The clock continues to tick on the Indians and the American
League Central. It has been the Indians’ good fortune to have their core stars
peak at almost the exact time the rest of the teams in the division have
essentially reset their competitive clocks: The White Sox have been rebuilding
for a few years now, the Twins have been tweaking and working toward their best
selves, and the Tigers and Royals are just beginning reconstructions. The
Indians won the AL Central by 13 games in 2018, 17 games in 2017 and eight
games in 2018. They haven’t had to sweat for a while. But eventually they’re
going to have to.
The question is whether or not it begins this season. Fangraphs’
Projected Standings says no, with the Indians projected to win 92
games, the Twins 10 games back, and the White Sox, Royals and Tigers even
farther behind. But the White Sox are starting to creep up, and the Twins have
been impressively active this offseason. Someday, someone’s going to catch the
Indians in this division. For now, we’d all settle for it just be closer.
Thus, today our weekly series previewing each of baseball’s
divisions continues with the AL Central. These previews are extended games of
20 Questions in which we look at four pressing questions for each team heading
into the season, and at the end we will make some actual predictions on the
final standings, predictions that are unassailable and so obviously iron-clad
correct that we’re a little worried you won’t even bother to watch the actual
games once you read them. We are willing to assume such a risk.
Let’s take a team-by-team look at the biggest questions:
INDIANS
(1) HOW IS THIS
REALLY THEIR OUTFIELD?
We’ve spend this whole offseason waiting for the Indians to
make even the most moderate addition to their outfield, but … nope. It’s still
Greg Allen, Leonys Martin and Tyler Naquin, which is wild. We understand the
Indians being wary about spending, we guess, but there are multiple
free agents still on the market who would be an upgrade here,
from Adam Jones to Carlos Gonzalez to, sheesh, Matt Holliday. If you needed
proof that the Indians aren’t particularly worried about not winning the AL
Central, take a look at this outfield.
(2) IS THIS CARLOS
SANTANA THE OLD CARLOS SANTANA?
The Carlos Santana who played in Cleveland from 2010-17 was
one of the most consistent hitters in baseball. The one in Philadelphia was …
well, fine, but not that. The Indians think he’s a replacement for
Edwin Encarnacion, and although he’s a regular lineup presence (he hasn’t
played fewer than 143 games since his rookie season), he’s 33 years old, and
that’s when players like him tend to start to fade. He’s looked excellent this
spring, but it’s a long season. Are they sure Encarnacion isn’t the better hitter?
(3) WHAT’S GOING
TO GO DOWN WITH FRANCISCO LINDOR THIS YEAR?
Lindor will miss the first few weeks of the season with a
strained calf, but once he returns, he’ll surely once again be the borderline
MVP he has been for the Indians his entire career. That’s the sort of player
who gets the sort of contracts that Nolan Arenado, Manny Machado and Bryce
Harper just signed, and that’s not the sort of contract the Indians are in the
habit of giving out. So: Is this the last ride for Lindor, who has two years on
his deal after this year and by all accounts looks likely to
test the market? Do they push that decision to 2020? Much of Cleveland's logic
will be determined by what both the team and Lindor himself do this season.
Because with all these deals just signed … now we know the terms.
(4) THE ROTATION
IS ENOUGH, RIGHT?
The Indians’ plan for winning the AL Central is essentially
to let Lindor, Jose Ramirez and the non-outfield part of their lineup do damage
and have their rotation take care of the rest. For now, that’s not a bad plan,
with Corey Kluber still around after all, complementing Carlos Carrasco, Trevor
Bauer and Mike Clevinger. (And there’s reason to be optimistic about Shane
Bieber, too.) We’ll see if the Indians fall short in the playoffs once again,
but they will take their chances when they get there. For now, it’s Kluber and
the gang or bust. It seems as good a plan as any.
ROYALS
(5) WHO IN THE
WORLD ARE THE CATCHERS NOW?
There isn’t much bigger of a bummer than having the teams
most popular and beloved veteran player ruled out for the season right as
Spring Training is getting started. But with Salvador Perez set to miss
the 2019 campaign after having Tommy John surgery, that’s the Royals’
current reality. The catchers now are two people named Cam Gallagher and
Meibrys Viloria, so … yeah; it’s going to be a long year behind the plate. The
good news is that maybe this reduces Perez’s mileage so that they can use him
in the future, when they are not as bad as they are going to be this year.
(6) DO THEY HAVE
ANYTHING IN JORGE SOLER OR NOT?
When the Royals traded Wade Davis for Soler after the Cubs
won the 2016 World Series, it seemed the sort of smart move they should be
making: taking a short-term step back for a potential huge leap forward. Remember,
there was a time when it looked as though Soler might have more power than any
of the Cubs’ prospects. That hasn’t exactly panned out, but Soler, for the
first two months of the 2018 season anyway, finally showed some oomph,
particularly with his ability to draw walks, something few other Royals can do.
Soler is the only thing remotely resembling a power hitter on this roster
anymore even though, at age 27, he still has never hit more than 12 homers in a
season. He probably needs to double that to stick around.
(7) CAN THEY MAKE
IT 1985 AGAIN BY SCIENCE OR MAGIC?
The Royals, whatever else happens, will be a fun MLB.TV team
to check in on this year, just because of their emphasis on speed. They’ve got
Terrance Gore and Billy Hamilton _and_, of course MLB
stolen-base leader Whit Merrifield. We aren’t sure how any of those hitters are
going to get on base, but when they do, they will be running like crazy. It’ll
be a welcome switch anyway.
(8) WHO IS PART OF
THE LONG-TERM FUTURE?
The Royals are going to struggle this year, and they know
it, but it’s all about building for the future. So who here now is a part of
that future? We know Merrifield is: He’s signed through 2022, with an option
for 2023. But there’s only one Royal in MLB Pipeline's Top 100 (Brady
Singer), and he probably won’t arrive until 2020. So who else? Players to watch
are Ryan O’Hearn (age 25), Jorge Bonifacio (25), Adalberto Mondesi (23), Brad
Keller (23, and maybe the best Royals pitcher last year) and … well, let’s see
who they call up. You’re looking for "Coming Attractions" who can
stick this year. There might not be many.
TIGERS
(9) HOW MIGGY IS
MIGGY?
Miguel Cabrera is an obvious first-ballot Hall of Famer, but
it is worth remembering that it’s going to be a while until that happens. He’s
still under contract for five more years (with an $8 million
buyout for the sixth year!), which means Bryce Harper will only have three
years left on his Phillies contract when we finally all get to vote in Miggy.
So what does he have left? He only played 38 games last year, hitting .299 with
three homers. (Three!) He’ll be the cleanup hitter as long as he’s here,
probably no matter what he does. His back looks healthier this spring. You just
want to see him at least vaguely resemble himself at this point.
(10) WHAT’S THE
DEAL WITH MICHAEL FULMER?
Fulmer has always been billed as a power pitcher, which is
why it’s a little alarming, with all the health woes he has had, that he has
been sitting in the low ‘90s all spring. He says he’s not
worried and the Tigers say they’re not worried, but they have to be a little worried,
right? The former Rookie of the Year has not been the same since his elbow
issues hit in mid-2017, and although he only turns 26 next week, this is not
the sort of velocity that’s going to get him through the season. The Tigers
have a bunch of stud pitchers coming up through the system. Fulmer at this
point has to just hope he gets to join them.
(11) DO THEY TRADE
NICHOLAS CASTELLANOS?
Castellanos seems to want to be traded, and he has a lot to
offer a team at the Trade Deadline, particularly one that doesn’t require him
to play the field. He’s a free agent after the season, so if he gets off to a
hot start, the Tigers would be wise to flip him earlier rather than later.
There is not much else going on with Detroit's offense, so it might get ugly
after he leaves, but the Tigers are more worried about 2022 than 2019. Whatever
he can get them back is gravy.
(12) WHEN DO THE
PITCHERS START ARRIVING?
The Tigers have a whopping five pitching prospects in the
MLB Pipeline Top 100: Casey Mize (18), Matt Manning (53), Franklin Perez (67),
Alex Faedo (79) and Beau Burrows (86). They’re the future of everything the
Tigers want to do, so, understandably, Tigers fans can’t wait to finally see
them at Comerica. (Faedo and Burrows seem the closest.) While there is zero
reason to rush them, they’re the primary reason for hope for Detroit fans over
the next half-decade. Any glimpse of them is a glimpse of that hope.
TWINS
(13) DOES THIS
TEAM HAVE A STAR?
The Twins have a perfectly respectable roster, with no major
holes anywhere, but there is nothing exciting about them anywhere. As Dan
Szymborski pointed out, the team is “excruciatingly, unbearably,
average.” Average is good: Average has value! It also gets you to where
Fangraphs has them: 82 wins. It’s better to win more games than you lose, sure,
but winning 82 games isn’t going to get you in the playoffs. To make the
playoffs, the Twins need upside. Who are the upside players on this team? Are
we still waiting for Byron Buxton to be that person?
(14) CAN NELSON
CRUZ DO THIS FOREVER?
Remember when everyone made fun of Seattle for signing
Nelson Cruz to a four-year, $57 million contract back in 2014? He’ll be 38 when
that contract expires! What fools! Well … turns out, Cruz is still raking like
crazy, to the point that he’s now the central figure in the Twins' lineup,
signed to a one-year, $14 million deal and plopped right in the No. 4 spot.
Cruz looks like the sort of guy who will just hit forever, but, you know,
that’s not actually how this works. Someday he will show his age. If it’s this
year (he turns 39 on July 1), the Twins, who need him to drive essentially
their entire offense, are in big trouble.
(15) CAN JOSE
BERRIOS TAKE ANOTHER STEP FORWARD?
Jose Berrios has been the Twins’ Great Strikeout Starter
Hope for so long now that there’s a temptation to overrate his improvement in
2018. He added nearly 50 innings pitched, dropped his ERA a tad, skyrocketed
his strikeout rate and lowered his walk rate slightly. Yet you can still make
an argument that he wasn’t the best starter on his own team: That would be Kyle
Gibson, who had a lower ERA and better ERA+ (and wasn’t a strikeout slouch
himself). Gibson is a perfectly fine pitcher, but Berrios’ stuff should blow
his away. The Twins’ rotation is less pitch-to-contact than it used to be, but
Berrios has ace stuff. Now would be the perfect season to show it.
(16) WHAT IS THE
PLAN HERE?
The Twins appear to be the second-best team in the AL
Central, and that’s pretty good: Second out of five, nothing wrong with that.
But they are in the scary middle ground of being better than the rebuilding
teams yet not good enough to quite challenge for a postseason spot, which is
precisely where you don’t want to be. The disappointments of Buxton and Miguel
Sano -- who were supposed to be stars, and still could be -- have lowered the
ceiling on this team. (Sano is hurt again and will miss Opening Day.)
The problem with being an 82-win team is that teams below you are building to
be a lot more than that ... and could catch up with you soon.
WHITE SOX
(17) WHEN IS ELOY
HERE?
Eloy Jimenez isn’t just the name Cubs fans will be muttering
under their breath every time they think about Jose Quintana for the next 20
years: He’s the most exciting thing coming to the South Side this year, and
the No. 3 prospect in all of MLB. And he will be coming,
perhaps as early as April. He’s one of the best power bats in the Majors and
the augur for all the White Sox talent that’s lining up in the Minors. If he
becomes the player scouts think he might be, he could be haunting the neighbors
to the north for a decade or so. We will know very soon.
(18) IS THIS THE
YEAR YOAN MONCADA TURNS THE CORNER?
In his first full season in the Majors, Moncada was perfectly
acceptable, slashing .235/.314/.400 with solid defense, which is not bad for a
23-year-old just figuring his way around the bigs. But the problem is that
Moncada was once the No. 1 prospect in baseball, the crown jewel of the Chris
Sale trade, and those numbers can’t help but feel underwhelming in that
context. The AL-leading strikeout total (217!) is alarming, and all told, in
650 plate appearances, you expected more than 17 homers and 12 steals. There’s
plenty of room for growth, and plenty of talent, but the White Sox fans would
love to start seeing it soon.
(19) WHAT WILL
THEY GET OUT OF THE ROTATION?
The White Sox have three fascinating arms in their rotation
under age 26: Carlos Rodon and Reynaldo Lopez, who have shown what they’re
capable of so far, and Lucas Giolito, who, uh, hasn’t. That the White Sox
brought in Ivan Nova and Ervin Santana is a sign that they’d like a more stable
rotation this year to help the kids take the next step forward. Michael
Kopech will be back next year from Tommy John surgery, and
Dylan Cease (the No. 21 prospect, per Pipeline) is coming, so if the White Sox
are going to surprise this season, those two need to give plenty of innings.
The White Sox would like to at least nod at relevance before really going for
it with the young kids in 2020, and any chance of them doing that may rest on
the rotation stabilizers.
(20) SHOULD THEY
HAVE BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE?
Jimenez, Kopech, Cease, Luis Robert, Nick Madrigal, Dane
Dunning, Blake Rutherford ... the White Sox have prospects falling from the
sky. But a strong argument could be made that what they really needed
to do was go the extra mile for Manny Machado so all those players could grow
around him … you know, the way the Padres did with Machado. The White Sox have
tons of young talent coming, but statistically speaking, not all that talent is
going to turn out exactly the way they want it to. They needed some certainty
moving forward. Maybe Moncada is that certainty; maybe it’s Jimenez. But if the
White Sox are going for it over the next half-decade, they may find themselves
missing that centerpiece who is already established. The Padres got that
centerpiece. The White Sox, so far, have not.
PREDICTED STANDINGS
(1) CLEVELAND INDIANS:
90-72
(2) MINNESOTA TWINS: 83-79
(3) CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 77-85
(4) DETROIT TIGERS: 69-93
(5) KANSAS CITY ROYALS: 62-100
No comments:
Post a Comment