PITTSBURGH PIRATES
2018 Record: 82-79 (4th in NL Central)
2018 Payroll: $91,025,861 (27th)
Projected 2019 Lineup:
- 2B
Adam Frazier, .273/.339/.397, 2.0 WAR
- CF
Starling Marte, .282/.334/.441, 3.3 WAR
- LF
Corey Dickerson, .275/.317/.466, 1.5 WAR
- 1B
Josh Bell, .271/.359/.445, 1.8 WAR
- C
Francisco Cervelli, .256/.357/.382, 2.0 WAR
- 3B
Colin Moran, .265/.328/.407, 1.0 WAR
- SS
Erik Gonzalez, .257/.292/.379, 0.3 WAR
- RF
Lonnie Chisenhall, .259/.321/.413, 0.4 WAR
RF returning in May: Gregory Polanco,
.259/.335/.454, 1.4 WAR
Projected 2019 Rotation:
- Jameson
Taillon, 190 IP/3.91 ERA/1.26 WHIP, 3.3 WAR
- Chris
Archer, 191 IP/3.66 ERA/1.23 WHIP, 3.7 WAR
- Trevor
Williams, 145 IP/4.72 ERA/1.44 WHIP, 1.1 WAR
- Joe
Musgrove, 162 IP/4.03 ERA/1.27 WHIP, 2.4 WAR
- Nick
Kingham, 113 IP/4.51 ERA/1.29 WHIP, 0.8 WAR
Offseason Recap:
Once again, the Pirates had a very quiet offseason. While
every other team in the NL Central has been making moves, the Pirates have done
the bare minimum. On offense, they replaced shortstop Jordy Mercer by trading
bench players Jordan Luplow and Max Moroff to the Indians for Erik Gonzalez, a
mediocre infielder blocked by the Indians infield. To replace the injured
Gregory Polanco, the Pirates signed free agents Lonnie Chisenhall and Melky Cabrera
to battle for the starting right field job. Other than stealing the Indians’
leftovers, the Pirates did nothing to help their mediocre offense.
On the pitching side, the Pirates have been slightly more
involved than they were on offense. They traded starter Ivan Nova to the White
Sox to save money, because the Pirates definitely couldn’t
afford to pay $9,000,000 for one more year of a decent 5th starter. To replace
Nova, they signed Jordan Lyles, who struggled as a starter last season but was
solid as a reliever. Reuniting with Francisco Liriano and signing Tyler Lyons
should help bolster the bullpen, but other than a couple mediocre signings, the
Pirates had yet another quiet offseason.
Season Preview:
After a surprisingly successful season, many Pirates fans
hoped that the team would spend money to improve the offense, but, as usual,
the front office did nothing. While this normally would not disqualify a team
from making the playoffs, the rest of the NL Central has significantly bulked
up over the offseason. Even the Reds, who lost 95 games last year, made big
trades and spent money on free agents. All these moves makes the NL Central one
of the best divisions in baseball; and leaves the Pirates behind.
By far the best part of the Pirates’ season last year was
the rotation. Ace Jameson Taillon finally pitched to his full potential,
finishing with a 3.20 ERA and a 3.46 FIP. After starting slow, Taillon finished
the second half with a 2.33 ERA, basically the opposite of his 2017 season. His
emergence as a true top-of-the-rotation arm is one of the biggest reasons why
the Pirates were better than expected last year. Another big surprise last
season was when the Pirates traded Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows, and Shane Baz
for Chris Archer at the trade deadline. While the price was very high for a
pitcher who has had his ups and downs, the Buccos will have one of the best 1-2
punches in the majors if Archer can return to prior form.
Trevor Williams was one of the biggest surprises in the
majors last season. With a low K% and a higher-than-average BB%, he was
expected to be a serviceable #4 starter. However, after a mediocre first half,
he ended the season with a 1.38 ERA in 72 IP, finishing behind only AL Cy Young
winner Blake Snell for lowest second-half ERA. His style of inducing contact
makes his performance volatile, and a 3.11 ERA isn’t likely to be repeated, but
stranger things have happened. Another pitcher who took a step forward was Joe
Musgrove, acquired in the Gerrit Cole trade before the season. After missing
time due to injuries, Musgrove started out hot before fading over the last two
months. With a fully healthy season, Musgrove should be an above-average arm in
the middle of the rotation. The back end of the rotation is much more
questionable than the rest. Jordan Lyles and Nick Kingham figure to get most of
the starts, with Mitch Keller waiting in the wings. Lyles pitched well out of
the bullpen for the Padres last season but was roughed up as a starter, and
Kingham struggled in the rotation after a historic first start. Neither of
these options are ideal, but even with a weak #5 starter, the Pirates’ rotation
should rank among the best in the majors.
In the bullpen, closer Felipe Vazquez changed his last name
and proved that he is one of the top closers in the game. With a strikeout rate
of 11.44 K/9 and a 2.43 FIP, Vazquez should be a top-10 closer in baseball, if
not better. In the setup role, Kyle Crick, acquired in the McCutchen trade, and
Keone Kela, acquired from the Rangers, provide solid support for Vazquez.
Michael Feliz struggled mightily last season, but should get a second chance,
and Richard Rodriguez, who had a breakout campaign, should be a very good
middle reliever. The rest of the bullpen should be composed of some combination
of Francisco Liriano, Tyler Lyons, Steven Brault, and one of Jordan Lyles/Nick
Kingham.
On the offensive side of the ball, Starling Marte returns as
the star of the team. He proved he could play even without steroids, hitting 20
homers and stealing 33 bases along with good defense in center field, compiling
a 3.7 fWAR. He is projected to lead the Pirates’ offense again this year along
with left fielder Corey Dickerson. Dickerson, who was considered a power
hitter, ended up hitting .300 with only 13 home runs. His very low walk rate is
a concern, but he dropped his strikeout rate by almost 10%. The biggest
surprise from Dickerson, however, was his Gold Glove winning defense. Before
last season, Dickerson was seen as a defensive liability in the outfield, but
in 2018 he put in the work in the offseason and won a Gold Glove.
In right field, Gregory Polanco had a semi-breakout campaign
before forgetting how to slide in September. His batting average is still low,
but he almost doubled his walk rate and set a career high in home runs. His
injury will cause him to miss at least the first month of the season, but his
return should provide a boost to the offense. While Polanco is out, right field
will be manned by Lonnie Chisenhall, the oft-injured Indians’ utility man. Chisenhall
has showed promise over the last two seasons, but he has only played 110 games
in that time. If he can stay healthy, Chisenhall should help fill the void
until Polanco returns.
Up the middle, the Pirates let both Jordy Mercer and Josh
Harrison walk away in free agency. Replacing Harrison at second base is Adam
Frazier, a utility player who makes a lot of contact but has little power.
There is a chance that he can reach double digits in home runs and stolen
bases, as well as hitting around .300. At shortstop, the tandem of Erik
Gonzalez and one-half of the Seinfeld duo Kevin Newman should see most of the
AB’s. Gonzalez projects as a glove-first player with little offensive output,
while Newman should fare a little better on offense while sacrificing some
defensive ability. Both have very little power, but Newman has potential to
steal 20 bases after stealing 28 in AAA last season. While neither position
will be a game-changer, they should both provide an upgrade over Mercer and
Harrison.
The corner infield is very difficult to predict for this
season. While Josh Bell and Colin Moran should start at first and third,
respectively, that may change during the season. Bell had a great rookie
season, but lost all of his power last year. His high walk rate will keep his
value, but he needs to find his home run swing if he wants job security. Moran
makes a decent amount of contact, but also has little power and walks a
below-average amount. To make matters worse, both Bell and Moran are bad
defenders at their position, with Bell ranking second-to-last in defensive WAR
at first base. Waiting in the wings is Jung-Ho Kang, who returns after missing
the last two seasons with a visa issue. Kang was a good player when he played,
but nobody knows how he will do after two years away. If Moran struggles, Kang
will almost certainly take over the starting third base job.
One of the best positions on the Pirates last season was
catcher, with Francisco Cervelli and Elias Diaz both having breakout offensive
seasons. Cervelli set a career high in home runs and increased his walk rate to
12.6%, but also missed time with several different injuries. Despite Cervelli’s
injuries, the catcher position was taken care of thanks to Elias Diaz’s
breakout. Diaz hit .288 with 10 home runs in only 277 at bats along with
providing above-average defense. With Cervelli fully healthy, the catcher
position should be all set for the upcoming season.
Down on the farm, the Pirates farm system is more depleted
than usual after trading Glasnow, Meadows, and Baz for Chris Archer. However,
Mitch Keller is still very highly regarded and should be fighting for a
rotation spot by the end of the season. On the offensive side of the ball,
third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes had a big breakout season, becoming a top-50 prospect.
Next year, he will likely push Colin Moran for the starting third base job, if
not by the end of the season. Draft pick Travis Swaggerty has not just a
fantastic last name but also the potential to be a future All-Star, and 6’6”
shortstop Oneil Cruz has a lot of power. Both are still a couple of seasons
away, but show that the Pirates farm system still has some strength.
Overall, the Pirates definitely have the potential to be
Wild Card contenders. A full season of Chris Archer and Joe Musgrove will help
the rotation, and some of the young players have the potential to break out.
However, it will be very difficult to compete with the rest of the NL Central,
seeing how every other team has made impactful moves this offseason. If the
Pirates stay healthy and have a couple more breakout performances, they
definitely have a shot at the playoffs, but they’ll have a hard time getting
there.
Projected Record: 87-75
Player to Watch: Chris Archer, SP
Chris Archer is somewhat of an enigma. His stats suggest that
he should be a very good pitcher, striking out a lot of hitters without walking
too many. He hasn’t had an ERA under 4.00 since 2015, but in each of the last
two seasons his FIP has been over 50 points lower than his ERA. Unfortunately,
also over the last two seasons, his hard-hit rate has skyrocketed to almost 40%
and his HR/9 is slightly above league average. After coming over to the Pirates
at the trade deadline last season, he pitched badly in August but had a strong
September. If Archer can regain the ability that made him one of the best
pitchers from 2013-2015, then he will provide a huge boost to the Pirates
rotation. If not, then the Pirates paid too much for an average starter.
Player to Watch: Mitch Keller, SP
As the Pirates top prospect and a top 20 prospect in MLB,
the expectations for Keller are pretty high. After starting the season in
Double-A and dominating the competition, Keller was moved up to AAA at the end
of June. While he struggled at first in AAA, he ended up with a 3.22 FIP and started
the All-Star Futures Game. His fastball is widely regarded as one of the best
in the minors, and his curveball is a good strikeout pitch. While Keller is
going to start the season in AAA, he will be the next man up in case of an
injury or bad pitching. It would not be surprising to see him make a couple of
starts by the end of the season, and then taking a starting job for good next
season.
Player to Watch: Josh Bell, 1B
After a solid rookie season where he finished third in the
NL Rookie of the Year voting, expectations were high for Bell last season.
While he did raise his walk rate and lower his strikeout rate, Bell’s power
essentially disappeared. His home run total dropped from 26 in 2017 to 12 in
2018, and his SLG dropped from .466 to .411. What’s worrying about the drop in
power is that it may not be a fluke. Bell’s HR/FB% dropped from 19.1% to 9.2%
in 2018, which is right around league average. In addition to his drop in
power, Bell is one of the worst defensive first basemen in the league. Despite
this, he definitely has the potential to hit .275 with 25+ homers every season.
His walk rate and solid contact ability, along with his potential of power,
will keep him in the starting lineup for the foreseeable future. If he can’t
improve, though, the Pirates should probably start looking for a replacement.
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