WELCOME TO THE WOFFORD TERRIERS
Can a Southern Conference team win an at-large bid? We will
soon find out.
Projected as a No. 10 seed by Joe Lunardi, Wofford
is putting together one compelling case for the NCAA men's basketball
committee. Welcome to Bubble Watch, Terriers.
Mike Young's team has won 11 straight games thanks to
excellent shooting and a low turnover rate that, granted, went temporarily missing
in the Terriers' 78-76 overtime win at East Tennessee State.
Nevertheless, Fletcher
Magee scored 32 points and sealed the win in the final seconds
with a heady and very well-executed intentional miss on a free throw.
You know Magee as the perimeter scoring machine who, in
2017-18, chased Stephen Curry's
Division I record for made 3-pointers in a season. The Wofford guard came up
just short in that pursuit, but this season he's again averaging around four
made 3-pointers per game.
With Magee, Nathan Hoover and Storm Murphy hitting
3s and Cameron
Jackson ruling the paint, the Terriers have lit up opposing
SoCon defenses to the tune of 1.23 points per possession. Make due allowance
for opponent strength, but that's about what we're seeing Tennessee do to the
SEC.
Anyway, opponent strength in the SoCon is excellent. The
reason Wofford's at-large chances are of more than purely speculative interest
is that it's far from a foregone conclusion that the Terriers will win the
automatic bid. UNC Greensboro, ETSU and Furman could all have something to say
about that.
With the addition of the Terriers to the Watch, here's how
we're projecting the bubble right now:
Bids from traditional "one-bid" leagues: 23
teams
Locks: 11 teams
The bubble: 40 teams for 34 available spots
Should be in: 20 teams
Work to do: 20 teams
Locks: 11 teams
The bubble: 40 teams for 34 available spots
Should be in: 20 teams
Work to do: 20 teams
Locks: Virginia, Duke, North Carolina
Should be in: Louisville, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Syracuse
Work to do: NC State
Should be in: Louisville, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Syracuse
Work to do: NC State
SHOULD BE IN
A fleeting appearance under "should be in" is just
a pro forma last box to be checked for the Cardinals on their way to full lock
status. Absent a total Oklahoma-in-2018 collapse (and even the Sooners got
in!), nothing will keep Jordan Nwora and
his mates from an elite seed.
See "Louisville," above, last box to be checked,
etc. Buzz Williams apparently has the greatest defense in the history of college basketball. We
kid, we kid, but, seriously, the Hokies' neutral-floor win over Purdue looks
better with each passing day, offsetting at least part of that whole "lost
at Penn State" thing.
FSU now owns wins over Purdue (at home), LSU (on a neutral
floor) and Syracuse (at the Carrier Dome). The last game in that group was the
most impressive one, as Terance Mann led
the Seminoles to an 18-point win on the road. Florida State's defense has shut
down the last two opponents it has faced (Georgia Tech and the Orange), and, if
this becomes a trend, Leonard Hamilton's men could earn themselves a higher
seed.
The official motto of Syracuse in 2019 is "We won at
Duke." That's an excellent motto (yes, yes, the Blue Devils were
short-handed, duly noted), one that will balance some demerits -- such as four
Orange losses in Quads 2 and 3 and, yes, a somewhat listless performance at home
in an 18-point loss to Florida State. Not to mention few Bubble Watch teams are
blessed with as many upcoming opportunities: Louisville, Duke and Virginia are
all coming to the Carrier Dome in the next few weeks.
WORK TO DO
NC State is trending in a dangerous direction. Even before
the Wolfpack hosted Virginia Tech, they had already lost four of their previous
seven games. Now, after two wild losses marked by scoring extremes (the 47-24
defeat at home at the hands of the Hokies, and a 113-96 drubbing at North
Carolina), the Pack is 4-6 in ACC play. The home win against Auburn in December
looks pretty good on their profile, but NC State needs wins in February. For
that to happen, this defense will have to find a second wind.
Lock: Kansas
Should be in: Texas Tech, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma
Work to do: Baylor, Texas, TCU
Should be in: Texas Tech, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma
Work to do: Baylor, Texas, TCU
SHOULD BE IN
One more top-20-NET team moving toward lock territory, so
let's observe something notable in the meantime. The NCAA's move this season to
reformat team sheets and further refine game results within each
of the four quadrants is particularly revealing with respect to the Red
Raiders. Against the top of Quad 1, for example, Texas Tech is 0-5. Conversely,
when playing the remainder of Quad 1, Jarrett
Culver & Co. are undefeated, with victories over Nebraska
(neutral floor), at home against Kansas State and at Texas.
Like Texas Tech, ISU is a prime candidate to be marked as a
lock in the very near future. Unlike the Red Raiders, however, the Cyclones
came away with the win when these two teams met in Lubbock in January. That,
along with beating Kansas in Ames and this week's victory at Oklahoma,
constitute the leading bullet points on the résumé for Marial Shayok, Tyrese
Haliburton and their fellow Clones.
With a road win over Iowa State and victories at home
against both Texas Tech and Kansas to their credit, the Wildcats are looking
like a real threat to end KU's streak of 14 consecutive Big 12 titles. On the
other hand, even if that doesn't pan out, this still appears to be a team on
its way to a seed just outside the top four lines. In any event, K-State will
want to keep the momentum going. Back-to-back road games at Baylor and Texas
are up next.
Lon Kruger's team swept its season series with Oklahoma
State and also beat TCU in Norman. Past that, however, OU has posted seven Big
12 losses. The mock brackets are unconcerned so far, and certainly the Big 12
will send plenty of "good win" opportunities the Sooners' way, up to
and including a home game against Kansas in the final week of the season. That
being said, Oklahoma will have to win some of these games at some point.
WORK TO DO
The Bears are coming off their worst margin of defeat of the
conference season, a 12-point loss at Texas. Even so, Scott Drew's team is
still lurking right behind Kansas State in the conference race. If BU stays
this close to the top of the league, its seed could rise significantly from its
present 9-10 range. In short, Baylor has come a long way since suffering Quad 4
losses to Texas Southern and Stephen F. Austin.
If there's a 5-5 team in major-conference play that's being
overlooked, it might be Texas. The perimeter-oriented Longhorns are
riding Roach and the rim defense of Jaxson Hayes.
That's a good combination on paper -- one that will presumably translate into more
wins and a more solid bracket status than Texas' current "in, but don't
mess it up" perch.
The Horned Frogs needed a buzzer-beater from JD Miller to
beat Oklahoma State in Fort Worth. That stopped a bad loss in its tracks, but
TCU is still under .500 (4-5) in Big 12 play. True, this is a team that's
showing up as a solid middle seed in the brackets, with wins over Baylor, Texas
and Florida to its credit. On the other hand, Jamie Dixon's group is allowing
conference opponents to hit 54 percent of their 2s. Either the Frogs will start
playing better, or the "solid middle seed" bit will be a
memory.
Should be in: Marquette, Villanova
Work to do: St. John's, Seton Hall, Creighton, Butler
Work to do: St. John's, Seton Hall, Creighton, Butler
SHOULD BE IN
The one-point loss to St. John's at home was a heartbreaker,
but the men from Milwaukee still appear headed for the program's best seed in
years. In particular, Marquette's wins in 2018-19 have shown an uncanny
tendency to look better with age, as vanquished foes like Louisville, Kansas
State, Wisconsin and Buffalo have charted upward trajectories as the season has
progressed.
Before they started once again treating the Big East as
their personal plaything, Phil Booth, Eric Paschall and
their colleagues were perhaps better known to you for losing to Furman and to
Penn. Those defeats aren't as bad in NET terms as you might assume (they fall
under Quad 2, where they appear alongside seven Villanova wins), but they do
hold the potential to cost the Wildcats in seeding. Put it this way, the higher
Nova rises in the rankings, the stronger the qualitative contrast in the
"loss" department will be with peer teams.
WORK TO DO
Congratulations to Shamorie
Ponds and the Johnnies, proud owners of a two-game sweep over
Marquette. Chris Mullin's guys will get another shot at Villanova in Madison
Square Garden, but, for now, two victories over Steve Wojciechowski's team are
the clear headliners on SJU's profile. St. John's is looking increasingly solid
as the Big East's third tournament team.
Bracket positions don't get more precarious than the one
currently inhabited by SHU. The Pirates are variously projected to be one of
the last teams in or one of the first teams out, depending on your preference
in mock brackets. You might look at the Hall and see a 4-6 Big East team that's
lost six of its past eight. A whole-season connoisseur, on the other hand, sees
a group that also beat Kentucky on a neutral floor and Maryland in College
Park.
Bubble, thy name is Big East. If Seton Hall could go either
way, well, Creighton's right there, too. It turns out the Bluejays really could
have used a win in at least one of the two overtime games they played against
Marquette (last month in Omaha) and Villanova (Wednesday in Philadelphia).
Instead, it came up short both times. Now Creighton's down to just two
remaining regular-season Quad 1 opportunities, at Seton Hall and at Marquette.
The Bulldogs are lurking on the fringes of the bubble
discussion, and a two-point nail-biter at home against Seton Hall did at least
put a capper on what had been a three-game losing streak. That being said, BU's
already lost home games to both Marquette and Villanova. At 4-6 in the Big East
and with road games at Georgetown and St. John's coming next, LaVall Jordan's
team could really use a win -- or better still, two.
Locks: Michigan State, Michigan, Purdue
Should be in: Wisconsin, Maryland, Iowa
Work to do: Minnesota, Ohio State, Indiana
Should be in: Wisconsin, Maryland, Iowa
Work to do: Minnesota, Ohio State, Indiana
SHOULD BE IN
The Badgers beat Michigan, their road victory at Iowa keeps
improving with age and Ethan Happ and
his eager minions are above .500 (6-4) in Quad 1 games. All of which is to say
that you likely won't be seeing Wisconsin in non-lock territory for much
longer.
Close students of the bubble are about to get some needed
seeding clarity with regard to the Terps. Certainly, no one will begrudge a
young team losing on the road to Michigan State and Wisconsin. The 11-point
loss to Illinois at Madison Square Garden, however, was a surprise. So where in
the bracket should Bruno
Fernando and Anthony Cowan
Jr. be slotted? The next three games will speak volumes, with
tests upcoming not only at home against Purdue but also on the road at Michigan
and Iowa.
Locks that haven't lost many games of any kind
notwithstanding, Iowa has one of the sweetest no-bad-loss profiles you'll see
anywhere. This team's "worst" loss is a road defeat at Minnesota.
Otherwise, you're looking at setbacks against Michigan State (twice), Purdue
and Wisconsin. That's it. Never mind the questionable defense, if Luka Garza keeps
blowing up into the next tall Big Ten non-Happ happening, Iowa can earn a
really nice seed.
WORK TO DO
The Gophers would be around a No. 10 seed if the field were
bracketed today, and that road win at Wisconsin is an excellent chip to have in
your pocket. Also, who knew the neutral-floor win over Washington would look
this good? Now Richard Pitino's team travels to Michigan State, where the
Gophers will face an opponent that seems to have lost its way.
That true road win OSU recorded at Cincinnati in its very
first game of the season continues to pay dividends. Still, if the Buckeyes are
to stay "in" the field (quotation marks indicate no one is in the
field, it's February), the team will presumably have to go from 5-6 in the Big
Ten to a near-.500 finish. That's no sure thing with a closing schedule that
includes road tests at Indiana, Michigan State, Maryland and Purdue, not to
mention home games against Iowa and Wisconsin.
History and custom suggest that Indiana needs to get to nine
wins in the new 20-game-schedule Big Ten to be considered for an at-large bid.
The Hoosiers winning five of their last eight is certainly possible, but it
won't be easy. For the sake of discussion, count the season finale at home
against Rutgers as a win, and go ahead and imagine victory in the next game
against Ohio State (also in Bloomington). Beyond that, however, every game is
either on the road or at home against Purdue, Wisconsin or Michigan
State.
Should be in: Washington
Work to do: Arizona State
Work to do: Arizona State
SHOULD BE IN
A win at Arizona State in Washington's next game would lift
defensive artist Matisse
Thybulle and his cohorts to 11-0 in league play. The game
against the Sun Devils probably also will mark the Huskies' last Quad 1 contest
of 2018-19. The question would then become what kind of seed a team earns if it
runs the table in the 2019 Pac-12. On the season as a whole, UW's best wins in
terms of the NCAA's quadrants are all road games, at Oregon, Oregon State and
Arizona.
WORK TO DO
The Sun Devils are holding on to their position in Bubble
Watch for now, but losing at home to Washington State by 21 points is beyond a
bad loss. It is the profile equivalent of not showing up for the job interview.
Playing the Cougars at home qualified as a Quad 4 game, meaning this is now a
Quad 4 loss on Arizona State's résumé. Bubble Watch is pledged to never
overreact to a single game, but Bobby Hurley's team now needs a win at home
against Washington more than ever
Locks: Tennessee, Kentucky
Should be in: LSU, Mississippi State, Auburn
Work to do: Ole Miss, Alabama, Florida
Should be in: LSU, Mississippi State, Auburn
Work to do: Ole Miss, Alabama, Florida
SHOULD BE IN
Take one step forward if you predicted in the preseason that
LSU would be in a second-place tie with tournament lock Kentucky, just a game
in back of tournament lock Tennessee. Led by the ball-hawking of Waters
and Skylar Mays,
this defense has recorded a big year-to-year improvement, one that's pointing
toward a top-6 seed. The Tigers are about to host Auburn before playing at
Kentucky. Those are some choice opportunities.
Losing to LSU at home in overtime was tough, but the
Bulldogs have neither the time nor the need to dwell on that game. An even
better opportunity is coming to Starkville in the form of Kentucky. With a
gaudy 6-2 Quad 1 record already to its credit, MSU can take yet another giant
leap forward with a win against the Wildcats.
With the exception of a lopsided loss at Ole Miss in the
conference season opener, the Tigers have shown an uncanny knack for winning
blowouts and losing nail-biters. This tendency most definitely includes AU's
82-80 loss at home to Kentucky in January. Make no mistake, Bryce Brown and Harper
can score points in a hurry. Meaning, while this team is currently projected as
a middle seed, Bruce Pearl's men have the potential to play their way onto a
higher line.
WORK TO DO
The Rebels are demonstrating how persistence of vision
manifests itself in tournament selection. Ole Miss has lost five of its last
seven, but good work done in November (neutral-floor win over Baylor) and
especially in early January (beating Auburn in Oxford and Mississippi State in
Starkville) is, for now, keeping Terence Davis and
company in projected single-seed territory. Barely.
Welcome to the precarious far reaches of the tournament
field. Indeed, if Selection Sunday were held today, Alabama would be one of
those "could go either way" teams. Beating Kentucky in Tuscaloosa is
a fine start to any résumé, surely, but that's kind of the point. Avery
Johnson's men don't have much more to show aside from a home victory over
Mississippi State. If they did, the Crimson Tide's position wouldn't be quite
so tenuous.
Speaking of could go either way, the Gators are right there
with the Tide. Florida's win at Arkansas stands alone as its only Quad 1 victory.
Then again, the SEC this season offers many chances to improve one's profile.
For UF, those chances will take the form of games against Tennessee and
Kentucky -- both on the road -- as well as two shots at LSU.
Lock: Houston
Should be in: Cincinnati
Work to do: UCF, Temple
Should be in: Cincinnati
Work to do: UCF, Temple
SHOULD BE IN
For a team projected to land in the middle of the bracket,
Cincinnati's seed shows significant potential for volatility. Start with the
fact that the Bearcats have played only three Quad 1 games all season (they're
2-1), throw in one of those unsightly Quad 4 losses (at East Carolina) and then
add the coup de grace of variability. UC gets five Quad 1 chances in its final
eight games, including two shots at Houston. This projected No. 7 seed could
jump or fall significantly. Stay tuned.
WORK TO DO
UCF had Houston on its home floor, but the result was a
swing and a miss. The Cougars left Orlando with a 77-68 win, and the
implications for the Knights are stark: Johnny Dawkins' team probably would be
right on the in/out borderline if the selection were held today. On the other
hand, UCF does have no fewer than five upcoming Quad 1 opportunities (two games
against Cincinnati and road games at Houston, Temple and South Florida). The
Knights have work to do, but they also will get chances.
That "1" in Houston's 21-1 record of course
belongs to the Owls, who took down Kelvin Sampson's group when the Cougars
visited Philadelphia at the beginning of January. Speaking of "1,"
well, Temple's 1-5 in its Quad 1 outings. It's a great win, but, by itself, it
might not be enough to get this team in the field. The Owls did perhaps catch a
break, however, in getting three upcoming road games at USF, Memphis and UConn.
The combination of opponent and venue means each of those games, barely, might
be Quad 1 material.
SHOULD BE IN
Eric Musselman went after Pac-12 opponents in making his
2018-19 schedule, and, well, that league isn't having its best season. The dip
in what was supposed to be major-conference opponent strength explains how
Nevada is currently being projected as a No. 4 seed with a 21-1 record. It also
accounts for the fact that Musselman's team is still yet to play a Quad 1 game this
season. That will change, at last, when the Wolf Pack visit Utah State at the
beginning of next month.
It's a mark of what UB head coach Nate Oats hath wrought
that we're here talking about a MAC team with road losses at Bowling Green and
Northern Illinois in "should be in" terms. Rightly so. Life on the
road in the MAC is tough in 2019, and, anyway, there's the small matter of the
Bulls' 19-3 overall record with their road wins at West Virginia and Syracuse.
WORK TO DO
The Rams won at Texas by one point at the beginning of
December, and there are no Quad 1 opportunities remaining on the Atlantic 10
schedule for Mike Rhoades' team. Who knows, an outright regular-season A-10
title could be enough for an at-large bid (in the event of a loss in the
conference tournament). Anyway, if VCU does play its way into the tournament,
spectators and, especially, opponents will be confronted with one fearsome
defense.
Sam Merrill and
his teammates spent the better part of January beating up on the Mountain
West's lower division before winning a tough road game against a good team (at
Fresno State, 82-81). That outing could be the Aggies' best preparation leading
up to next month's potentially profile-defining home game against Nevada.
The SoCon has never sent an at-large team to the NCAA
tournament, but there's a first time for everything. Wofford's in this
discussion because the Terriers are 20-4 with losses to North Carolina,
Oklahoma, Kansas and Mississippi State. Mike Young's men additionally own Quad
1 wins at UNC Greensboro and at East Tennessee State. Finally, it's worth
noting Wofford won at South Carolina by 20, even though that shows up on the
profile as a Quad 2 victory.
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