The Pittsburgh Penguins will head into the 2019 All-Star
break with a 26-16-6 record, good for 58 points and fourth place in a tight
Metropolitan Division. The team is holding on to the second wild-card spot for
dear life despite having the fourth-best goal differential in the Eastern
Conference.
There’s still plenty of reason to be optimistic about the
Penguins though, especially for a team that was tied for the fewest points in
the East on Nov. 20. Pittsburgh is home to multiple all-time greats, a young
goalie that’s catching fire at the right time and a deep group of skaters with
potential. What will be the biggest challenges this team will face down the
home stretch?
CAN MATT MURRAY
STAY HOT?
Matt Murray is without a doubt the biggest reason for the
Penguins’ success from mid-December until now. He missed 13 games in November
and December due to a lower-body injury that may have been hindering him during
his dreadful start to the season. Here’s what Murray’s splits look like before
and after that trip to injured reserve:
BEFORE: 4-5-1,
4.08 goals-against average (GAA), .877 save percentage (SV%)
AFTER: 10-1-0,
1.81 GAA, .944 SV%
It’s hard to have a more drastic improvement than that. If
anything, the IR stint allowed Murray to clear his head and simplify his game a
bit after the worst stretch of games in his career. The 24-year-old shouldn’t
be expected to produce those same outstanding numbers the rest of the season
but he needs to stay consistent. As long as he doesn’t over-complicate his game
and lets his offense support him, he should continue his impressive play.
Casey DeSmith played fairly well during Murray’s absence,
posting a 7-2-2 record with a 2.62 GAA and .917 SV%. Unfortunately, he’s
faltered as of late, coughing up 14 goals in his last three starts and taking a
loss in each. While Murray is the clear starter, DeSmith has to be reliable in
a backup role
WHEN WILL MALKIN
RETURN TO FORM?
There’s been a lot of talk recently about Evgeni Malkin’s
struggles this season and that’s a testament to what an elite talent he is. Not
many players can be criticized so heavily while scoring over a point-per-game
heading into the All-Star Break. However, he’s benefited tremendously from
being on the top unit of the Penguins’ power play that scores at a 25.7 percent
rate, good for fourth in the league.
The big-bodied Russian has scored just eight even-strength
goals this season, tied with players such as the Minnesota
Wild’s Pontus Aberg or the Washington Capitals’ Brett Connolly.
Malkin is scoring just .17 even-strength goals per game this season. For
reference, that number was .36 the two previous seasons and is .29 for his
career. His shooting percentage of 11.1 in 2018-19 is a significant drop-off from
the 17.2 percent he averaged in three campaigns from 2015-2018.
While conventional wisdom suggests that Malkin will
eventually improve his numbers back toward his career bests, he just looks lost
on the ice right now. Often times when he falls into a slump, he tries to do
too much to break out of it, leading to costly turnovers and failing
confidence, as is the case lately. He’s pretty aware of that at this point,
telling Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette “the
problem is in my head” (from ‘Lacking confidence, Evgeni Malkin critical of
season thus far,’ – Pittsburgh Post-Gazette – 1/17/19).
As long as he keeps things simple, he should be fine, but
that’s usually easier said than done for most athletes. Still, his resurgence
in the second half will be one of the biggest keys to Pittsburgh’s offensive
success.
DEFENSIVE PAIRINGS
DOWN THE STRETCH?
A common issue the Penguins have faced over the last several
seasons is their defensive depth. Kris Letang is having an incredible season
and has put his name in the Norris Trophy race. Brian Dumoulin has been solid
alongside Letang, posting a strong plus-5.7 relative Corsi and is on pace to
set a new career high in points. These two have established themselves as one
of the NHL’s best top defense pairings.
Justin Schultz is expected to return from the IR sometime in
early February, which will be a huge step in solidifying this defensive group.
Barring a major change, he’ll be paired with Olli Maatta, who has just one goal
and 12 points this season. Maatta tied his career best with 29 points during
the 2017-18 campaign while spending most of his time at even strength skating
with Schultz. Reuniting the two seems to be an obvious move and one that will
hopefully wake up the Finnish blueliner.
With that, the Penguins will have their choice of five
players to make up the bottom pair: Jamie Oleksiak, Juuso Riikola, Jack
Johnson, Marcus Pettersson and Chad Ruhwedel. The pairing of choice has been
Pettersson and Johnson, who combined for a plus-eight rating during the
Penguins’ eight-game winning streak, but a minus-six rating in the seven
following games.
Oleksiak is one of the Penguins’ most-likely trade
candidates and it makes plenty of sense to send Riikola to the AHL’s
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins to get the young defenseman some consistent
playing time. That leaves Ruhwedel as the seventh defenseman. While Johnson and
Pettersson appear to be the best option, it’s been seen over the last month
that those two need to be at the top of their games for the Penguins to have
much success.
WHO’LL MAKE AN
IMPACT ON THE BOTTOM-SIX?
In two separate trades during the 2018-19 campaign, the
Penguins sent Daniel Sprong and Derek Grant to the Anaheim Ducks in exchange
for Pettersson and Joseph Blandisi. Sprong and Grant both had roles in
Pittsburgh’s bottom-six and it seems that Blandisi will spend most of his time
with the AHL Penguins.
The biggest question mark in the bottom-six will be the
third-line center, assuming Derick
Brassard does indeed get dished. If the team doesn’t acquire another
center before the deadline, Riley Sheahan will jump up a line to replace
Brassard. However, the bottom-six wingers are going to be the most important
pieces to the puzzle.
The return of Zach Aston-Reese will bump Garrett Wilson out
of the lineup and possibly back down to the minors. Aston-Reese has been a
strong secondary contributor with six goals and 11 points in 30 games this
season. He also adds a physical, grinding style of play with over 100 hits and
27 blocked shots.
Then, it will be up to a combination of Tanner Pearson,
Patric Hornqvist, Dominik Simon and Phil Kessel to bring life to the third
line. Head coach Mike Sullivan likes to alternate this group between the second
and third forward lines. Simon and Pearson have combined for 15 goals this
season and should be the biggest source of scoring on the bottom-six the rest
of the way.
The Penguins are looking for their 13th consecutive postseason
appearance, but it won’t be so easy this time around. The surprising New York
Islanders have the division on notice while the Montreal Canadiens and Buffalo
Sabres look like legitimate threats to make a late push for the wild card
spots. Pittsburgh’s roster will likely look much different by the end of
February, but this team absolutely has the tools and potential to make a splash
during the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
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