BIG FINAL WEEK FOR
THE ACC
Can the ACC really get three 1-seeds?
That's one of the bigger questions heading into the final
week of the regular season -- and the first week of conference tournaments in
some leagues -- after Tennessee throttled Kentucky and North Carolina continued its march through the ACC. The
Tar Heels have now won 12 of their past 13 games, including a road victory
at Duke. If they handle a road game at Boston College on Tuesday and then complete the sweep of
Duke this weekend, the Tar Heels will own a share of the ACC regular-season
title.
In that case, it will be tough to deny them a 1-seed -- but
if Duke loses again, the Blue Devils could theoretically lose their 1-seed, depending
on the status of Zion
Williamson.
We're getting ahead of ourselves, though. There was a
similar debate last week after Tennessee lost at LSU, but the fourth 1-seed is completely up for grabs right
now. Following the Volunteers' win over Kentucky on Saturday, we kept the
Wildcats at No. 4. After a closer look, however, John Calipari's team drops in
the rankings.
North Carolina has quietly compiled a terrific résumé. The
Tar Heels are strong in the NET and sit in the top five at KenPom, Sagarin and
in the BPI. They have elite strength of schedule numbers and have
improved to 8-5 against Quadrant 1 opponents and 14-5 against Quadrants 1 and
2. They're also 10-1 in road games. Carolina's pair of wins over Gonzaga and at Duke is unparalleled right now, and the
Tar Heels also beat Virginia Tech and Florida State. Their worst loss is a neutral-site defeat to
Texas back in November.
Tennessee moved into the top five of the NET after beating
Kentucky, but the Volunteers' schedule numbers are not as impressive as those
of Carolina. The Vols are 7-3 against Quadrant 1 opponents and 12-3 against
Quadrants 1 and 2, however, including victories over Gonzaga and Kentucky.
Their worst loss was also back in November, to Kansas in New York.
Kentucky has the most Quadrant 1 wins of the three teams,
sitting at 9-4 in that category. The Wildcats have beaten both of the other
teams in the mix, defeating North Carolina back in December and Tennessee a
couple of weeks ago. They also knocked off Kansas and beat Mississippi State twice. They have great schedule numbers, but
also have the two worst losses of the trio, against Alabama and Seton Hall earlier this season.
Don't count out the winner of Michigan vs. Michigan State, either. Both teams have some injury questions,
but the Spartans have the most Quadrant 1 wins in the country and the
Wolverines have the most combined Quadrant 1 and 2 wins.
With less than two weeks until Selection Sunday, we'll go
with North Carolina -- giving the ACC three of the top four teams in the
country right now.
1. VIRGINIA
CAVALIERS (26-2)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 1
THIS WEEK: at Syracuse (Monday), vs. Louisville (Saturday)
After a midseason lull in which Virginia had some
uncharacteristic efforts at both ends of the floor, it seems the Cavaliers are
starting to round into form heading down the stretch. Ty Jerome's
return to health could have played a role, as could the easier schedule. Either
way, Virginia has locked down defensively since the win at North Carolina,
allowing less than one point per possession in five straight games, while also
taking better care of the ball and finding its perimeter stroke again.
2. GONZAGA
BULLDOGS (29-2)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 2
THIS WEEK: West Coast Conference tournament
If Sean Farnham's remarks on Saturday night's broadcast were
any indication, it sounds like Gonzaga could get Killian
Tillie back at some point this season. While Tillie hasn't been
a major factor this season due to injuries, he's a versatile big man who can
switch defensively and also step out and make shots. He provided an added
dimension off the bench during his nine healthy games back in January and early
February.
3. DUKE BLUE
DEVILS (25-4)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 3
THIS WEEK: vs. Wake Forest (Tuesday), at North Carolina (Saturday)
Although Zion
Williamson shutting things down for the season still seems
far-fetched, Mike Krzyzewski's words following Saturday's win over Miami seemed
to at least open up the possibility that the star freshman is still not close
to returning. Williamson has yet to do any contact drills in practice. The
selection committee could face a huge question on how to view Duke's profile if
Williamson doesn't return for the ACC tournament.
4. NORTH
CAROLINA TAR HEELS (24-5)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 5
THIS WEEK: at Boston College (Tuesday), vs. Duke (Saturday)
Carolina takes the final 1-seed for now, but the margin
between the Tar Heels and the next few teams behind them is very slim. On
Saturday, they have the rematch against Duke. In the first meeting in Durham,
Carolina was aggressive in the paint and simply attacked Duke's bigs with Luke Maye, Cameron
Johnson and Garrison
Brooks. The three players combined for 70 points and 30 rebounds.
5. TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS (26-3)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 6
THIS WEEK: vs. Mississippi State (Tuesday), at Auburn (Saturday)
If Tennessee is to make a deep run in March, the Volunteers
will need to guard like they did on Saturday against Kentucky. It was their
most efficient defensive performance against an NCAA tournament team all
season, holding the Wildcats to 0.79 points per possession -- by far Kentucky's
worst offensive effort of the season. Tennessee has experience and toughness
and we saw last season it can be an elite defensive team.
6. KENTUCKY WILDCATS (24-5)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 4
THIS WEEK: at Ole Miss (Tuesday), vs. Florida (Saturday)
Kentucky still has a chance at a share of the SEC title as
LSU still has to go to Florida and Tennessee still faces Mississippi State and
Auburn. But John Calipari will have to hope Reid Travis is
back sooner rather than later. While Travis hasn't put up the numbers he did at
Stanford, his physicality and experience up front has been an asset. Nick Richards and EJ Montgomery offer length and shot-blocking, but against
high-level teams like Tennessee, the Wildcats need someone like Travis to bang
in the post.
7. MICHIGAN
WOLVERINES (26-4)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 8
THIS WEEK: at Michigan State (Saturday)
Michigan still awaits the return of Charles
Matthews, but through two games, the Wolverines have survived without
him. Isaiah Livers slotted
into the starting lineup, and has been a plus due to his motor on the glass and
his ability to step outside and make 3-pointers. He had 12 points and 10
rebounds, including three 3-pointers, against Nebraska -- then followed it up
with 11 points and five rebounds, with three more 3-pointers, at Maryland.
8. MICHIGAN
STATE SPARTANS (23-6)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 7
THIS WEEK: vs. Nebraska (Tuesday), vs. Michigan (Saturday)
Michigan State dropped to third place in the Big Ten
standings after the weekend, but the Spartans return home for their final two
games of the season -- including this weekend's showdown rematch against
Michigan. Its unlikely Nick Ward or
Charles Matthews will suit up for that one, but once again the key matchup will
come between Cassius
Winston and Zavier
Simpson. Winston was terrific in the first meeting.
9. LSU TIGERS (24-5)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 11
THIS WEEK: at Florida (Wednesday), vs. Vanderbilt (Saturday)
Tremont
Waters returned for LSU on Saturday, but it was Javonte Smart who
handled most of the playmaking duties once again. In the three games since
Waters got hurt -- including Saturday -- Smart has averaged 21.7 points, 4.3
rebounds and 4.0 assists. The freshman guard had been somewhat inconsistent in
SEC play, but his emergence has made LSU even more balanced and dangerous
offensively.
10. TEXAS TECH
RED RAIDERS (24-5)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 9
THIS WEEK: vs. Texas (Monday), at Iowa State (Saturday)
The Red Raiders are on a tear right now. They sit in a tie
for first place in the Big 12, with games against Texas and at Iowa State
coming up next week. It could come down to the final day of the regular season.
They haven't won in classic Chris Beard fashion, allowing one point per
possession in each of their past three games -- but they've been dominant
offensively, scoring 1.31 points per possession over their past five games. For
reference, Gonzaga ranks No. 1 nationally on the season at 1.25 points per
possession.
11. PURDUE
BOILERMAKERS (22-7)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 12
THIS WEEK: at Minnesota (Tuesday), at Northwestern (Saturday)
Matt Painter's team is two road wins from an outright Big
Ten title -- and Carsen Edwards' slump seems to be in the rearview mirror. The
All-American guard has now totaled 48 points on 17-for-30 shooting in the past
two games, including 6-for-13 from 3-point range. On Saturday, he had just one
turnover too. When Edwards is filling it up efficiently, the Boilermakers play
at a different level.
12. HOUSTON
COUGARS (27-2)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 10
THIS WEEK: vs. SMU (Thursday), at Cincinnati (Sunday)
How much will Houston's loss to UCF on Saturday hurt the
Cougars' seeding? It's hard to see them getting a 2-seed at this point, given
the logjam of teams ahead of them -- but Houston still has to go to Cincinnati
and will likely get the Bearcats or UCF again in the AAC tournament. For now,
the Cougars stay in the top 12. Armoni Brooks needs
to get it going again, though. The team's second-leading scorer has totaled 25
points in the past three games, shooting 9-for-26 from the field.
13. KANSAS
JAYHAWKS (22-7)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 14
THIS WEEK: at Oklahoma (Tuesday), vs. Baylor (Saturday)
Continuing The Streak remains a possibility, as the Jayhawks
escaped Gallagher-Iba Arena with a close win over Oklahoma State. They have now
won five of six since losing at Kansas State in early February. One positive
over the past two games has been the play of Quentin
Grimes, who had essentially disappeared as an offensive weapon in
Big 12 play. The five-star freshman totaled 29 points and shot 7-for-13 from
3-point range in the past two games.
14. VIRGINIA TECH
HOKIES (22-6)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 15
THIS WEEK: at Florida State (Tuesday), vs. Miami (Friday)
The Hokies continue to quietly move up the rankings thanks
to their bye this past weekend and losses by teams ahead of them. Virginia Tech
is simply not as good without Justin
Robinson, but it's starting to figure things out in his absence --
and the dominance of Kerry Blackshear Jr. down low is a major reason. Over his
past four games, Blackshear is averaging 24.3 points and 11.5 rebounds.
15. MARQUETTE
GOLDEN EAGLES (23-6)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 13
THIS WEEK: at Seton Hall (Wednesday), vs. Georgetown (Saturday)
That was a week to forget for Steve Wojciechowski's team.
Marquette entered it with a chance to clinch at least a share of the Big East
title ... and ended it a half-game behind Villanova in the standings. The
Golden Eagles have really struggled offensively in their past two games,
scoring less than one point per possession in back-to-back games. Turnovers
were the biggest culprit this past week; Marquette had 40 in two games.
16. WISCONSIN
BADGERS (20-9)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 16
THIS WEEK: vs. Iowa (Thursday), at Ohio State (Sunday)
Wisconsin edges out Florida State and Kansas State for the
final spot in the rankings, but the Badgers are really struggling offensively
lately despite winning three of four. They're just seventh in the Big Ten in
adjusted offensive efficiency, and they've been held to less than one point per
possession in six of their past seven games. An elite defense has kept them in
the mix, but they're going to need to be more efficient to win games this
month.
Dropped out: None
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