PLAYERS TO KNOW,
TEAM NEEDS AND VALUE SIGNINGS
The 2019 NFL free-agency period is upon us.
With contract negotiations starting Monday and the signing
period officially opening Wednesday at 4 p.m. ET. I break down everything you need
to know about the market -- including players primed for big paydays, others
looking for prove-it deals, and more.
TOP OVERALL FREE
AGENTS
1. Le'Veon Bell,
RB
2. Nick Foles, QB
3. Teddy Bridgewater, QB
4. Trent Brown, OT
5. Landon Collins, S
6. Trey Flowers, DE
7. Kwon Alexander, LB
8. Earl Thomas, S
9. Tyrann Mathieu, S
10. Tyrell Williams, WR
11. Matt Paradis, C
12. Sheldon Richardson, DT
13. Tyrod Taylor, QB
14. Ezekiel Ansah, DE
15. Anthony Barr, LB
2. Nick Foles, QB
3. Teddy Bridgewater, QB
4. Trent Brown, OT
5. Landon Collins, S
6. Trey Flowers, DE
7. Kwon Alexander, LB
8. Earl Thomas, S
9. Tyrann Mathieu, S
10. Tyrell Williams, WR
11. Matt Paradis, C
12. Sheldon Richardson, DT
13. Tyrod Taylor, QB
14. Ezekiel Ansah, DE
15. Anthony Barr, LB
2018 team: Giants | Age: 25
There are a ton of veteran safeties on the market, but
Collins is the youngest, and age is a key data point in free-agent
negotiations. And while he might not have elite one-on-one coverage skills, he
has plenty of other playmaking attributes that have propelled him to three Pro
Bowl nods.
TREY FLOWERS,
DE
2018 team: Patriots | Age: 26
Is Flowers one of the NFL's top pass-rushers? Probably not.
But is he the best on the market? Quite possibly. Teams always pay for that ...
and teams always need reliable pass-rushers.
TYRELL
WILLIAMS, WR
2018 team: Chargers | Age: 27
Since the start of the 2016 season, Williams has averaged
more yards per reception (15.9) than all but six pass-catchers in the NFL
(minimum 43 catches). He might be the best big deep threat available.
TRENT BROWN,
OT
2018 team: Patriots | Age: 26
You rarely find an available free agent capable of playing
left tackle at a relatively high level. It isn't any easier in the draft. Brown
demonstrated he could do that last season for the Patriots.
LE'VEON BELL,
RB
2018 team: Steelers | Age: 27
Bell held out all of last season to put himself in a
position to get a precedent-setting contract that reflects his unique
pass-catching skills. Even if he falls short, however, the expectation is that
he will sign a deal that puts him in the upper echelon of running backs.
POTENTIAL VALUE
SIGNINGS
BRYCE
CALLAHAN, CB
2018 team: Bears | Age: 27
Slot cornerbacks are valuable to a defense, and Callahan was
one of the NFL's best last season. According to Pro Football Focus, opposing
quarterbacks had a 78.9 passer rating when targeting Callahan in 2018, among
the five lowest in the league.
RONALD DARBY,
CB
2018 team: Eagles | Age: 25
A torn ACL in November will drive down his price. But
assuming he recovers fully, Darby can be a pretty decent cover corner and
playmaker.
MITCH MORSE,
C
2018 team: Chiefs | Age: 27
Injuries, most notably a concussion that cost him six games
last season, will chip away Morse's price. Still, teams looking to elevate
their offensive line can get a bigger bang for their buck by trying to upgrade
at center than, say, left tackle.
BASHAUD
BREELAND, CB
2018 team: Packers | Age: 27
Last year at this time, Breeland was considered among the
top cornerbacks on the market. A failed physical with the Panthers set him back
and could continue to limit his price. If so, someone will get a good player at
a key position without overstepping
JAMISON
CROWDER, WR
2018 team: Washington | Age: 26
A series of poorly timed injuries scuttled his contract
year. With the number of creative offensive minds around the league, someone
will find a way to maximize his considerable playmaking skills.
MOST LIKELY TO GET
ONE-YEAR 'PROVE IT' DEALS
2018 team: Saints | Age: 26
With Joe Flacco headed
to Denver and Nick Foles expected
to land in Jacksonville, there just aren't a lot of landing spots for
Bridgewater. He might have to go back to New Orleans, back up Drew Brees for
another season and try again in 2020.
EZEKIEL ANSAH,
DE
2018 team: Lions | Age: 30
Coming off a franchise-player season in which he missed nine
games and collected just four sacks, Ansah will turn 30 next month and find it
difficult to convince a team to invest in him long term.
DANTE FOWLER
JR., OLB/DE
Fowler doesn't turn 25 until August, so he's in a different
boat than Ansah. His issue is that he hasn't proved anything yet. The No. 3
pick in the 2015 draft missed his first season due to injury and has 16 total
sacks in the three seasons since
DEVIN
FUNCHESS, WR
2018 team: Panthers | Age: 25
He had a chance to become Carolina's No. 1 receiver when the
team traded Kelvin
Benjamin in 2017, but he couldn't sustain enough production and
has since been surpassed by more recent draft picks. There's still upside
here.
NDAMUKONG SUH,
DT
2018 team: Rams | Age: 32
He just pocketed $15 million for one season with the Rams
and likely moves on. It's not hard to imagine the still-productive Suh year-to-year
it through the final portion of his career the way Darrelle Revis did and
pocketing a boatload of money in the process.
MOST LIKELY TO GET
OVERPAID
TRENT BROWN,
OT
2018 team: Patriots | Age: 26
Brown was seen as a top right tackle when he was with San
Francisco. The Patriots traded for him, moved him to left tackle and won a
Super Bowl. Now he'll get paid as a left tackle. But is he, really?
TREY FLOWERS,
DE
2018 team: Patriots | Age: 26
The beneficiary of all those teams franchising all those
edge rushers. Flowers is the cream of the remaining crop and could clear $17
million a year on his next deal. The Patriots' former defensive coordinator is
coaching the pass-rush-starved Lions -- just saying'.
TYRELL
WILLIAMS, WR
2018 team: Chargers | Age: 27
Went over Williams earlier, but he's all potential right
now. Someone's going to sign him to be their No. 1 receiver, which means he'll
get more than his production to date warrants. Will he live up to it?
MATT PARADIS,
C
2018 team: Broncos | Age: 29
Coming off an injury, but he's far and away the top center
available. Any team with a need at the position will be interested, which will
drive up his price
JA'WUAN JAMES,
OT
2018 team: Dolphins | Age: 27
James might be only a right tackle, but it's a
tackle-starved market and not a great draft for the position. James should
clear eight figures on average in his next deal.
MIGHT NOT SIGN
UNTIL AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE
ANTHONY BARR,
LB
2018 team: Vikings | Age: 27
Barr is a very good player who will make some team's defense
better. And it's entirely possible he lands a deal worth close to $12 million
per year. But linebackers who don't rush the passer aren't generally valued too
highly, and Barr could end up having to wait
DEVIN
FUNCHESS, WR
2018 team: Panthers | Age: 25
The receiver class isn't loaded, but even so, this is a
player with a very specific skill set who might not be in demand until teams
have their rosters a little more set than they are now.
2018 team: Rams | Age:
28
The flooded safety market could make life difficult for
Joyner, whose 2017 season was better than his 2018 and who's coming off a year
in which he made $11.287 million as the Rams' franchise player.
MARK INGRAM,
RB
2018 team: Saints | Age:
29
If Ingram wants to take himself out on the market and look
for a job where he's some team's No. 1 running back, I fear he'll be
disappointed. If he wants to stay with the Saints for $4 million a year or so,
he could sign sooner. That might be his top option.
GOLDEN TATE,
WR
Tate is coming off a down year by his own lofty standards.
He could bounce back and be a great value signing for someone. Feels like a guy
the Patriots snatch up once the first wave passes him by.
NEEDS THE RIGHT
SITUATION
NICK FOLES,
QB
2018 team: Eagles | Age: 30
Foles learned in St. Louis how a career can spiral downward
in the wrong environment. He is a good but not transcendent player who needs
help to win. His reported destination in Jacksonville, where he is
familiar with offensive coordinator John DeFilippo, seems like a good
spot.
EZEKIEL ANSAH,
DE
2018 team: Lions | Age: 30
Size, age and injury history dictate that Ansah will have to
be a part-time player moving forward. If a team with a 4-3 scheme has the
personnel flexibility to cover for him on most downs, Ansah could make a big
impact as a situational pass-rusher.
DEONE
BUCANNON, LB
2018 team: Cardinals | Age: 27
He isn't a conventional linebacker or safety, but Bucannon
has a unique skill set that could be utilized by a team willing to think
outside the box. The mistake would be trying to shoehorn him into a classically
defined role.
CORDARRELLE PATTERSON, WR/RB
2018 team: Patriots | Age: 28
Patterson is lights out when he gets the ball in space, as
seen on kickoff returns in the earliest days of his career. But his success on
offense needs creativity. You can throw him only so many bubble screens. The
Patriots showed another alternative: traditional handoffs in the backfield.
ANTHONY BARR,
LB
2018 team: Vikings | Age: 27
Barr has never been used as a traditional pass-rusher, in
part because he is fast enough to provide decent coverage and tackling in
space. But a team that signs him thinking he can produce double-digit sacks
might be overprotecting.
MOST LIKELY TO
MAKE IMMEDIATE IMPACT
JOHN BROWN,
WR
2018 team: Ravens | Age: 29
If a team needs a deep threat, it could do a lot worse than
signing Brown. Even though he's relatively older, he ranked fourth in the NFL
last season with an average of 17 yards per catch.
MATT PARADIS,
C
2018 team: Broncos | Age: 29
If you can't find a new left tackle to upgrade your
struggling offense, the next-best place to turn is center. And Paradis is the
best available.
ADAM
HUMPHRIES, WR
2018 team: Buccaneers | Age: 26
Productive slot receivers make the world go 'round.
Humphries is the kind of player you can pencil in for 70 receptions in just
about every scheme NFL teams run.
LE'VEON BELL,
RB
2018 team: Steelers | Age: 27
His fresh legs alone, after a season-long holdout, should
put Bell in position for an early-season impact. It will be fascinating -- in a
good way -- to see how, or if, his game has changed.
2018 team: Texans | Age: 27
Of all the free-agent safeties available -- and there are
many -- Mathieu and Earl Thomas have
the best playmaking ability in the passing game.
LIKELY TO SIGN
WITH NEW TEAMS
EARL THOMAS,
S
2018 team: Seahawks | Age: 30
Did we forget about this guy? He's healthy; two months shy
of 30 and was one of the best in the league at his position last season
before he got hurt. There has been speculation around the league that
Thomas will get more than $13 million a year on his new deal. Don't be
surprised if he's patrolling the deep middle of the field for a Southern
California contender.
TYRELL WILLIAMS,
WR
2018 team: Chargers | Age: 27
In a thin wide-receiver market, the speedy, 6-foot-4
Williams wants to sell himself as a No. 1 wideout after being stuck down the Chargers'
depth chart the past couple of years. He's going to convince someone, and he
could end up making $12 million or more with a team that sees him as a
potential No. 1.
RONALD DARBY,
CB
2018 team: Eagles | Age: 25
He suffered a torn ACL in November, but he also just turned
25 and is expected to be ready for the start of the season. Multiple teams are
prepared to pursue him, and Darby could end up with a price tag upward of $12
million per season.
TEVIN COLEMAN,
RB
2018 team: Falcons | Age: 26
Coleman is likely gone from Atlanta after several productive
seasons as part of a tandem with Devonta
Freeman. Is he ready to be someone's feature back? Is he the
consolation prize for teams that don't get Le'Veon Bell?
2018 team: Rams | Age: 31
The Rams could end up needing to replace multiple players on
an offensive line that's been a key factor in their success the past two
seasons. Saffold looks bound for another team and he should be the top guard on
the market this offseason
POTENTIAL TRADE
CANDIDATES
DEE FORD,
OLB
Current team: Chiefs | Age: 28
The Chiefs franchised Ford, who played outside rush linebacker in
their 3-4 defense. But they're moving to a 4-3 front under new defensive
coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, and its possible Ford won't fit. If some team
wants to take a shot on a pass-rusher who had 13 sacks last season, the Chiefs
might be open for business.
DESEAN
JACKSON, WR
Current team: Buccaneers | Age: 32
The speedy veteran is scheduled to make $10 million this
season. The Bucs are deep at receiver and would save that entire amount on
their cap by cutting Jackson. But with receiver not a strong position in free
agency this year, they could find a market for him.
GERALD MCCOY,
DT
Current team: Buccaneers | Age: 31
It's a new coaching staff and potentially a lot of change in
Tampa. McCoy is a phenomenal player and a team leader, and Tampa Bay would have
to be overwhelmed by an offer if it were going to move him. But he is signed
for three more years at nearly $13 million a year, so who knows?
NELSON
AGHOLOR, WR
Current team: Eagles | Age: 26
The former first-round pick has been a very useful player
for a very successful Eagles team the past two seasons. But there's a
difference between "very useful player" and "$9.4 million
player." That's what Agholor is scheduled to earn in his fifth-year-option
season, and a 550 percent raise might be too much for the cap-strapped Eagles
to handle.
SHAQ LAWSON,
OLB
Current team: Bills | Age: 25
His fifth-year-option season isn't until 2020, but that
means an acquiring team could get a bargain in Year 1 and then decide later on
Year 2. The talent is there, but the production hasn't been consistent. Every team
needs pass-rushers, and maybe the Bills can get something for this one.
TEAMS READY TO
SPEND
The Jets have more than $100 million in cap space. But more
important, they have a league-low $75.9 million in cash dedicated to 2019
contracts. That gives them maximum flexibility in the budgetary category that
means the most to owners.
With a league-leading $106 million in cap space, the Colts
can do pretty much whatever they want. But it's important to note that they
have committed more than $115 million in 2019 contracts. They're still likely
to seek high-level help -- safety Landon Collins is a rumored possibility --
but there will be some budgetary limitations.
While it has become cliché to project the Raiders to hit the
maximum boundaries of silliness, the table is set for them to spend freely.
They have plenty of holes and more than $70 million in cap space, among the top
five figures in the league.
With nearly $70 million in cap space, the Niners have the
ability to make a number of big signings. They tried to gird themselves against
that pressure by giving matching six-year contracts to general manager John
Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan, but the truth is, they have 4-12 and 6-10
seasons hanging over them and need to make a jump one way or the other
Although they don't have much cap space at the moment,
expected maneuverings will give the Eagles enough to make a handful of moves.
History shows that general manager Howie Roseman isn't afraid to wade into the
market.
FIVE POSITIONS
LIKELY AFFECTED BY THE DRAFT CLASS
DEFENSIVE LINE
You've heard all about the loaded defensive-line class. Teams
picking in the first half of the first round could play hardball with agents
for guys like Trey Flowers
and Dante Fowler Jr. by asserting that they can get a
high-impact guy in the draft. And with players such as Nick Bosa, Quinnen
Williams, Montez Sweat, Rashan Gary and
others just having torn up the combine in Indianapolis, they could be
right.
TIGHT END
The free-agent tight-end market is spotty. Jared Cook is coming off a big year. Always-injured Tyler Eifert is
back again if you feel lucky. But the draft is stacked. Two Iowa tight
ends -- T.J.
Hockenson and Noah Fant --
could go in the first round, along with Alabama's Irv Smith Jr. And guys such as San Jose State's Josh Oliver,
LSU's Foster Moreau and
UCLA's Caleb Wilson starred
in their combine workouts and could be strong Day 2 picks at the
position.
RUNNING BACK
There's no top-five, Saquon
Barkley- or Ezekiel Elliott-style
running back in this year's class, but there's intriguing depth and variety at
the position. Teams always believe they can find starting running backs in the
middle or late rounds, and they're usually right. So why stretch for a Mark Ingram when
you might be able to get Iowa State's David
Montgomery on Friday night? Or Washington's Myles Gaskin on
Friday or Saturday? Oklahoma State's Justice Hill had
the top 40-yard dash, vertical jump and broad jump of any back at the combine.
The only other running back since 2003 with a 4.4-second 40 and a
40-inch vertical at the combine was Barkley. There's running-back talent all
throughout this draft.
DEFENSIVE BACK
Conversely, evaluators don't seem to think this is a
particularly stellar year for defensive backs in the draft. This might be why
young free agents such as Ronald Darby and Landon
Collins have stronger markets than they might have found in
other years. Teams are still getting prime seasons with those players.
OFFENSIVE LINE
There might be a couple of tackles going early in the first
round, but teams have some trepidation about the readiness of this year's draft
linemen to step in right away and perform as reliable starters. Which is why
free agents such as Trent Brown and Ja'Wuan James get
paid as starting tackles. If there were a Tyron Smith or
a Trent Williams in this group, things might be
different.
Team needs are determined by research and analysis
Several Media Outlets. Cap-space figures are from Roster Management System
databases as of March 6.
TEAM BREAKDOWNS BY AVAILABLE CAP SPACE
|
TEAM
|
TEAM NEEDS
|
CAP SPACE
|
|
IND
|
WR, DL, DB
|
$106,676,837
|
|
NYJ
|
OL, WR, EDGE, CB
|
$101,473,117
|
|
BUF
|
WR, TE, RB, OL, DT
|
$79,871,614
|
|
OAK
|
DL, CB, LB, S
|
$72,878,781
|
|
CLE
|
WR, LB, S
|
$72,704,472
|
|
SF
|
DB, OG, C, WR
|
$69,481,542
|
|
HOU
|
DB, WR, RB, OL
|
$65,121,219
|
|
CIN
|
S, LB, DT, CB
|
$50,776,466
|
|
TEN
|
EDGE, DL, WR, OG, C
|
$44,356,051
|
|
ARI
|
OL, DL, LB, TE
|
$37,363,099
|
|
GB
|
EDGE, WR, S
|
$34,594,929
|
|
DEN
|
OL, LB, TE, CB
|
$34,550,787
|
|
DET
|
DL, TE, CB
|
$33,469,112
|
|
SEA
|
DL, LB, DB, EDGE
|
$33,026,731
|
|
NYG
|
OL, CB, S, LB
|
$27,841,026
|
|
DAL
|
WR, CB, S
|
$27,556,996
|
|
NE
|
WR, TE, DT
|
$26,184,805
|
|
SD
|
CB, LB, DT
|
$22,422,603
|
|
LAR
|
WR, DT, S
|
$22,277,692
|
|
BAL
|
WR, RB, EDGE, ILB
|
$18,283,054
|
|
CAR
|
DB, DL, C
|
$16,870,067
|
|
WAS
|
WR, CB, DL, LB
|
$16,813,473
|
|
PGH
|
WR, ILB, CB, K
|
$16,335,959
|
|
CHI
|
OL, DB, K
|
$13,637,712
|
|
NO
|
TE, CB, OL
|
$10,325,058
|
|
KC
|
LB, EDGE, CB
|
$10,127,532
|
|
MIA
|
QB, OL, DE, CB
|
$9,570,987
|
|
ATL
|
DT, EDGE, OL
|
$7,646,188
|
|
MIN
|
OL, DL, K
|
$5,263,899
|
|
PHI
|
CB, LB, OL
|
$3,760,441
|
|
TB
|
DB, EDGE, LB
|
$2,086,491
|
|
JAC
|
QB, TE, OL, DT
|
($3,411,308)
|
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