After the first round of the NCAA tournament concluded, we
decided to reseed the field entering the second round. Maybe you loved
your team's seed. Maybe you hated it. (Purdue and LSU fans, we know you hated
it.) Either way, we're back to do it again. Here's our reseeding of the Sweet
16:
1. DUKE BLUE
DEVILS (ORIGINAL SEED:
NO. 1; RESEED: NO. 1)
My goodness. The Blue Devils needed miraculous shots
by Zion
Williamson and RJ Barrett in
the final seconds of a win over an inspired UCF squad in the second round to
advance to the Sweet 16. After the game, head coach Mike Krzyzewski said his
team got "lucky." That's a reasonable verdict after Aubrey
Dawkins missed a game-winning tip-in at the buzzer. Sure,
Williamson had 32 points and a clutch shot in the final seconds, and Barrett
had a go-ahead put-back. But that's not the narrative right now. This is: UCF,
a 9-seed, made a Duke squad that connected on 40 percent of its 3-point
attempts look vulnerable. The same question remains, though: Can any team in
America beat Duke when Williamson plays the way he did against the Knights? For
the past five months, the answer has consistently been "no."
2. GONZAGA
BULLDOGS (ORIGINAL
SEED: 1; RESEED: 1)
A week ago, Gonzaga endured complaints about its status as a
top seed after scoring 47 points in a loss to rival Saint Mary's in the West
Coast Conference tournament title game. Yet, Gonzaga's best-in-America offense
had proven itself in a victory over Duke (10-for-19 from the 3-point line
against the Blue Devils) at the Maui Invitational and in seven wins in WCC play
by 30 points or more. That same powerful unit has reached the Sweet 16 after
registering 170 points in 135 possessions in wins over Fairleigh Dickinson and
Baylor. Brandon
Clarke (36 points, 5 blocks against Baylor) has been the most
dominant player on a squad that has lost one game over the past 100 days.
3. NORTH
CAROLINA TAR HEELS (ORIGINAL SEED: 1; RESEED 1)
The greatest seasons of Roy Williams' tenure at North
Carolina have all been attached to savvy, gritty, tougher-than-hell point
guards. In 2005, he had Raymond Felton. Four years later, he won a title with
Ty Lawson, a 5-foot-11 star. In 2017, Joel Berry fought through multiple
injuries to help UNC capture its third national championship under Williams.
Now, after two rounds of NCAA tournament action, it's fair to wonder if Coby White,
who recorded 17 points and six rebounds in Sunday's win over Washington, will
be the next player to fulfill that role for a title team in Chapel Hill. Plus,
if Nassir Little has
truly found his niche within Williams' scheme -- he scored 39 points combined
in the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament -- this stacked squad might
chase a fourth ring for Williams.
4. VIRGINIA
CAVALIERS (ORIGINAL
SEED: 1; RESEED: 1)
Now that Virginia has advanced to the Sweet 16 and put last
year's first-round loss to UMBC behind it, the Cavaliers should now be viewed
as serious contenders to win the national championship. They've lost to Florida
State and Duke twice (the Blue Devils made 63 percent of their 3-pointers in
the second game), and they're more talented than they were a year ago, when
they didn't have De'Andre Hunter in that loss to UMBC. Proof? Kyle Guy missed
13 of 15 shots in Virginia's win Sunday over Oklahoma, which possesses a top-25
defense. But the Cavaliers still managed to secure a 63-51 win, as Mamadi
Diakite (14 points) stepped up for his team. Virginia has
offensive options it lacked in past years. That's what makes this Virginia team
different.
5. TEXAS TECH
RED RAIDERS (ORIGINAL
SEED: 3; RESEED: 2)
About 48 hours prior to its loss against Texas Tech on
Sunday in the second round of the NCAA tournament, Buffalo dropped 91 points on
Arizona State. The Bulls had been widely recognized as one of America's best
offenses after finishing top-25 in adjusted efficiency and averaging 84.9 PPG
this season. They made 56 percent of their shots inside the arc in MAC play.
They had scored 82 points or more in six consecutive outings. And then they met
Texas Tech, America's most efficient defense, per ESPN Analytics. The Red
Raiders held Buffalo to a season-low 58 points. Chris Beard's squad can guard
anyone, and Jarrett
Culver is a top-10 pick who continues to enhance his stock.
That's a recipe for a run to Minneapolis.
6. MICHIGAN
STATE SPARTANS (ORIGINAL
SEED: 2; RESEED: 2)
Cassius
Winston has carried Michigan State throughout a turbulent
season. He has played without sidekick Joshua
Langford (foot) for three months, and Nick Ward has
averaged just less than 13 minutes per game since returning from a five-game
absence due to a fractured hand. So Winston is still the catalyst for a
Michigan State squad that has surrendered more than 65 points three times since
a three-game losing streak in February. Winston followed his 26-point effort in
a 76-65 win over Bradley in the first round with 13 points, nine assists and
two steals in a 70-50 win over Minnesota, which lost Jordan Murphy to
injury early in the game. The Spartans continue to ride one of the most
talented players in the field on offense with a top-10 defense.
7. MICHIGAN
WOLVERINES (ORIGINAL SEED: 2; RESEED: 2)
The Wolverines reached last year's national title game after
holding their first five opponents in the NCAA tournament to an average of 58.6
PPG and relying on a defense that ended the season ranked third overall on
KenPom. This season's team, on a per-possession measurement, is even better.
Montana, the Big Sky's most efficient offense, and Florida, a middling
offensive team in SEC play, combined to average 52 points per game in first-
and second-round losses, respectively, to Michigan. The Wolverines are just
12-for-38 from the 3-point line as a team, but Jordan Poole, Iggy Brazdeikis and Charles
Matthews have helped them generate the offense necessary to win.
Michigan is a dangerous squad right now.
8. HOUSTON
COUGARS (ORIGINAL
SEED: 3; RESEED: 2)
Kelvin Sampson's squad had hummed along since the start of
the season, chopping through Oregon, LSU and Utah State before winning a
four-bid American Athletic Conference by two games. The Cougars have been known
for defense after their AAC opponents made just 43.8 percent of their shots
inside the arc. But Houston just outscored Georgia State and Ohio State by 45
points combined in two games. The Cougars have lost three games all season,
and Corey Davis Jr. is averaging 23.5 PPG (38 percent from
the 3-point line) in the NCAA tournament. Houston can make a run to
Minneapolis.
9. AUBURN TIGERS (ORIGINAL SEED: 5; RESEED: 3)
The magic continued for Bruce Pearl's squad, which beat
Kansas 89-75 in the second round of the NCAA tournament. Entering the
postseason, the prognosis on Auburn was simple: If the Tigers could force
turnovers and then convert those opportunities into 3-pointers, they would
probably win a few games in the NCAA tournament. Well, that's the formula they
used to reach the Sweet 16. In a tighter-than-expected, one-point win over New
Mexico State in the first round and Saturday's victory over Kansas in the
second round, Auburn forced a combined 32 turnovers and connected on 25 of
their 61 3-pointers. The Tigers have won 10 in a row. They look dangerous.
10. PURDUE
BOILERMAKERS (ORIGINAL
SEED: 3: RESEED: 3)
The Boilermakers played a grind-it-out game in the opening
round against an Old Dominion squad that has played top-50 defense this season.
Overall, the Purdue team that produced just 56 points in a loss to Maryland in
February, scored 48 points in a win over Indiana and suffered a pair of losses
to Minnesota in a 10-day stretch later in the season seemed to lack the oomph
the Boilermakers had displayed earlier this season. But Saturday's
record-breaking performance in a 87-61 win was both captivating and
impressive. Carsen
Edwards (42 points) established a new school record with nine
3-pointers. Purdue's 26-point advantage over Villanova was the latter's worst
loss in NCAA tournament history. After recording a subpar 0.94 points per
possession against Old Dominion, Purdue exploded with a 1.38 PPP and 53 percent
clip from the 3-point line.
11. KENTUCKY
WILDCATS (ORIGINAL
SEED: 2; RESEED: 3)
PJ Washington's ongoing absence due to injury is a real
concern for a Kentucky squad that beat Wofford just 62-56 in the second round.
It was a close game despite Terriers star Fletcher Magee's missing all 12 of his 3-point attempts. Tyler Herro finished
2-for-11. The team's 3-for-13 clip from the 3-point line didn't help, either.
Yet, the Wildcats, who got 14 points and 11 rebounds from Reid Travis,
prevailed without their best player -- and after Herro went cold -- by playing
great defense. Wofford entered the game ranked second in 3-point shooting but
recorded a sub-30 percent mark against Kentucky. The Wildcats will advance, but
we're not sure if Washington will play in the next round. That's why the
Wildcats are ranked this low. The Wildcats without Washington still own a
talented fleet, but they're not the same imposing collective.
12. FLORIDA STATE
SEMINOLES (ORIGINAL
SEED: 4; RESEED: 3)
Leonard Hamilton's squad didn't look great (42 percent on
2-pointers) in a win over Vermont, which made 16 of 32 3-pointers, in the first
round of the NCAA tournament. Against Murray State and rising star Ja Morant,
however, FSU made a statement. The same Murray State squad that had dismantled
Marquette in a 19-point win on Thursday made just 30.2 percent of its shots
inside the arc in Saturday's loss in the second round against the ACC's best
interior defense. Ja Morant made his first five 3-point attempts but missed 12
of 15 2-pointers, the worst mark of his career. With Terance Mann (18.5
PPG) and Mfiondu
Kabengele (21.5 PPG) starring in the both games and a defense
with unrivaled length, FSU could be a handful, again, for Gonzaga in the Sweet
16.
13. LSU TIGERS (ORIGINAL SEED: 3; RESEED: 4)
Tony Benford's ride continued at LSU after Tremont
Waters beat Maryland on a beautiful drive in the final moments
of their matchup in the second round of the NCAA tournament on Saturday. The
Tigers still boast one of the most talented groups in the country. Waters
and Naz Reid are
two of six former ESPN 100 recruits for the Tigers, who have advanced to the
Sweet 16 without head coach Will Wade, who was suspended when he was tied to
reports of a pay-for-play scheme a few weeks ago. But LSU has also been outscored
in second halves of this NCAA tournament by 18 points combined in wins over
Yale and Maryland. They had a 15-point lead against Maryland before the Terps
stormed back. But this group boasts the size and athleticism to compete with
anyone.
14. TENNESSEE
VOLUNTEERS (ORIGINAL
SEED: 2; RESEED: 4)
Tennessee squandered a 25-point lead in its eventual 83-77
overtime win against Iowa in the second round of the NCAA tournament on Sunday.
Had the Hawkeyes won that game, it would have tied the record for the greatest
comeback in NCAA tournament history. The Vols are a strong squad, proven by
wins over Kentucky, Gonzaga and Louisville. But the Iowa comeback magnified recent
defensive lapses for the Vols, whose opponents have scored 106 points per 100
possessions -- a seven-point increase from Tennessee's mark in SEC play -- over
the past 12 games (8-4). But Grant
Williams -- the Wooden Award contender who finished Sunday's
win with 19 points, seven rebounds, five assists, four steals and three blocks
-- is a playmaker who can help the Vols win close games.
15. VIRGINIA
TECH HOKIES (ORIGINAL SEED: 4; RESEED: 4)
Justin
Robinson has been a valuable contributor off the bench (9
points in Friday's 66-52 win over Saint Louis, 13 points in Sunday's 67-58 win
over Liberty) since returning from a foot injury that cost him 12 games. And
Virginia Tech, a top-10 3-point shooting team, is still potent from beyond the
arc (42 percent from the 3-point line in two games). The Hokies held both Saint
Louis and Liberty to fewer than 60 points. But they were 13- and 12-seeds,
respectively. With seven minutes to play, however, Sunday's matchup was a
three-point game. The road to the Elite Eight must now go through Duke, a team
the Hokies defeated last month with Zion
Williamson sidelined by a knee injury.
16. OREGON DUCKS (ORIGINAL SEED: 12; RESEED: 4)
Oregon is the only seed above the 5-line to reach the Sweet
16, so let's forget who Oregon was for the first four months of the season and
focus on the present. A Feb. 28 win over Arizona State kicked off a 10-game win
streak for Dana Altman's squad. The Ducks' 73-54 victory over UC Irvine in the
second round, which followed a first-round win over Wisconsin, was an explosive
effort for a team that started cold after the break but finished with a 38-17
run. Payton
Pritchard and Louis King have
transformed this group in recent weeks. The Ducks will face Virginia in the
Sweet 16. Here's the truth: These Ducks can beat Virginia in the Sweet 16.
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