The team that finished last in the NL Central in 2018 might
have one of the deeper lineups in the division, the best closer and perhaps the
best bullpen. The fourth-place finisher might have the best starting rotation
in the group. The best offseason improvements may have been made by the club
that finished third.
It's true that the best of the NL East teams have spent the
winter working to top each other, from the Atlanta
Braves' addition of Josh
Donaldson, to the New York Mets'
megadeal for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz,
to the Washington Nationals'
run prevention push with Patrick
Corbin and vastly improved defense, to the Philadelphia
Phillies' nearly half-billion-dollar splurge in roster upgrades.
But the NL Central is baseball's best division because there
aren't any gimmes -- no clubs rebuilding or tanking, every team seemingly
capable of winning half their games, or better. If you rank the divisions by
overall strength, it might look something like this:
1. NATIONAL LEAGUE
CENTRAL
The Cincinnati
Reds added Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp as
complementary pieces to a lineup fronted by Joey Votto and Eugenio
Suarez, and fended off inquiries about closer Raisel
Iglesias. The Pittsburgh
Pirates' rotation is dangerous, with Jameson
Taillon, Trevor
Williams, Chris Archer and Joe Musgrove;
this is a big year for the 30-year-old Archer, who had a 4.30 ERA in 10 starts
for Pittsburgh at the end of last season.
The St. Louis
Cardinals landed the slugger they needed for the middle of
their lineup, Paul
Goldschmidt, and veteran lefty Andrew Miller for
their bullpen. The Milwaukee
Brewers won the most games in the NL last year. For all of the Chicago Cubs'
concern about whether they need a regeneration of their competitive edge and
whether they'll get the expected return from their $200 million investment
in Yu Darvish, Tyler
Chatwood and Brandon
Morrow, Joe Maddon's team won one fewer game in the regular season
than Milwaukee, losing the division in a tiebreaker. The PECOTA forecast for
the Cubs may be less than promising, but nobody would be shocked if the Cubs
returned to the World Series; they've got a lot of great and accomplished
players.
It's a great group of division rivals -- the best in the
game.
2. NATIONAL LEAGUE
EAST
You could argue that the AL East was decided last season by
the top teams' success (or failure) against the division's worst team. The
Orioles won just 47 games, and the Boston Red
Sox abused them, winning 16 of 19 -- four games better than
the New York
Yankees, who sometimes struggled against Baltimore and went 12-7.
That swing represented half of the eight-game advantage that Boston had by
season's end.
Which brings us to the Miami Marlins,
who, as the expected doormats of the NL East, will probably have a lot of say
in who prevails in this four-team steel cage match. There may be one more
high-profile addition to the NL East by spring's end: As mentioned Friday, the Nationals could be the team that
lands free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel.
3. AMERICAN LEAGUE
WEST
The Seattle
Mariners used All-Star closer Diaz to dump Cano's contract in
the winter purge of salary, Nelson Cruz is
gone and undefeated Father Time has robbed Felix
Hernandez of his pitching weapons. But amid questions about
whether Seattle is tanking, Mariners officials argue this can't be the case
because they just have too many good players -- Mitch Haniger,
Yusei Kikuchi, Marco
Gonzales, Kyle Seager and Dee Gordon among
them.
But the Mariners and Texas Rangers
will take a step back, behind the Houston
Astros and Oakland Athletics,
two teams that combined for 200 wins last year, and the Los Angeles
Angels, who will again try to overcome a lack of starting pitching
depth to contend. One thing to remember as this season plays out: With Gerrit Cole and Justin
Verlander potentially entering free agency in the fall, some
rival evaluators believe the Astros will again be very aggressive in working to
add help before the trade deadline to extend their window of opportunity.
4. AMERICAN LEAGUE
EAST
It's possible that this division has baseball's two best
teams in the Red Sox and Yankees, and folks with those teams view the Tampa Bay
Rays warily after their nearly perfect series of transactions
strengthened an already deep well of talent. But the Toronto Blue
Jays are rebuilding and probably will look to move Marcus
Stroman and Aaron Sanchez for
prospects, and two more presidential elections may pass before the Orioles are
relevant again.
5. NATIONAL LEAGUE
WEST
The San Francisco
Giants won't say it out loud, but they're going through a
transition, as Farhan Zaidi looks to build the next generation. The Arizona
Diamondbacks are rebuilding, and while the addition of Manny Machado
earned the San Diego
Padres extra attention, they finished 25½ games out of first
last year and their young pitching probably still needs another two or three
years of development.
It might be left to the Colorado
Rockies to challenge the Los Angeles
Dodgers at the top of the division, and Colorado didn't spend
much on roster improvement in the offseason, perhaps saving their money for
the Nolan Arenado whopper
contract extension. L.A. has won six straight division titles, and unless the
Dodgers are hit by a broad wave of injuries and the Rockies' Kyle Freeland and German
Marquez repeat their 2018 success, it might be a division
cruise for Dave Roberts' group.
6 AMERICAN LEAGUE
CENTRAL
If you administered truth serum to members of the 2018 Cleveland
Indians, you might hear an acknowledgment that the dearth of
competition during the regular season ultimately hurt the team. They were heavy
favorites to win the division and did so easily, playing juiceless games
through the summer, and by the time they got to the AL playoffs, they were a
little like a third-tier basketball conference champ suddenly forced to cope
with ACC and Big Ten monsters -- and they were overwhelmed by the Astros.
The Minnesota
Twins have gotten better and appear poised to press the
Indians, and the other teams could make progress. But once again, it'll be something
of a shock if Cleveland fails to win the division behind its deep rotation
of Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, Mike
Clevinger and Shane Bieber.
• A quartet of Red Sox hitters spent some time on a side
field in Fort Myers the other day working on specific situations -- such as
hitting behind the runner with the intent of advancing him and hit-and-run
situations. Dustin
Pedroia and Mookie Betts were
outside the cage, chirping at J.D. Martinez good-naturedly
as the slugger worked on the stuff that sluggers don't usually do. Martinez
clubbed a line drive to deep right field, rather than punching the ball through
the first-base hole.
• Pedroia told a remarkable story about Alex Cora's ability
to see the game the other day, recalling the time when they had adjacent
lockers in the Red Sox clubhouse. As Pedroia told the story, he and the Red Sox
began to discuss a long-term deal after the 2007 season, when Pedroia won the
Rookie of the Year Award, but the front office voiced a concern -- for all that
Pedroia did well, he was not a threat to steal bases, a skill typical for
infielders on the smaller side.
As those discussions progressed, Cora saw in Pedroia's body
language that something was bothering him, and when Pedroia explained the
perspective of the front office, Cora gave a dismissive wave. "No
problem," he said, "we'll get you 20 stolen bases." Cora said
that through the 2008 season, he would pick pitchers and situations for Pedroia
to run to boost his stolen bases, based on the delivery times of the pitchers.
Pedroia would get on first and look into the dugout and get a look from
Cora: Go.
At season's end, Pedroia had 20 steals in 21 attempts. And
he got his long-term deal.
• The Pirates are hopeful that Josh Bell will
take a big step forward this year with his offense after he began to make a
change with his approach last season. Bell has had a tendency to change his
mechanics from at-bat to at-bat -- to his detriment, the staff thought, because
there were times when he wasn't in position to do damage. Bell became more
consistent with his swing by year's end, the staff thought, using his power
better, and his slugging percentage and on-base percentage improved.
Before the All-Star break: .342 OBP, .396 SLG
After the All-Star break: .383 OBP, .440 SLG
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