We're less than two weeks from Selection Sunday and the most
fascinating postseason event in the world, the NCAA tournament. Degenerate
gamblers, lawyers, doctors, teachers, stay-at-home parents and store clerks
alike will be united in their quests to win their bracket pools and the cash
prizes attached to them.
We're here to help, we think, by sorting through the reasons
the teams ranked in My Power Rankings this week will (or won't) reach the Final
Four.
WHY YOUR TEAM WILL
(OR WON'T) MAKE THE FINAL FOUR
VIRGINIA
Why they will: Virginia's defense is among the
nation's best, which is the norm in Charlottesville. But Tony Bennett also is
coaching the most efficient offense of his tenure, a group that's connecting on
40 percent its 3-pointers while being led by a pair of NBA prospects, Ty Jerome and De'Andre
Hunter.
Why they won't: Last season's loss to UMBC highlighted
Virginia's troubling trend of falling short in the NCAA tournament under
Bennett. You can't blame folks for their limited faith in a Virginia team that
has been a 1-seed three times since 2014 (a 2-seed and 5-seed in the other
years) but reached the second weekend just twice in that stretch.
GONZAGA
Why they will: Mark Few's team boasts the No. 1
offense on KenPom.com, a group that's blessed with All-America candidates Rui Hachimura and Brandon
Clarke. The Bulldogs also have the only win in the country over Duke
at full strength for 40 minutes, along with 15 victories by 30 points or more
this season.
Why they won't: In losses to Tennessee and North
Carolina, Grant
Williams, Admiral
Schofield, Cam Johnson and Luke Maye combined
to make 53 percent of their shots inside the arc and 61 percent of their
3-pointers. We're not sure if Gonzaga can consistently defend against athletes
of that ilk to reach the Final Four, especially since the team hasn't faced a
real test in months.
DUKE
Why they will: When Duke is healthy, Zion
Williamson and RJ Barrett lead
the best team in America, a group that has made 58.8 percent of its shots
inside the arc this season. Plus, the path to the Final Four will demand wins
over elite teams, and no squad in America can match Duke's pool of high-level
W's (Texas Tech, Virginia twice, Kentucky).
Why they won't: A week ago, Mike Krzyzewski spoke as
if Williamson's return from a Grade 1 knee sprain was imminent, but after his
teams win over Miami on
Saturday, he said the phenom wasn't close to competing. Most expect Williamson
to return at some point this season, but the Blue Devils won't be a Final Four
team unless he returns at 100 percent, a more significant concern than their 31
percent clip from the 3-point line.
NORTH
CAROLINA
Why they will: The Tar Heels have manufactured the
best offense in ACC play by any team not named Virginia this season. They've
lost just one game since Jan. 12 and put together an impressive stretch, as
freshman Coby White (62
points, 12-for-22 combined from the 3-point line in back-to-back wins) is
playing like a young guard who can lead this squad to Minneapolis.
Why they won't: Their ACC opponents have made 48
percent of their shots inside the arc, and they've surrendered 79 points or
more in recent weeks to offenses ranked outside the top 50 on KenPom.com. Also,
it's already March and Nassir Little,
a projected lottery pick, is still an enigma despite being the kind of athlete
North Carolina might need to plow through a bunch of ambitious teams this
month.
TENNESSEE
Why they will: Rick Barnes has a group of veterans
who won't break under the pressure of the bright lights in the NCAA tournament.
The Vols force you to defend NBA prospects Grant Williams (19.3 PPG) and
Admiral Schofield (16.4 RPG), while also creating problems with a fleet of
shifty, talented guards who stabilize one of America's best offenses.
Why they won't: Only three programs have solved the
Tennessee quagmire. And all three of them (LSU, Kentucky and Kansas) have
possessed the combination of size and athleticism that opposing teams could use
to interrupt Tennessee on its path to the Final Four in the coming weeks.
KENTUCKY
Why they will: Kentucky has launched one of the most
impressive turnarounds this year and evolved into a national title contender
behind the emergence of PJ Washington (14.9
PPG, 7.7 RPG, 44 percent from beyond the arc), now an All-America candidate,
and Tyler Herro,
a reliable shooter who has made 42 percent of his shots from the 3-point line
in SEC play.
Why they won't: Entering Saturday's game, Kentucky's
opponents had made 49 percent of their shots inside the arc when Herro, Reid Travis (who
is expected to return at some point from a knee injury) and Ashton Hagans --
all listed as average defenders in isolation by Synergy Sports -- were on the
floor together, per hooplens.com. That reality makes potential foul trouble for
Washington in the postseason -- a challenge in the first half against the Vols
on Saturday -- a nightmare scenario that could ruin Kentucky's Final Four
dreams.
MICHIGAN
Why they will: This is another versatile, disciplined
unit in Ann Arbor that's working on its seventh consecutive season with a
top-10 finish in turnover percentage on KenPom.com. Its top-five defense has
anchored a Final Four-worthy program that has collected wins over Villanova,
North Carolina, Wisconsin and Purdue.
Why they won't: The immediate concern for this team's
Final Four hopes is the status of Charles
Matthews, who was on the bench in a walking boot during Sunday's win
at Maryland and
will not play until he's "pain free" from an ankle injury, Coach John
Beilein said. The other problem that could hurt this team is its 33.9 percent
clip from the 3-point line in league play, which will be the program's worst
mark since 2010 if it stands.
MICHIGAN
STATE
Why they will: The Spartans have Cassius
Winston, a Wooden Award candidate who has carried this squad and
produced heroic efforts (19.2 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 43 percent from the 3-point line)
throughout the season. Surrounded by gritty veterans and an experienced coach,
Winston can lead this team to the Final Four.
Why they won't: The Spartans have succeeded in
the Big Ten, America's deepest league. But there will be moments in the NCAA
tournament when Tom Izzo will wish he had Joshua
Langford, out for the season with a foot injury, and Nick Ward,
potentially out for the year with a fractured left hand.
LSU
Why they will: This is one of the most talented teams
in America, and its road win over Kentucky and its home win against Tennessee
in Baton Rouge last month proved as much for Will Wade's group. The Tigers are
also one of America's top offensive rebounding teams, which means Naz Reid, Tremont
Waters & Co. could gobble up second-chance opportunities on
their way to the Final Four.
Why they won't: This LSU squad has surrendered 80
points or more to Florida, Arkansas and Oklahoma
State, all middle-of-the-pack offensive teams in their respective
leagues. Their SEC opponents have made 52.2 percent of their shots inside the
arc, a daunting mark for a squad with national title ambitions.
TEXAS TECH
Why they will: With its constricting defense, Texas
Tech, which has allowed just 75.8 points per 100 possessions this season, will
be a handful for any opponent it might see on the path to the Final Four.
And Jarrett
Culver (17.9 PPG, 3.7 APG) is a closer who will hit clutch shots on
the big stage.
Why they won't: If teams can record an above-average
offensive effort and corral Culver, they'll have a chance to stop the Red
Raiders before the Final Four. Culver is an All-American who has made 46
percent of his shots inside the arc and 25 percent of his 3-pointers in his
team's five losses.
PURDUE
Why they will: Carsen
Edwards (23.5 PPG) is a force for the Boilermakers and an
impressive playmaker who has led this program to the top of the deepest league
in the country. They have the Big Ten's best offense, a critical element in
their current 13-1 stretch.
Why they won't: The Boilermakers have surrendered
nearly a point per possession in league play thus far. And their nonconference
slate is decorated with losses (Florida State, Texas,
Virginia Tech) to opponents backed by the bouncy athletes who could challenge
this up-and-down defense in the NCAA tournament.
HOUSTON
Why they will: Kelvin Sampson's program has been one
of the most consistent teams in the country, with just two losses (Temple, UCF)
this season and wins over LSU, Utah State and Cincinnati.
The Cougars also lead the American Athletic Conference with a 38.2 percent clip
from the 3-point line.
Why they won't: They don't have an offensive
alternative when Corey Davis and Armoni Brooks are
off. In the Temple loss, the duo went 6-for-23, and Brooks went 1-for-5 from
the 3-point line in Saturday's loss to UCF. If they're in a rut in the NCAA
tournament and those two are struggling, who will save them?
KANSAS
Why they will: This isn't Bill Self's best team,
but Dedric Lawson is
one of the most dominant stars he's ever had in his tenure at Kansas. Lawson is
the reason this group has recovered from Udoka
Azubuike's season-ending injury to secure quality wins (Kansas
State, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Baylor) and goes 5-1 over their past six games
without Lagerald Vick in
recent weeks to stay in the Big 12 race.
Why they won't: Many would agree this Kansas team
lacks the consistent excellence to make a Final Four run in this imposing
field. The team's freshman five-star wing, Quentin Grimes,
has not been a reliable threat, and depth remains a concern for a squad that
might not get Vick (44 percent from the 3-point line) back this season.
VIRGINIA TECH
Why they will: College basketball's NCAA tournament
field will be stacked with squads that can stretch the floor and hurt teams
from the 3-point line. And this Virginia Tech squad is one of them, connecting
on nearly 40 percent of its 3-pointers, which opens up the lane for all-ACC
candidate Kerry Blackshear (56 percent clip inside the arc in ACC play) to go
to work.
Why they won't: Virginia Tech has wins over quality
teams without Justin
Robinson (14.4 PPG, 41 percent from the 3-point line), but he's
a critical element for this program's postseason ambitions. With no guarantees
Robinson returns from the foot injury, the arduous task (0.99 points per possession
allowed without Robinson versus 0.89 PPP when he's available this season) of
chasing a Final Four trip would be more difficult.
MARQUETTE
Why they will: Markus Howard is
one of the country's most impactful offensive players. It's not crazy to
imagine the veteran guard putting up 35-plus for four consecutive games on the
way to a Final Four run for a Marquette team that's No. 1 in defensive
efficiency in Big East action.
Why they won't: Any magical scenario for Marquette
will depend upon the reliability of Theo John,
who is averaging 2.3 blocks per game. If he's wrestling with foul trouble --
too often the norm for him -- then the Golden Eagles could lose their vital rim
protector, which could end their time in the NCAA tournament long before the
Final Four.
WISCONSIN
Why they will: With Ethan Happ (17.8
PPG, 10.1 RPG), Wisconsin has bounced back from its 1-3 stretch to start the
calendar year and won 12 Big Ten games. His passing ability (4.7 APG) creates
space on the perimeter for the top 3-point shooting team in the league too.
Why they won't: You can't trust this team down the
stretch in tight games in the NCAA tournament. Happ has made just 45 percent of
his free throws this season and his team has made only 60.2 percent of its
attempts from the charity stripe, the worst mark in league play.
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