It is unlikely that the National League West got all that
more competitive in 2019 with San Diego’s signing of Manny Machado to a 10-year
contract. The Dodgers have still won six division titles in a row and have roughly
the same team that has been to two straight World Series. The D-backs are
taking a step back, the Giants are in transition, the Rockies had just about
everything go right for them in '18 and still weren’t able to unseat the
Dodgers. The Padres, Machado excitement aside, still lost 96 games last year.
Los Angeles is still the overwhelming favorite.
But what the Machado signing did was raise the bar. Now the
Padres, with Machado and their incredible batch of Minor Leaguers nearing
the Majors, have declared that they are on their way. The Dodgers were the
rabbit the greyhounds were chasing; now the Padres have stepped up to meet the
challenge. The rest of the division has some questions it needs to figure out
in the next few years -- though the Rockies just answered a big one this week
with the extension of
Nolan Arenado -- but they have hardly been doormats during
the Dodgers’ reign. In the last three years, four NL West teams have reached
the postseason. And the fifth just signed Machado.
Thus: Today, our weekly series previewing each of baseball’s
six divisions continues this week with the NL West. Like every other week, our
previews will be extended games of 20 Questions, in which we look at four
pressing questions for each team heading into the 2019 season, and at the end,
we will make some actual predictions on the final standings, predictions that
are unassailable and so obviously iron-clad correct that we’re a little worried
you won’t even bother to watch the actual games once we read them. We are
willing to assume such a risk.
Let’s take a team-by-team look at the biggest questions:
DIAMOND-BACKS
(1) WHO IS THE BEST
PLAYER ON THIS TEAM RIGHT NOW?
This has been the easiest question to answer the past few
years: Paul Goldschmidt, obviously. But now Goldschmidt’s wearing Cardinal red
and the D-backs have turned the page toward the future … and they are, for the
first time in nearly a decade, star-less. Zack Greinke’s probably the
highest-ceiling player, but he’s a pitcher a bit past his prime. Offensively,
the offense, with Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock gone, maybe revolves around …
David Peralta? Jake Lamb? These are solid players. But you don’t build a lineup
around them. The D-backs have had the "Goldschmidt Identity" since
2012. What are they now?
(2) CAN THEY FIND
A TAKER FOR GREINKE?
Greinke is still owed nearly $105 million over the next
three years, not exactly the sort of salary the D-backs look willing to pay
when they’re waving goodbye to Pollock and Patrick Corbin, and trading
Goldschmidt.
What would a Greinke trade look like? Well, think about when
the Astros traded for Justin Verlander in August 2017. He had $56 million and
two years remaining on his deal (plus an option that kicks in for '20 if he
finishes in the top five of American League Cy Young Award voting this year),
which is $14 million less than Greinke is owed. The Astros had to give up three
prospects -- none of whom have reached the Majors yet, though there’s plenty of
potential for all three -- and the Tigers had to pay $8 million to the Astros.
If the D-backs can get anything close to that, they’d have to be thrilled. But
they need Greinke to be the old Greinke, which, despite how good he was last
year and could be again, is asking a lot of a 35-year-old.
(3) HOW WILL THOSE
TWO CARDINALS WORK OUT?
Somewhat lost in the sadness of the Goldschmidt trade was
that the D-backs brought in two cost-controlled, Major League-ready starters in
catcher Carson Kelly and right-hander Luke Weaver. Kelly had been stuck behind
Yadier Molina for a few years, raking in Triple-A but never able to establish
himself in the Majors. Weaver was terrific at times in 2017 and looked like
maybe the Cardinals’ best starter in Spring Training last year, but a rough '18
knocked him out of the Cards' plans. But these are two young players with
experience and still tons of room to grow. If they can establish themselves --
and they’ll open the season in the lineup and the rotation -- they could be a
solid foundation for the next great D-backs team.
(4) CAN
THE FANS KEEP THE FAITH?
It’s a tough time for D-backs fans, who have only made it
out of the NL Division Series once in the last 18 years, had to say goodbye to
one of their most beloved players ever and now seem to be starting over again.
That’s a lot to ask, for a team to rebuild after never really accomplishing
much when they were full-tilt, and they haven’t even traded Greinke yet. The
future looks bright in Arizona: There are smart people in charge. But 2019
might be about figuring out how the new turf
works.
DODGERS
(5) COREY SEAGER’S
READY TO GO, YES?
It’s important to remember that, for all the early-season
struggles the Dodgers had last year, the only time anyone ever thought they
were really done was when Seager went out for the season. They recovered --
trading for Machado always helps -- but this team is built in large part around
Seager, who still isn’t even 25 years old. Along with Justin Turner, Seager is
the leader of this team, the fulcrum around which everything else pivots. He
was a top-20 NL Most Valuable Player Award vote-getter each of his first two
seasons, and if he’s healthy, he provides that star power that everyone thought
the Dodgers would bring in through free agency in the offseason.
(6) CAN MAX MUNCY
DO IT AGAIN?
We mentioned
this already, but it is worth remembering: Here is how the 2018
Baseball Prospectus Annual described Muncy last year: "Max Muncy munched
on Triple-A pitching, but that's about where his bat maxes out."
It turned out that Muncy maxed out a bit farther than that:
35 homers in 396 plate appearances in the Majors. His platoon splits
aren’t too bad -- he still got on base at a .361 clip against
lefties -- but he’s such a monster against righties that you almost want to
platoon him anyway. (David Freese’s return as lefty-masher gives the Dodgers
some room to play with here.) Muncy was the sort of dropped-from-the-sky star
in 2018 that every team dreams of. That the Dodgers, who were already so good,
ended up getting him almost seemed unfair. But a repeat would seem even more
so.
(7) IS WALKER
BUEHLER THE ACE NOW?
Clayton Kershaw’s arm troubles
this spring have everyone in Dodger land most concerned.
But even before that happened, Buehler looked like the better pitcher in the
2018 postseason, and enters '19 looking primed and ready to establish himself
as one of the best young hurlers in the sport. Buehler was already gaining on
him. But now, with all the Kershaw questions, Buehler’s continued ascension
looks absolutely critical.
(8) IS THIS THE
BREAKTHROUGH YEAR?
The Dodgers waited nearly 30 years to reach the World Series
before losing two of them in a row. Their Octobers keep finding new ways to be
painful, and they’re in danger of turning into Bobby Cox Braves West. These
opportunities to break their fans' hearts are a result of six consecutive
postseason appearances, of course, but you can’t count on those happening forever,
particularly with the Padres establishing themselves as a looming division
power. The Dodgers eventually aren’t going to make the postseason. So they
better win one of these World Series when they do make the playoffs.
GIANTS
(9) THIS CAN’T
REALLY BE THEIR OUTFIELD, CAN IT?
It’s actually starting to get a little unnerving to look at
the Giants’ outfield. Seriously: Mac Williamson, Steven Duggar and Gerardo
Parra? Really? Parra is the big addition! There are still a few handy
free-agent outfielders out there that the Giants should
probably just bring in out of self-respect at this point. They missed out on
Bryce Harper, and there are no obvious outfielders coming up from the Minors, what’s
the plan here? Outfielders usually aren’t this hard to find, you know?
(10) HOW LONG CAN
THE VETS HANG ON?
The Giants have all sorts of aging players who look like the
holdovers of a previous regime: Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Evan Longoria,
Brandon Crawford, Jeff Samardzija, and Derek Holland … all over 30 and girded
up for a postseason run that looks increasingly unlikely to come. New president
of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has a ton of work to do to get the Giants
back to where they’ve grown accustomed to being, and the first steps in that
project might be to ship some of these veterans to teams who could use an extra
bat or arm for the NL pennant chase. You know, like the Giants used to do.
(11) SO
WHAT HAPPENS WITH MADISON BUMGARNER NOW?
We all spent most of the offseason wondering where the
Giants might trade Bumgarner, but it turns out that he’s staying right where he
is. But for how long? On one hand, there’s no better time to trade him, as he's
a free agent after the season and has never really cashed in the way many of
his peers did. What team wouldn’t want Madison freaking Bumgarner in the
postseason? On the other hand, it’s Madison freaking Bumgarner, the guy who won
three World Series nearly by himself. How do you trade that guy?
The Giants still haven’t extended him, and if you don’t have any plans on
extending, and are unlikely to contend this year, how do you not trade
him?
(12) DO THEY HAVE
ONE LAST “ONE LAST RUN” LEFT?
The Giants have spent every year of essentially the last
five trying to rally the troops and squeeze one more title out of the
Bumgarner/Posey/manager Bruce Bochy crew. Well, this is Bochy’s final season,
and with Bumgarner a free agent after this year and a new sheriff in the front
office, this is all there probably is left. Zaidi didn’t dismantle the team in
the offseason, so he’s giving them one last chance. If the Giants get off to a
slow start, the dismantling might begin early. But if they can hang around the
postseason chase, maybe Zaidi decides to add rather than subtract. It’d sure be
nice to send Bochy out a winner.
PADRES
13) DID YOU HEAR
THAT MANNY MACHADO IS HERE NOW?
The Padres might not contend for a postseason spot this
season, they might not even finish over .500, but already, 2019 is the most
exciting Padres season in more than a decade. Machado instantly becomes the guy
this whole franchise is focused on, which is particularly useful because there
are a ton of future stars about to hit the MLB roster who now will be allowed
to progress and grow without having to be The Next Big Thing. Because that
person is now, and will remain, Machado.
(14) WHAT ARE THEY
GOING TO DO WITH ALL THOSE OUTFIELDERS?
The Padres have more intriguing young outfielders than they
know what to do with. Look at all these outfielders, all 27 or younger; Hunter
Renfroe (27), Travis Jankowski (27), Franchy Cordero (24), Manuel Margot (24)
and Franmil Reyes (23). And that’s not even including Wil Myers, who is only 28
himself. Only Cordero and Margot are center fielders, which makes finding spots
for this crew even more difficult. Might we see a couple of these guys packaged
for a starter?
(15) ARE ANY OF
THESE STARTING PITCHERS GOING TO STILL BE HERE IN 2020?
Next year is the target year for the Padres to make another
big move, particularly with the trove of starting pitching they have in the
Minors starting to make their way up, from MacKenzie Gore to Chris Paddack to
Adrian Morejon to Michael Baez to, jeez, how many of these guys are there?
(Seriously, the Padres have seven pitchers in the MLB Pipeline
Top 100.) So when you look at the Padres’ 2019 rotation, it’s
tough to blame any of these guys for looking over their shoulders. Luis Perdomo
is the most fascinating talent, but 25-year-old Joey Lucchesi was the best
starter in '18 … which, frankly, isn’t saying much.
(16) WHEN DO WE
SEE FERNANDO TATIS JR.?
With all the young pitchers down in the Minors, the most
exciting talent is still Tatis, the No. 2 prospect in the game and the guy who
presumably will be manning the right side of the infield in San Diego with
Machado for the next decade. We’ll surely see him at some point in 2019, and
with any luck, we’ll already be used to seeing him in the lineup by Memorial
Day. Signing Machado was a sign that the Padres knew the future was going to be
bright. But when Tatis comes up and those two are out there together, the
future will feel as if it has already arrived.
ROCKIES
(17) IS NOLAN
ARENADO ABOUT TO ESTABLISH HIMSELF AS THE BEST PLAYER IN TEAM HISTORY?
It’s Todd Helton now, obviously, but if Arenado doesn’t opt
out of his new deal after three years -- a possibility, particularly if the Rox
can’t take advantage of this current window with this current team -- you’re
looking at the definitive Rockies franchise icon for decades to come. The
eight-year, $260 million extension he just signed establishes him as the
fulcrum around which Colorado will pivot moving forward: The Rox are committed
to contending as far into the future as you can see. The biggest question of
the Rockies' season, frankly, has already been answered, in the best possible
way any Colorado fan could have hoped for.
(18) IS THIS THE
BEST ROCKIES ROTATION EVER? IT HAS TO BE, RIGHT?
It might not even be close. Kyle Freeland could be the
Rockies’ top starter in franchise history, and he’s backed up by German Marquez
(who may have better all-around stuff than Freeland), Tyler Anderson and Jon
Gray. There aren’t many teams in baseball that can put up a better top four than
those guys, even if Coors Field warps their statistics. The reason the Rockies
nearly won the NL West title last season was actually because of their
rotation. Not a single returning pitcher is over 30. They might be able to do
this again.
(19) DOES BRENDAN
RODGERS EVER GET TO PLAY?
Rodgers is the No. 9 prospect in baseball according to MLB
Pipeline, but he’ll also be 23 in August, which makes him a little older than
your average top-10 infield prospect. His shoulder appears to be healthy, and
he didn’t spend much time in Triple-A in 2018, so he still has something to
prove. But, frankly, not a lot. If Rodgers has a massive spring, he could win
the second-base job, but considering he’s not on the 40-man roster yet, it’s
likely an Albuquerque beginning. But if he can break through this year and take
over the starting role at second base, Rodgers gives the lineup another bat
that it clearly needs.
(20) WAS LAST YEAR
THE PEAK?
The Rockies haven’t had many seasons like 2018. They reached
the NLDS -- they took out the Cubs in the NL Wild Card Game! -- and they won 91
games, the second-most in franchise history. (More than they won the year they
went to the World Series, actually.) But can they expect that again in '19? The
offense looks almost exactly like it was in 2018, except older, and they were
fortunate to have their starting pitchers stay as healthy as they did in '18.
This team loves veterans, perhaps as much as any team in the game. The Rockies
need them to do what they did in 2018 all over again.
PROJECTED STANDINGS
(1) LOS ANGELES
DODGERS: 95-67
(2) COLORADO ROCKIES:
88-74
(3) SAN DIEGO PADRES:
78-84
(4) SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTS: 75-87
(5) ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKS: 72-90
No comments:
Post a Comment