, $14 million deal and was considered a season-long rental. He produced in the playoffs, but his production through the regular season was not outstanding -- 4.5 sacks -- which could make a decision to replace him for a younger player at a less expensive rate an easy one. Fowler was acquired in a midseason trade with the Jacksonville Jaguars. He produced added pressure from the edge, including two sacks, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery, but is on an expiring rookie contract after the Jaguars declined to pick up a fifth-year option. Joyner played the season on the franchise tag after the two sides were unable to come to terms on a long-term extension. He had a sack, an interception and three deflected passes but could fall outside the team's budget.
Who will become Goff's new quarterbacks coach? With the expectation that Zac Taylor will be named the head coach of the Cincinnati Bengals, Goff will be on to his fourth quarterbacks coach in four seasons. Chris Weinke coached Goff in 2016 before he was fired; Greg Olson handled the post in 2017 before he left for the Oakland Raiders; and then it was Taylor, whom McVay promoted to quarterbacks coach after he served a season as an assistant receivers coach. Through three seasons, all the turnover has seemed to have minimal impact on Goff's development. This season, he passed for 4,688 yards and 32 touchdowns, with 12 interceptions, and posted a perfect passer rating of 158.3 against the Minnesota Vikings. McVay champions developing coaches and promoting from within, so it would not be surprising if Goff (who is now eligible to begin contract negotiations) is soon working with a familiar assistant already on the staff.
How will the offensive line shake out? The Rams featured one of the most consistent offensive lines in the NFL, starting the same five players all 16 games. However, left guard Rodger Saffold's contract is set to expire, and the age-related concerns over left tackle Andrew Whitworth, 37, and center John Sullivan, 33, remain. The Rams would like to work out a deal with Saffold, 30, but it's likely the veteran will be able to command a price in free agency that is outside the Rams' range, and they could settle on promoting Joseph Noteboomor Brian Allen to a starting spot. However, that still would require the organization to line up at least a couple of reliable backups, in case Whitworth and Sullivan are unable to go all 16 games.

No comments: