Teams can start to negotiate with free agents on Monday. We
know running back Le'Veon Bell won't
be back with the Steelers after sitting out last season. But will
quarterback Teddy
Bridgewater re-sign with the Saints? And where will
safety Tyrann
Mathieu be suiting up next season?
I make my predictions for the top internal free agent on
every team.
AFC EAST
BUFFALO BILLS
Guard John Miller
With $80 million in cap space, the Bills certainly could
afford to bring back Miller, their starting right guard the past four seasons.
Miller, who was Pro Football Focus' 25th-ranked guard last season, could command
a deal in the ballpark of the three-year, $16.2 million contract Mark
Glowinski signed with the Colts this offseason. Glowinski, a
year older than Miller at 26, was PFF's 17th-ranked guard.
Prediction: As the Bills look to overhaul their
offensive line -- they've already replaced Coach Juan Castillo and his two
assistants -- the bet is Miller heads elsewhere.
MIAMI
DOLPHINS
Offensive tackle Ja'Wuan James
The Dolphins' previous staff was lukewarm on James, but the
new regime seems to value him to fill an important hole. James has proved to be
a reliable right tackle in Miami, starting 62 games over his five seasons. He
is arguably the top right tackle set to hit free agency.
Multiple league sources at the combine said James could
surpass $10 million per year in his new deal, a figure that would make him the
second-highest-paid right tackle in the NFL. General manager Chris Grier said
the Dolphins want to re-sign James, but he seemed willing to let the 2014
first-round pick test the market.
Prediction: The Dolphins will make a modest
offer, but James will find a bigger deal in free agency and leave Miami.
NEW ENGLAND
PATRIOTS
Defensive lineman Trey Flowers
A versatile defensive lineman in his prime who has led the
Patriots in sacks each of the past three seasons, the 6-foot-2, 265-pound
Flowers is primed to cash in with a big payday. The Patriots would naturally
like him back, and whether that happens likely will be contingent on how high
the bidding goes on the open market. That's always hard to predict, because it
takes only one team to up the ante to a level the Patriots aren't comfortable
reaching.
Prediction: The Patriots re-sign Flowers.
NEW YORK JETS
Defensive end Henry
Anderson
He improved his market value dramatically in his first
season with the Jets, recording a career-high seven sacks even though he drew
double-teams on 60 percent of his pass rushes (a team high), according to ESPN
pass-rush metrics powered by NFL Next Gen Stats. The Jets want to re-sign
Anderson, but they could get outbid if he hits the open market. He's only 27
and getting better.
Prediction: It's 50-50 on whether he returns,
but if forced to pick -- he's gone.
AFC NORTH
BALTIMORE
RAVENS
Middle linebacker C.J. Mosley
The top tackler for the NFL's top-ranked defense is the best
run-stopper available in free agency. With Mosley in the middle, the Ravens
have allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game (82.9) since he has been
in the league (2014). Mosley could draw interest from the Denver
Broncos and Arizona
Cardinals in free agency. He'll likely command a contract in
the range of $11 million per season, which would put him behind only
Carolina's Luke Kuechly
among highest-paid middle linebackers.
Prediction: Mosley and the Ravens have both been
optimistic about getting a deal done since the season ended. Baltimore
typically doesn't let first-round picks go after they've lived up to
expectations. The Ravens will keep Mosley.
CINCINNATI
BENGALS
Tight end Tyler Eifert
With all three starting tight ends scheduled to become free
agents, retaining at least one is important. Eifert remains the best of the
Bengals' group, even with his extensive injury history. Eifert signed a
one-year deal last season with only $3 million guaranteed. Another similar deal
based on incentives would be expected if he returned. Signing him seems likely
with the lack of other pass-catchers available on the team beyond A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd.
Prediction: He's back.
CLEVELAND
BROWNS
Quarterback Tyrod Taylor
Taylor earned $16 million in 2018 to start three games and
then back up Baker
Mayfield. If he returns to Cleveland, it will be for far less.
Taylor might see what's out there in terms of starting opportunities, but if he
can't find that, he might have to sign with a team as a backup.
Prediction: The Browns give every indication
they have moved on from Taylor.
PITTSBURGH
STEELERS
Running back Le'Veon Bell
The Steelers' decision not to tag Bell instantly makes the
All-Pro back one of the biggest free agents of the signing period. Pittsburgh
figured two franchise tags and one yearlong holdout were enough. And so Bell
gets his wish: the chance to test his true value as an unrestricted free agent.
He should be able to command $14 million-plus per year on the open market.
Prediction: Goodbye.
AFC SOUTH
HOUSTON
TEXANS
Safety Tyrann Mathieu
The safety signed a one-year deal last offseason with the
Texans to prove himself, and he will be rewarded with a big contract for making
that bet. In 2018, Mathieu had 70 tackles, three sacks and two interceptions
and quickly became a leader in the locker room for Houston, making an
impression on the coaching staff. At the combine, head coach Bill O'Brien said,
"There's no doubt that we would love to have Tyrann back."
Prediction: Texans sign Mathieu to a long-term
deal.
INDIANAPOLIS
COLTS
Safety Clayton
Geathers
This would be a no-brainer decision for the Colts if
Geathers didn't have a history of injury problems. The safety never played a
full season and missed a total of 23 games during his four seasons in Indy.
What he has in his favor is that Colts GM Chris Ballard is a big believer in
Geathers, who has the athleticism to play safety or as a hybrid linebacker in
the defense. Ballard said during the combine that the Colts want to bring
Geathers back.
"I love everything Clayton Geathers stands for,"
Ballard said. "I watched a guy every week fight his tail off to get ready
to play."
Prediction: The Colts give Geathers another shot
to stay healthy and re-sign him
JACKSONVILLE
JAGUARS
Wide receiver Donte
Moncrief
Moncrief signed a one-year deal with the Jaguars last March
for a guaranteed $9.6 million and ended up catching 48 passes for 668 yards.
Those were the second-highest catch and yardage totals of his career, but he
caught just three touchdowns and made little impact. The Jaguars scored just
two offensive touchdowns in their final five games, and Moncrief had just 14
catches in that stretch.
Prediction: With Marqise Lee returning
from a knee injury and the development of Dede
Westbrook, there's no spot for Moncrief with the Jaguars in
2019.
TENNESSEE
TITANS
Safety Kenny Vaccaro
The Titans signed Vaccaro during training camp, and he fit
in perfectly from the start, forming one of the best safety tandems in the NFL
with Kevin Byard.
Defensive coordinator Dean Pees loves Vaccaro's physical play, which set the
tone on defense last season. Vaccaro has been vocal about how much he wants to
return to Tennessee, and Titans GM Jon Robinson said Vaccaro will be a primary
target in free agency.
Prediction: It's safe to say Vaccaro will be
back with the Titans in 2019.
AFC WEST
DENVER BRONCOS
Cornerback Bradley Roby
Despite the Broncos being in red-alert mode
at cornerback -- they have three (including Roby) who are scheduled to be
unrestricted free agents -- Roby's time with the team is almost certainly over.
A first-round pick by Denver in 2014, Roby was part of one of the league's best
secondaries in his first four seasons in the league. But when Aqib Talib was
traded before the 2018 season, Roby moved into a starting role and didn't fare
all that well. Unless he somehow returns at the Broncos' price, he almost
certainly will get a better offer elsewhere.
Prediction: It's goodbye.
KANSAS CITY
CHIEFS
Cornerback Steven Nelson
The Chiefs might be choosing between re-signing Nelson this
year or their other starting corner, Kendall
Fuller, next year. The Chiefs like Nelson but believe Fuller has
greater upside.
Prediction: Goodbye. Nelson will be a starter
somewhere in the league in 2019 but not in Kansas City.
LOS ANGELES
CHARGERS
Wide receiver Tyrell
Williams
The big-bodied deep threat will be one of
the most coveted free agents in a thin WR market because of his durability and
playmaking ability. However, the Chargers likely will not be in the running
because they already have a replacement in Mike Williams.
"It will be very competitive, but he's earned it," Chargers GM Tom
Telesco said about the market for Tyrell Williams.
Prediction: Say goodbye.
OAKLAND RAIDERS
Running back Marshawn
Lynch
And not just for box-office appeal, either.
The hard-charging running back was playing his best football since coming out
of a one-year retirement in 2017 when he went down for the season with a groin
injury. Lynch, who turns 33 in April, made $2.5 million in base salary last
season and had a cap number of more than $4.4 million, and he could probably be
had for the same amount. But there are a few factors at play here, namely that
Lynch is still recovering from the injury and has not said whether he wants to
play in 2019.
Prediction: Lynch returns for a swan song.
NFC EAST
DALLAS COWBOYS
Cowboys DE DeMarcus Lawrence refuses to show up to OTAs and
the Cowboys' offseason program until his contract issue is resolved.
Wide receiver Cole Beasley
No one has caught more passes for more yards from Dak Prescott since
2016 than Beasley. He has been a security blanket of sorts to the quarterback,
including a 65-catch, 672-yard season in 2018. The Cowboys had discussions with
his agent regarding a deal during the season and have touched base early in the
offseason, but the team's main focus has been on DeMarcus
Lawrence, Amari Cooper and
Prescott.
Beasley turns 30 in April, but he has missed just one game
in the past five seasons. It might cost more than they want, but Beasley's
chemistry with Prescott makes him a better bet than signing a different free
agent or selecting a receiver in Rounds 2-7.
Prediction: He signs elsewhere for more
money.
NEW YORK
GIANTS
Guard Jamon Brown
Now that Landon
Collins isn't returning, Brown is next in line. He started the
final eight games for the Giants after being claimed off waivers at midseason
and helped stabilize the offensive line. Brown also should help provide some
continuity and come at a reasonable price so they can still address right
tackle.
Prediction: Good chance he returns.
PHILADELPHIA
EAGLES
Linebacker Jordan Hicks
He has shown that he can be a
difference-maker when healthy, like in 2016, when he posted five interceptions,
85 tackles and 11 passes defensed. Hicks has a fairly long injury history for a
26-year-old, however, and has missed 13 games over the past two seasons.
Prediction: He could be back in Philly if the
money is right, but we'll say he gets a more attractive offer elsewhere and
moves on.
WASHINGTON
REDSKINS
Linebacker Preston Smith
Smith has started every game since the
beginning of the 2016 season after joining the Redskins as a second-round draft
pick in 2015, recording 24.5 sacks. He has not made enough game-changing plays,
with only five career forced fumbles and four interceptions. But he's only 26,
is 6-foot-6, 260 pounds with excellent length and could play in either a 3-4 or
a 4-3 base front.
Smith will have his share of suitors, and the Redskins had
yet to even engage him in any contract talks entering the combine. They knew
the money would extend beyond their comfort level. Smith could be looking at
around $12 million per year, a number that could go higher depending on how
many edge rushers are re-signed before free agency.
Prediction: Smith signs elsewhere.
NFC NORTH
CHICAGO BEARS
Cornerback Bryce
Callahan
Callahan, who had surgery to repair a broken left foot
suffered in the Dec. 9 victory over the Los Angeles
Rams, started 10 games in 2018 as the Bears' slot corner. He had 45
tackles, two interceptions and two sacks. Slot corners have become more
valuable in today's NFL, and they will remain so with pass-heavy teams in the
NFC North such as the Packers and Vikings. Callahan has put in four seasons
with the Bears after signing as an undrafted rookie, so they know what they
have in him.
Prediction: While Chicago would like to keep
him, the bet here is an offer will come that's too much to stomach.
DETROIT LIONS
Defensive end Ezekiel Ansah
When he's healthy, he's one of the top
pass-rushers in the game. He has registered double-digit sacks twice and is a
nightmare for opposing offensive tackles. The problem is that he has struggled
with injuries throughout his six seasons with the Lions -- no more so than in
2018, when shoulder injuries limited his effectiveness. At this point, it's
nearly impossible to count on Ansah to play a full season and be healthy.
He is likely to get decent money on the free-agent market --
although it's possible he might have to take a one-year "prove-it"
deal to cash in on a bigger payday in 2020.
Prediction: Prove-it deal or long-term deal, the
Lions are likely to have a new top pass-rusher in 2019. Goodbye.
GREEN BAY
PACKERS
Linebacker Clay Matthews
He has been a productive player for the Packers -- and GM
Brian Gutekunst said last week at the combine that he thinks Matthews still can
be that -- but he's no longer a dominant pass-rusher off the edge. So what's
his value? That's the hard part, which is why the Packers probably will let him
test the market before they make an offer. Same thing for receiver Randall Cobb,
who's coming off an injury-filled season as he heads into free agency.
Prediction: Chances are someone will make
Matthews an offer richer than anything the Packers will pay, and he'll be
gone.
MINNESOTA
VIKINGS
Defensive lineman Sheldon
Richardson
The Vikings placed a high priority on solidifying their
3-technique position last offseason when they signed Richardson to a one-year
deal. While Anthony Barr
was the first domino to fall ahead of free agency with Minnesota electing not
to use the franchise tag on the linebacker, thus propelling him to the open
market, the Vikings would like to keep Richardson for the long haul.
However, doing so will require Minnesota to pay the
28-year-old defensive tackle, who could command a similar market to
Atlanta's Grady Jarrett;
Jarrett will earn around $15.2 million this season on the franchise tag.
Prediction: Richardson leaves. Given how loaded
this class of defensive linemen is and the likelihood that some of the top
defensive-tackle prospects will be there at No. 18, the Vikings will draft
Richardson's replacement.
NFC SOUTH
ATLANTA
FALCONS
Running back Tevin Coleman
Coleman is a big-play threat whenever he touches the
football and had been the perfect complement to Devonta
Freeman. But the Falcons already rewarded Freeman with a contract
extension worth $8.25 million per year, and GM Thomas Dimitroff admitted it's
hard to sign two running backs to lucrative deals.
Other teams around the league notice Coleman's 29 touchdowns
in 56 career games and see a guy who could come in and be a difference-maker;
meaning Coleman is likely to secure $7-9 million a year from some running
back-needy team.
Prediction: The Falcons already have told folks
Coleman won't be back, so they'll let him walk into free agency.
CAROLINA
PANTHERS
Wide receiver Devin
Funchess
Funchess entered last season as the No. 1
receiver but was replaced by first-round pick DJ Moore as
new offensive coordinator Norv Turner went with more speed. The team actually
began saying goodbye after Funchess had five drops in a 20-19 loss at Detroit
in November. It just doesn't make sense to keep Funchess based on the money he
will demand, the lack of salary-cap space and the young receiver talent on the
roster in Moore and Curtis Samuel.
Prediction: The Panthers will say goodbye to the
2015 second-round pick out of Michigan.
NEW ORLEANS
SAINTS
Quarterback Teddy
Bridgewater
Bridgewater would be an ideal successor to Drew Brees one
day. But the 26-year-old is ready for a starting gig now after proving to the
league he has healed from a major 2016 knee injury. Another team should be able
to offer him a bigger role and a bigger paycheck than New Orleans can. The one
thing going for the Saints is that there aren't many teams in the market for a
veteran starter this year. But Bridgewater should be able to land a deal worth
more than $10 million per year, even if it's short-term.
Prediction: Bridgewater signs a one- or two-year
deal elsewhere so he can further increase his market value -- and maybe even
return to the Saints when it's done.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Linebacker Kwon
Alexander
From talking to multiple sources around the
league over the past few months and again at the NFL combine, Alexander should
have a significant market, even for a player recovering from a torn ACL.
Prediction: With limited cap space prior to
signing Donovan Smith,
it's unlikely the Bucs will be able to retain him.
NFC WEST
ARIZONA CARDINALS
Defensive end Markus Golden
All has been quiet between the Cardinals and Golden thus
far, leading to the distinct possibility that Arizona moves on from the 27-year-old.
Golden had 12.5 sacks in 2016, but he suffered an ACL injury the following
season, missing 12 games. He spent this past season trying to get back to form,
finishing with just 2.5 sacks.
Keeping Golden this season could be expensive as the league
searches near and far for pass-rushers. If he signs a one-year
"prove-it" deal -- either with Arizona or elsewhere -- he could
command in the range of $7-10 million, and a multiyear deal would be
significantly more than that.
Prediction: The Cardinals will either move on
from him completely or wait until he tests the market.
LOS ANGELES RAMS
Defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh
Suh had a relatively quiet regular season
with 4.5 sacks and four pass deflections, somewhat surprising numbers given the
amount of attention opponents paid to two-time NFL Defensive Player of the
Year Aaron Donald.
But Suh, a nine-year veteran, proved in the playoffs that he still has dominant
playmaking ability in defending the pass and the run. Suh played last season on
a one-year, $14 million deal and will test the market, where he's certain to
earn another significant payday with his postseason performances in mind.
Prediction: The Rams will say goodbye to Suh,
with the cost too high and their willingness to turn to younger players.
SAN FRANCISCO
49ERS
Defensive back Jimmie Ward
The 49ers already put the franchise tag on
kicker Robbie Gould,
ensuring they control his rights for 2019, and re-signed guard Mike Person.
From there, they don't really have any other must-sign free agents. Ward has
been hampered by injuries throughout his career, which could make him a bargain
for a team looking for a talented player who needs some good health luck and to
finally settle in at one position. The Niners would actually like to bring Ward
back under the right contractual conditions, but he'll probably find a landing
spot that can provide more opportunity and security.
Prediction: Goodbye.
SEATTLE
SEAHAWKS
Linebacker K.J. Wright
Frank Clark got
the franchise tag and it's almost certain that Earl Thomas will
sign elsewhere, which means Wright is the Seahawks' biggest free-agent
decision. He'll be 30 in July and missed 11 games last season because of a knee
injury, so it's hard to imagine the Seahawks making it a priority to re-sign
him, especially with the way they got burned on third contracts for veterans
such as Kam
Chancellor and Michael
Bennett.
That said Wright has been a pillar of Seattle's defense and
was "phenomenal" -- in GM John Schneider's words -- when he came back
late last season. There's also value in his locker room presence.
Prediction: The market will bear an offer that
tops the $6.75 million Wright was making from the Seahawks, and they'll say
goodbye in favor of cheaper alternatives such as Mychal
Kendricks, Shaquem
Griffin or a drafted player.
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