WHO IS NO. 1?
The 2019 MLB season is just a day away!
At the end of the 2018 season, the Boston Red Sox were
celebrating their fourth World Series title since 2004. But according to our
experts, even with almost all of the Red Sox's star players due back this year,
taking another title won't be easy. They barely won out the top spot in our
preseason poll, edging out the Houston Astros (the 2017 champs) and their
archrivals, the New York Yankees. Those three teams split all of the
first-place votes with the Red Sox and Astros getting six apiece and the
Yankees getting the remaining three.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are favored to be the top team in
the National League for a third straight year, but is this the season they
finally break through and beat the American League champs to win their first
World Series since 1988? The Dodgers were the only NL team to get third-place
votes outside of the AL's top trio (they got two). However, the NL's stronger
competitive balance shines through, with eight of the top 12 teams coming from
the Senior Circuit, including three teams apiece from the NL East and NL
Central.
That balance doesn't end there. The teams ranked Nos. 11-16
all got votes placing them in the top 10, so which teams are on top are sure to
get shaken up as the season gets underway.
For every team, we identified the best- and worst-case
scenarios and the one player who could make or break the season. We also
included the projected records and division finishes calculated by Bradford
Doolittle, as well as the most recent World Series odds calculated by the
Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
1. BOSTON RED
SOX
2019 projected record: 98-64 (first in AL East)
World Series odds: 7-1
Best case: It will be nearly impossible to match
last season's 108 victories -- the most in Red Sox history -- but with almost
everyone back from 2018, including MVP Mookie Betts and
RBI champ J.D. Martinez,
the talent is here to become the first repeat World Series champion since the
2000 Yankees.
Worst case: Is there a scenario in which the Red
Sox don't even make the playoffs? Sure. The Yankees win the division and the
Rays win, say, 95. In the AL Central, the Indians and Twins beat up on a
terrible division and both win 90-plus games. Meanwhile, one of Boston's big
stars goes down, the bullpen struggles and the Red Sox win 90 and still miss
the postseason.
Make-or-break player: Yes, the bullpen is a
concern, but if the Red Sox are going to beat out the Yankees, they'll need a
healthy and dominant season from Chris Sale.
He ended last season with a sore shoulder after spending time on the injured
list and throwing 56 fewer innings than he did in 2017. They didn't need those
innings last year, but with less depth in the bullpen, those innings will
matter in 2019.
2. HOUSTON
ASTROS
2019 projected record: 94-68 (first in AL West)
World Series odds: 6-1
Best case: Shortstop Carlos Correa stays
healthy for a change, second baseman Jose Altuve shows
no ill effects from his offseason knee surgery and ace Justin
Verlander continues to flip the bird at Father Time. If all
that happens, Houston could become the first team since the 2002-04 Yankees to
win 100 games in three straight seasons.
Worst case: Verlander realizes that he's closer
to 40 than 30 and falls off a cliff. Collin McHugh, Wade Miley and Brad Peacock do
a horrible impression of last year's No. 3, 4, and 5 starters (Dallas
Keuchel, Charlie
Morton, Lance
McCullers Jr.). As a result, Houston gives up runs by the boatload
and misses the playoffs for the first time since 2016.
Make-or-break player: In the 25 games that
Altuve missed last season, the Astros won at a .440 clip (11-14). In the games
he played, they posted a .671 winning percentage (92-45). So yeah, the former
MVP kinda matters. But don't underestimate the importance of McHugh. After a
year of exile in the pen, the Astros are counting on him to fill Keuchel's
sizable shoes. That's no easy feat, especially for a guy who has averaged just
north of 70 innings over the past two seasons. -- Eddie Matz
3. NEW YORK
YANKEES
2019 projected record: 94-68 (second in AL East)
World Series odds: 5-1
Best case: At the start of spring, Brett Gardner bluntly
gave his assessment of where the Yankees should end 2019. For his squad, the
outfielder believes it's all about the World Series. "Anything short of
that is not acceptable," he said. For a group that was a game away from the
World Series two years ago and lost in the American League Division Series to
the eventual champs a year ago, the Yankees have flirted with the championship
round long enough.
Worst case: Given the history of success in the
Bronx, making the postseason is always goal No. 1. With a division that's
getting stronger, that objective won't be easy to attain. So, the worst-case
scenario -- which still seems a far-fetched concept at this point -- would be
if the injury bug that's set in this spring persists deep into the season,
causing the Yankees to fail to get past the Red Sox or qualify for a wild-card
berth.
Make-or-break player: Perhaps no spring training
injury has been as concerning for the Yankees as Luis Severino's.
The right-handed starter's shoulder inflammation appears to be something the
club can manage for now, but what if it becomes a deeper issue later in the
season? Though New York certainly addressed weaknesses in its rotation this
offseason, it didn't expect its ace to start the season on the injured list.
4. LOS ANGELES
DODGERS
2019 projected record: 93-69 (first in NL West)
World Series odds: 7-1
Best case: The Dodgers will once again benefit
from baseball's best starting pitching depth. Their biggest concerns last
season revolved around the back end of their bullpen and their success -- or
lack thereof -- against lefties. But hard-throwing reliever Joe Kelly was
signed to shore up the former, and right-handed-hitting center fielder A.J. Pollock should
help the latter. The Dodgers have an embarrassment of riches, both on their
40-man roster and in their farm system. They also reside in a bad division.
Worst case: Their ace, Clayton
Kershaw, and their closer, Kenley Jansen,
are both seemingly trending in the wrong direction, each of them coming off
disappointing 2018 seasons -- by their standards -- and costing more than $41
million combined in 2019. Their continued struggles could cause a lot of
disruption. The Dodgers are also banking on Max Muncy duplicating
his stunning success from last summer and Corey Seager returning
to the All-Star form he displayed in 2017. Neither is a guarantee.
Make-or-break player: Kershaw, who signed a
three-year, $93 million extension only days after a second consecutive defeat
in the World Series. He is a first-ballot Hall of Famer already, but he also
compiled nearly 2,250 innings before his age-31 season, missed time each of the
past three years with a back injury and suffered a drastic velocity drop last
season. The Dodgers have young starting pitching to build around with Walker
Buehler and Julio Urias,
but they probably need a close-to-elite Kershaw in 2019.
5. MILWAUKEE
BREWERS
2019 projected record: 74-88 (fourth in NL
Central)
World Series odds: 16-1
Best case: Manager Craig Counsell can play both
the "unfinished business" card as well as the
"disrespected" card even though the Brewers got all the way to Game 7
of the NLCS last year. Las Vegas has their over/under at just 86.5 wins and
there's little doubt many will pick the Cubs or Cardinals to unseat them at the
top of the division. On the field, they are as deep as ever and there's no
reason reigning MVP Christian
Yelich can't pick up where he left off. He's in his prime --
and so are the Brewers.
Worst case: It's possible all those questions
about their starting pitching prove to be warranted, as Milwaukee's strategy of
creatively getting 27 outs eventually backfires. Most of that revolves
around Josh Hader,
who gives Counsell the ability to cross off six to nine outs almost every time
he pitches. Milwaukee did little to upgrade on the mound, probably because it
all worked last season. The Brewers also played the best possible baseball and
barely squeaked by in the division. One ounce of complacency could cost them.
Make-or-break player: There's probably a few
starting pitchers you could choose from, but it really has to come down to
Hader. He's such a luxury for a manager, and if he's limited or ineffective in
any way, the Brewers will have to change their plans on the fly. Their offense
is deep, and the rest of the staff has its roles, but Hader gives them so much
on the days he pitches. He remains the key.
6. CHICAGO CUBS
2019 projected record: 93-69 (first in NL
Central)
World Series odds: 12-1
Best case: The Cubs stay healthy and reach peak
potential out of a starting staff made up of five No. 2 and 3 pitchers, while
their offense returns to a walking/slugging mentality that they abandoned last
season. It wouldn't hurt if closer Brandon
Morrow returned in May and gave them a solid -- and healthy --
five months. But most of the Cubs' success will involve that aging rotation and
the middle of the order. On paper, the names scream talent and potential.
Worst case: It's possible the rest of the NL
truly has caught up to the Cubs, as the Brewers proved last year, while the
ceilings both on offense and on the mound are much lower than the team
anticipates. As is, they don't have a true No. 1 -- think Scherzer, deGrom or
Nola -- and their offensive production in the outfield looks about the same as
a year ago. In other words, not very good. And if Morrow can't deliver, it puts
a huge strain on the rest of the pen -- as well as the front office. They'll
likely need to get ninth-inning help.
Make-or-break player: Catcher Willson
Contreras is a key on several fronts. First off, he's catching
a low-velocity, high-pitch ability staff. Cubs starters simply aren't going to
be blowing anyone away, which means he'll have to steal as many strikes as he
can -- an area of the game he's been working on. He's also very important on
offense simply because he needs to make up for a lack of production in the
outfield.
7. CLEVELAND
INDIANS
2019 projected record: 92-70 (first in AL
Central)
World Series odds: 10-1
Best case: If the Indians' rotation lives up to
its billing, and if the Cleveland front office is motivated by a little pressure
from the other clubs in the AL Central, Cleveland has plenty of time to
identify and fill the remaining holes on its roster before the postseason. Once
the Indians are back in October, hot streaks from that star-studded rotation
and elite hitters Jose Ramirez and Francisco
Lindor can steer Cleveland past the rugged AL playoff field and
to its first title in 71 years.
Worst case: An injury to one of the stud
starters and a mushrooming of the potential signs of a Corey Kluber decline
could put Cleveland in an early hole, opening the door for the Twins. Even that
might not be enough, and given the Indians' talent edge, an off season from
Ramirez or Lindor may have to play a part as well. In any event, if the Indians
are facing a sizable deficit in the division when we hit July, we might see the
front office decide to reset.
Make-or-break player: The Indians gambled by
trading away veteran catcher Yan Gomes,
which puts Roberto Perez squarely
under the gun. Perez has been one of baseball's better defensive catchers in a
part-time role for a few years. But can he continue that work with the vaunted
Cleveland staff in a larger role? Forget his bat -- if there is any drop-off in
Cleveland's pitching stemming from the loss of Gomes, that's a major problem.
8. ATLANTA
BRAVES
2019 projected record: 86-76 (second in NL East)
World Series odds: 20-1
Best case: If Josh
Donaldson has a healthy comeback season and Ronald Acuna
Jr. improves upon his epic rookie season, the Braves have the
potential to light up SunTrust Park like a pinball machine. Spring injuries to
the pitching staff are a concern, but there are enough high-level arms in
Atlanta's organization to make it work. There is a reason the Braves weren't
that aggressive during the offseason: This is a stacked system.
Worst case: Alas, you can't assume that Acuna's
arc will continue skyward. He's going to be great, but these developments don't
always unfold in an orderly fashion. If the league adjusts to him, Donaldson
gets hurt again and younger Braves like Dansby
Swanson and Ozzie Albies don't
take a step forward, scoring all of a sudden becomes a problem. If that
happens, then the club will come under scrutiny for not pursuing Bryce Harper or Manny Machado.
Make-or-break player: One thought on the Braves'
approach to the winter is that they didn't need a decade of Harper or Machado.
They needed one season of that, as Acuna and Albies are still on the climb and
will soon be joined by the likes of Austin Riley and Christian Pache. That one,
star-level season will hopefully be provided by Donaldson, an MVP candidate
when healthy. The problem: Donaldson has not been able to stay healthy.
9. WASHINGTON
NATIONALS
2019 projected record: 85-77 (third in NL East)
World Series odds: 12-1
Best case: Starters Max Scherzer, Stephen
Strasburg and Patrick
Corbin finish 1-2-3 in the CY Young voting. Juan Soto builds
on his standout rookie campaign and, at the age of 20, breaks Bryce Harper's
record for the youngest unanimous MVP in baseball history. Adam Eaton stays
whole, Trea Turner steals
100 bases and Victor Robles wins
Rookie of the Year, as the Nationals -- who have never won so much as a single
playoff series -- win the World Series in year one A.B. (After Bryce).
Worst case: Scherzer proves that, contrary to
popular belief, he's human. Strasburg proves that bionic elbows do, in fact,
have a time stamp. And Corbin proves that his 2018 was a mirage. A thin bullpen
can't mask the rotation's woes, and the offense sputters in Year 1 A.B. The
Nats miss the playoffs for a second straight season. Even worse, they're forced
to watch as Harper wins his second MVP and leads the Phillies to a
championship.
Make-or-break player: Since coming to D.C. in
2017, Eaton's .394 on-base percentages is 11th best in the NL (min. 100 G). The
problem is, his on-field percentage is only .364 (as in, he has missed 64
percent of Washington's games). For the Nationals to do what they believe they
can do, they'll need Eaton to be a regular fixture in the lineup -- not just at
the top of the order, but also in right field, where he should be a significant
defensive upgrade over the guy who used to play there.
10. PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIES
2019 projected record: 84-78 (fourth in NL East)
World Series odds: 12-1
Best case: It's all on the table for a team that
hasn't posted a winning record since 2011. The offense should be one of the
league's best, especially if a certain high-profile free-agent acquisition pays
off. The defense? Well, it can't be worse, right? The bullpen looks strong,
whether or not the Phils add to the back end. That puts the onus on a top-heavy
starting rotation. Aaron Nola must
approximate his great 2018 season; Jake Arrieta needs
to remain a legit No. 2; and Nick Pivetta,
Zach Eflin and Vince
Velasquez need to nail down their spots. If the Phillies get
strong starting pitching from stem to stern, they will win the NL East.
Worst case: What if, in Year 1 of 13, Bryce Harper hits
.230? The Phils could find that their window of contention, which seems to just
be opening, is stuck. Those Phillies fans standing outside looking through it?
You don't want to hear what they are saying.
Make-or-break player: Clearly, this season will
be all Harper, all the time in Philadelphia. His defenders see his 2015 season
as more representative of his true talent level than what has occurred since
then. Vegas sees him as the odds-on favorite to win this season's NL MVP. His
detractors say we've already seen the best of Harper and that he's too
inconsistent to be considered an upper-level star. For better or worse, Harper
and the city of Philadelphia are in it together.
11. ST. LOUIS
CARDINALS
2019 projected record: 85-77 (third in NL
Central)
World Series odds: 12-1
Best case: The Cardinals will be in the thick of
it if Marcell Ozuna can
bounce back from a down season to form a dynamic offensive threesome with Matt
Carpenter and perennial MVP chaser Paul
Goldschmidt. If the Cardinals' rotation stays healthy and manager
Mike Shildt is able to piece together a plus bullpen, which may include
longtime prospect Alex Reyes and
definitely will include Jordan Hicks and Andrew Miller,
St. Louis might well emerge as the division's best team.
Worst case: There is a lot of upside to the St.
Louis staff, but there is also a populous mix of injury question marks and
youngsters. If the injuries come in waves and the kids aren't ready to pick up
the slack that would be enough to push the Cardinals down in the standings of
the very deep National League.
Make-or-break player: When Harrison
Bader took over in center field last season for the Cardinals,
it changed the complexion of what had been a suspect defense. He'll be back in
center again, giving St. Louis exceptional defense up the middle. But Bader
needs to continue to progress with the bat so Shildt can keep his glove in the
lineup.
12. COLORADO
ROCKIES
2019 projected record: 81-81 (second in NL West)
World Series odds: 25-1
Best case: It took a 163rd game for the Dodgers
to win the NL West in 2018, so the Rockies hope to go one game better this
season and capture the first division title in franchise history. From there,
the goal is even bigger: Win the first World Series in franchise history. They
have an MVP candidate in Nolan Arenado.
And Trevor Story put
up almost identical numbers in 2018, so that's two MVP candidates. The rotation
was very good in 2018. The biggest issues: the bullpen (which lost Adam Ottavino)
and Ian Desmond's ability to play center field on a regular basis.
Worst case: The projection systems see the
Rockies as a .500 team, but that feels more like a worst-case scenario than a
median outcome. Still, if Kyle Freeland and German
Marquez regress (or get injured, always an issue with Rockies
starters), the rotation could fall apart. Desmond could be a disaster in the
field and at the plate. The bullpen leaks. They finish under .500, and Arenado
questions why he didn't wait for free agency.
Make-or-break player: Jon Gray.
He could be great (3.67 ERA in 2017) or not great (5.12 ERA in 2018). The big
strikeout rate was still there last year, so there's no denying the stuff
remains elite.
13. TAMPA BAY
RAYS
2019 projected record: 81-81 (third in AL East)
World Series odds: 25-1
Best case: After winning 90 games last year,
including an impressive 41-25 mark in the second half, the Rays clearly have
their sights on returning to the playoffs for the first time since 2013.
Beating out the Red Sox and Yankees won't be easy, but 95 wins and a wild card
fits into a best-case scenario. Of course, the best best-case would be the Red
Sox and Yankees suffer some injuries, Blake Snell wins
another Cy Young Award, Willy Adames makes
The Leap, young hitters like Austin
Meadows and Brandon Lowe break
out, the bullpen is dominant again and they win 99 games and shock the world
with a division title.
Worst case: The team allowed just 646 runs last
year, second-fewest in the AL. There is a lot of projected regression here, not
just from Snell -- good luck repeating that .088 average allowed with runners
in scoring position -- but from some of the relievers. The Rays were next to
last in home runs, and their top returning home run hitter is Adames, with 10.
Combine pitching regression and questionable power output, and they fall back
to .500.
Make-or-break player: Tommy Pham.
He was 11th in NL MVP voting with the Cardinals in 2017 and tore it up in 39
games with the Rays. If he can post a .280/.400/.525 line, the Rays will have
the elite offensive player they need.
14. NEW YORK METS
2019 projected record: 87-75 (first in NL East)
World Series odds: 25-1
Best case: Despite all of the changes the Mets
have made since the beginning of last season, the story for New York is much
the same. Simply put, the Mets need their core players to remain mostly healthy
for the full season and, in particular, they need to get 140 or more starts
from their primary starting pitchers. If that happens, there is enough
high-level talent spread across the roster to put the Mets in the middle of a
four-way battle for the NL East.
Worst case: More than any other team, the Mets'
worst case is the flip side of its best case. As the season opens, the Mets are
looking at a half-season without Yoenis
Cespedes, and will likely open the season without Jed Lowrie or Todd Frazier.
New York's big-league depth is improved, but there isn't much likely help in
the minors, beyond the possible exception of slugging first baseman Pete
Alonso. In a rugged division, the Mets can't afford another injury epidemic.
Make-or-break player: For the Mets to win the
East, they need Noah
Syndergaard to rejoin Jacob deGrom in
the Cy Young chase. For Thor, the strikeout total is the tell. If he's around
200, then that means he's missing starts. If he's up around 270-280, he's
having the kind of career season that might put the Mets over the top.
15. OAKLAND
ATHLETICS
2019 projected record: 80-82 (third in AL West)
World Series odds: 40-1
Best case: Winning 97 games again would be a
great scenario. In a perfect world, something goes wrong in Houston and those
97 wins are enough to capture the AL West title. And once you get into the
postseason, anything can happen. It seems like everything goes wrong in the playoffs
for the A's in the Billy Beane era -- 0-for-9 in reaching the World Series --
but maybe this is the year everything goes right in the playoffs.
Worst case: The starting pitching was held
together last year by duct tape and Elmer's glue as the A's churned through 15
different starters (including trying the "opener" strategy down the
stretch). Their top two guys from last year are now injured (Sean Manaea)
and with the Angels (Trevor Cahill).
This year, they're counting on Marco Estrada, Brett
Anderson and rookie Jesus Luzardo to make an impact. The
rotation could be a disaster and the A's struggle to finish .500.
Make-or-break player: Probably one of the
starters, but closer Blake Treinen
broke out from career mediocrity to go 9-2 with 38 saves and a 0.78 ERA. He
led all pitchers in win probability added, meaning he was
great in close games and clutch situations.
16. LOS ANGELES
ANGELS
2019 projected record: 87-75 (second in AL West)
World Series odds: 40-1
Best case: Like last year, the Angels enter 2019
with the chance to earn a wild-card berth if they stay relatively
healthy. Mike Trout
raises their floor tremendously, while Justin Upton, Kole Calhoun and
the criminally underrated Andrelton
Simmons help make up what looks like an above-average lineup.
If the Angels can get, say, a combined 100 starts from the foursome of Andrew Heaney, Tyler Skaggs, Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill,
and if the high-powered arms in their bullpen perform, they'll make a push.
Worst case: So, about those injuries -- the
Angels were forced to use 60 different players in 2018, and this is not an
organization with enough depth to sustain something like that. The veterans
they brought in on one-year contracts -- Harvey, Cahill, closer Cody Allen,
catcher Jonathan
Lucroy and first baseman Justin Bour --
are all major questions this season. If they don't turn their careers around,
it'll be a fifth consecutive postseason absence. In other words, another wasted
season of Trout.
Make-or-break player: Shohei Ohtani is
important for this coming season, but he means everything to the Angels'
future. Ohtani will spend this season as a DH who is also rehabbing from Tommy
John surgery, hopeful of resuming a two-way role in 2020. He could be the most
valuable player in the sport by then, but his rehab needs to go smoothly. And
there is no blueprint for it.
17. MINNESOTA
TWINS
2019 projected record: 78-84 (second in AL
Central)
World Series odds: 25-1
Best case: The Twins have bounced around from 70
wins to 83 to 59 to 85 (and a wild card) to 78 the past five seasons. They
signed Nelson Cruz and C.J. Cron,
who combined for 67 home runs last year (Twins DHs and first basemen hit 32 in
2018). They'll need the 2017 version of Byron Buxton
and somebody in the rotation -- Michael
Pineda? -- to step up behind Jose Berrios and Kyle Gibson.
If all that comes together and the Indians' rotation falter a bit, the AL
Central crown is possible.
Worst case: The same issues pop up that plagued
them in 2018. Buxton and Miguel Sano don't
hit. Cron turns into Logan
Morrison. Cruz gets old overnight. The back of the rotation stinks,
and the bullpen struggles. Even in a weak division, they finish under .500.
Make-or-break player: Buxton. He was worth 5.2
WAR in 2017, when he hit .253/.314/.413 and caught everything between North
Dakota and Wisconsin. He batted just 94 times in 2018, hit .156 and was worth
minus-0.2 WAR.
18. CINCINNATI
REDS
2019 projected record: 79-83 (fifth in NL
Central)
World Series odds: 80-1
Best case: The newcomers to the rotation
-- Sonny Gray, Alex Wood, Tanner Roark --
all pitch well, giving the Reds their best rotation in years. Joey Votto rediscovers
his power stroke. Yasiel Puig has
his best season. Rookie Nick Senzel makes an immediate impact in center field.
Both FanGraphs and PECOTA projections see the Reds as a .500 team in a tight
five-team race. If the breaks go their way, a division title is possible
(FanGraphs gives a 7.5 percent chance of that happening).
Worst case: The rotation is still terrible,
Votto hits 12 home runs again, Puig becomes a distraction and Scott
Schebler ends up playing 140 games in center. The Reds lose 90
again in a tough division.
Make-or-break player: Gray. The Reds were 27th
in rotation WAR in 2018, 29th in 2017 and 30th in 2016. Yuck. One guy won't
turn that around, but given the lengthy extension Gray signed, the Reds are
hoping he can be a top-of-the-rotation starter.
19. PITTSBURGH
PIRATES
2019 projected record: 87-75 (second in NL
Central)
World Series odds: 80-1
Best case: There is a non-zero chance that the
Pirates' pitching staff emerges as the best in the NL. The rotation has
dynamism in Jameson
Taillon and, hopefully soon, Mitch Keller, along with good
depth. The back of the bullpen with Felipe
Vazquez, Keone Kela and Richard Rodriguez
looks outstanding, especially if Clint Hurdle can identify a dependable group
of bridge guys. If that staff is supported by plus defense and a lineup that
gets a couple of career seasons, then Pittsburgh is capable of fringe
contention.
Worst case: The pitching is OK, but the worry is
that the offense looks as feeble as it might, especially given a
less-than-scary middle of the lineup. Meanwhile, if the Bucs manage to hang
near the fringe of wild-card contention heading into July, the need for a thumper
would become obvious to all. But if the trade deadline passes without the
addition of said thumper, sooner or later the Pirates need to throw their fans
a bone or three.
Make-or-break player: Chris Archer looks
like the No. 3 or 4 in the Pirates' prospective rotation, but if he returns to
form, that's when the Pittsburgh staff begins to approach its potential.
Hopefully pitching coach Ray Searage can work his magic, as he has done so
often before.
20. ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKS
2019 projected record: 73-89 (fourth in NL West)
World Series odds: 80-1
Best case: They've lost Patrick
Corbin, but Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray, Zack Godley, Luke Weaver and
Merrill Kelly have the potential to emerge as an above-average rotation. Jake Lamb and Steven Souza
Jr. combine for the 60 home runs they hit in 2017 rather than the 11
they hit in 2018. Adam Jones finds
the fountain of youth. Somebody locks down the ninth inning, a big problem last
year. Look, the Dodgers have won six straight division titles. They have depth
and star power that Arizona lacks. A lot will have to go wrong in L.A. for
Arizona to have a chance to win the division, so maybe a wild card is the
best-case scenario.
Worst case: They can't replace Paul
Goldschmidt, Corbin and A.J. Pollock,
who combined for 12.7 WAR in 2018. The offense was ninth in the NL in runs last
year and craters without Goldschmidt. The bullpen isn't fixed. If the Padres
and Giants are better, it could turn into a 90-loss season.
Make-or-break player: Ray has as good stuff as
any lefty in the game, and it all came together in 2017, when he went 15-5 with
a 2.89 ERA. He maintained his sky-high strikeout rate in 2018, but he walked
too many batters and had some minor injury issues. If he returns to All-Star
level, he and Greinke give Arizona one of the best 1-2 tandems in the majors.
21. SEATTLE
MARINERS
2019 projected record: 76-86 (fourth in AL West)
World Series odds: 100-1
Best case: The Mariners haven't made the
playoffs since 2001, the longest drought in the majors. They've won 89, 86 and
87 games in three of the past five seasons -- totals that could have made the
postseason in 2015 or 2017, except those seasons they finished under .500. Can
they finally get their timing right? Hey, if they get bounce-back seasons
from Jay Bruce and Domingo
Santana (66 home runs in 2017, 14 in 2018), and Yusei Kikuchi
is the real deal, and Marco
Gonzales takes another step forward, and the no-name bullpen
delivers, and Justus Sheffield comes up and lights it up ... OK, that's a lot
of ifs. This isn't a complete teardown, but a .500 season would be a good
season.
Worst case: There's a lot of downside here, with
the age of the lineup and the lack of depth on the pitching staff. The Mariners
lost five of their top six players from 2018. Things could easily spin out of
control, which could lead to Mitch Haniger getting
traded and something approaching 100 losses.
Make-or-break player: Hunter
Strickland. The Mariners were actually outscored in 2018; one reason
Jerry Dipoto was willing to break up the roster. A key reason they still won 89
games was that Edwin Diaz crushed
it as closer, with 57 saves. Strickland has to lock down the ninth or those
one-run victories could turn into one-run losses.
22. TORONTO BLUE
JAYS
2019 projected record: 72-90 (fourth in AL East)
World Series odds: 300-1
Best case: Given the evolving nature of this
mostly young team, the expectations won't be enormously high for Toronto in
2019. The Blue Jays' best-case scenario would certainly be a postseason berth,
but with the mighty Yankees and Red Sox also in the division, that would be
quite the accomplishment. Perhaps more realistically, an 85-win year and a
(mostly full) season of fun feats from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. would make it a
great year.
Worst case: Speaking of Guerrero, Toronto's
plans relative to the 20-year-old's service time were well-documented ahead of
the oblique strain that's currently sidelining him. Still, whenever the rookie
does arrive in Toronto this year, the baseball world will deify him. Bo
Bichette and Cavan Biggio, other sons of former big-leaguers, could make their
big-league debuts this year, too. If the trio disappoints, struggling whenever
they each reach The Show, Toronto's worst-case scenario would be realized.
Make-or-break player: Even if he misses the
first few weeks, Guerrero will be the most-watched rookie across North America
this season. Quite frankly, based on the way he raked in the minor leagues last
year, there's little reason to believe Guerrero, if healthy, won't have
immediate success in the big leagues. That arrival could be the jolt Toronto
needs to fulfill its best-case scenario.
23. SAN DIEGO
PADRES
2019 projected record: 74-88 (third in NL West)
World Series odds: 100-1
Best case: A wild card. Look, do the Padres
appear as strong as the NL East or NL Central teams? No, but the projections
see them around .500, which puts them in the hunt. They'll need the young
rotation to mature overnight, Manny Machado to
have an MVP-type season and the outfield corners (Wil Myers, Franmil Reyes, Hunter
Renfroe) to combine for 60-plus home runs. Fernando Tatis Jr. could
make a quick leap to stardom as well.
Worst case: The inexperienced rotation cracks,
the middle infield youngsters aren't ready, the outfield corners can't stay
healthy and Machado finds out that hitting home runs in Petco Park is a lot
more difficult than it was at Camden Yards. The Padres match last year's 66-96
record.
Make-or-break player: Eric Hosmer.
Obviously, a lot rides on the starting pitcher, but Hosmer needs to better
justify the $144 million investment in him after a 1.4-WAR season that saw him
hit .253/.322/.398. -
24. CHICAGO WHITE
SOX
2019 projected record: 72-90 (third in AL
Central)
World Series odds: 200-1
Best case: The younger members of the young Pale
Hose must take a collective step forward, with the hurlers in the bunch
avoiding any more Tommy John surgeries. With Michael
Kopech and Dane Dunning out, Chicago needs the likes of Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo
Lopez, Dylan Cease and Carlos Rodon to
show they are the makings of a productive big-league rotation. Just as badly,
Chicago needs Yoan Moncada and Tim Anderson to
show that they will be viable regulars as the next wave of position prospects
reaches the South Side.
Worst case: Zero progress from the
aforementioned prospects. The White Sox need to establish some momentum and
brand themselves as a team on the verge of breaking through, because another
tepid free-agent season could start to become a trend.
Make-or-break player: The void left by the
failed pursuit of Manny Machado
is the toughest to fill: the cornerstone piece. The face of the franchise. Or,
analytically, the 5-8 wins around which you can build a roster on an annual
basis. After committing to Eloy Jimenez, who has yet to log a single day of
big-league service time, the White Sox badly need him to become what Machado
already is. No, he likely can't establish that as a rookie, but he can show
everybody that he's capable of scaling those heights.
25. TEXAS RANGERS
2019 projected record: 73-89 (fifth in AL West)
World Series odds: 1000-1
Best case: In their final season at Global Life
Park before moving across the parking lot into a new venue, the Rangers need
their young hitters to establish themselves -- finally -- as the foundation to
Texas' next contending club. Rougned Odor must
consolidate his gains from 2018. Nomar Mazara needs
to approach stardom. Joey Gallo needs
to be more consistent. Delino
DeShields, Ronald Guzman and
Willie Calhoun all need to progress. If most of these things happen, the
Rangers' near-term future starts to come into focus.
Worst case: If most of those free-swinging
hitters stagnate and Texas' M.A.S.H. unit of a starting rotation crumbles, things
could get ugly. The Rangers have one of baseball's best relievers in Jose Leclerc,
but the poor guy is only good for 70 innings or so.
Make-or-break player: In terms of Texas' 2019
outlook, it's not really one player but five: Mike Minor, Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller, Drew Smyly and Edinson
Volquez. Can any of these guys even qualify for the ERA title? On
the flip side, all are familiar names for a reason. Namely, they've all had
success at the big-league level. If Jon Daniels hits the jackpot and the core
rotation accounts for 130 or more starts, the Rangers can be competitive, even
if a postseason push seems like the outer edge of possibility.
26. SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTS
2019 projected record: 73-89 (fifth in NL West)
World Series odds: 100-1
Best case: Five years ago, this was basically an
All-Star team. And if Buster Posey, Evan Longoria, Pablo
Sandoval, Gerardo Parra, Madison
Bumgarner, Jeff
Samardzija and Derek Holland can
all tap back into what made them great, the Giants will surprise a lot of
people. If not, well, it'll be a long season.
Worst case: The reality is that the Giants'
roster is littered with players who are past their primes and overly expensive.
Their outfield lacks talent and their pitching staff lacks depth. The Giants
need to begin their rebuild, and the 2019 season will probably validate that
thinking.
Make-or-break player: Posey didn't hit for much
power through the first five months of 2018, then underwent hip surgery in late
August, raising questions about his long-term future behind the plate. Posey is
still among the game's best catchers, but he is guaranteed more than $64
million over these next three seasons. The Giants need him healthy and right.
27. DETROIT
TIGERS
2019 projected record: 69-93 (fifth in AL
Central)
World Series odds: 1000-1
Best case: For the Detroit rebuild to start to
look like something, the Tigers need some under-25 talents to reach the majors
and flash their potential. Christin
Stewart should see some big-league time, so if he does well and
if Daz Cameron can push his way to the majors later in the season that would be
a start. If those guys progress and Miguel
Cabrera comes back strong enough to give fans some career
milestones to root for, that's a good season.
Worst case: The injury to Michael
Fulmer may already be the first step toward a worst-case
scenario in Detroit. Not only was he the Tigers' best pitcher -- and possibly
their best player overall -- but he was also the last, best trading chip for Al
Avila. Fulmer's Tommy John surgery could mean that his peak trade value has
already come and gone. Tack that onto another season with what feels almost
entirely like a stopgap roster, and it might be a dreary summer for the Tigers.
Make-or-break player: Fulmer's injuries probably
intensify the need for the Tigers to get an exciting full-season debut from
Casey Mize. The performance wouldn't be in Detroit, and it wouldn't have to be
to satiate Tigers fans. They just need a whiff of ace-level buzz from somewhere
in the organization.
28. KANSAS CITY
ROYALS
2019 projected record: 70-92 (fourth in AL
Central)
World Series odds: 1000-1
Best case: The Royals won 58 games last year.
That's bad baseball. Sure, a quick turnaround is possible -- the Twins went
from 59 wins to 85 and a wild card in 2017 -- but unlikely. The Royals will be
kind of fun to watch with Whit Merrifield, Billy
Hamilton and Adalberto
Mondesi running wild on the bases, but there isn't much power
here or on-base ability in the lineup. PECOTA forecasts 72 wins, FanGraphs 68,
so a .500 season would be a huge step forward.
Worst case: Hamilton and Mondesi each steal 50
bases while posting .275 OBPs. Ryan O'Hearn hits like he did in Triple-A. Brad Keller can't
repeat his low strikeout rate/low ERA rookie season. The bullpen is as bad it
looks on paper. Another 58-104 season.
Make-or-break player: O'Hearn is fascinating. He
was so good in his major league call-up -- .262/.353/.597, 12 home runs in 149
at-bats -- that there is some talent there. But he was awful in Triple-A
(.232/.322/.391) and doesn't really have much of a track record in the minors.
He could be the Royals' All-Star rep, or he could end up back in Omaha.
29. MIAMI MARLINS
2019 projected record: 66-96 (fifth in NL East)
World Series odds: 2000-1
Best case: The Marlins are still early in their
process, to the point that their best case would be the worst case for about
half the other teams in the majors. What Marlins fans can hope for is that the
makings of a dynamic young starting rotation start to come together around a
lineup that at the very least plays the game the right way. Jordan Holloway,
Trevor Rogers, Sandy
Alcantara, Jordan Yamamoto, Edward Cabrera, Zac Gallen, Sixto
Sanchez, Jorge Guzman, Nick Neidert, Braxton Garrett -- these are names in the
system that Miami will monitor in the coming season. If most of those guys
progress, the light at the end of the tunnel starts to grow a little brighter.
Worst case: More than anything, the Marlins
can't afford the loss of forward momentum. They need their young big leaguers
like Lewis Brinson, Jorge Alfaro and Brian
Anderson to cement themselves as regulars. They need some of
those young pitchers to break through. They need to keep their young arms
healthy. Basically, Marlins fans have to be shown that all of this has been
done for a reason, which won't be easy with Giancarlo
Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Christian
Yelich and J.T. Realmuto all
starring for contending teams.
Make-or-break player: Brinson was dreadful at
the plate in his first Marlins campaign. It didn't help that the player he was
traded for -- Yelich -- won the NL MVP award. Brinson doesn't have to do that.
He just needs to look like a bona fide regular.
30. BALTIMORE
ORIOLES
2019 projected record: 64-98 (fifth in AL East)
World Series odds: 2000-1
Best case: Chris Davis parties
like its 2015 and puts up MVP numbers. Dylan Bundy remembers
how to keep the ball in the park. Outfield prospect Yusniel Diaz, acquired in
last summer's Manny Machado
trade, explodes onto the scene in a Juan Soto kind of way and, along with
fellow youngsters Cedric Mullins and Ryan Mountcastle, helps the Baby Birds
take flight ahead of schedule. Instead of winning 63 games as projected, the
O's shock the world by winning ... 73.
Worst case: Completely overmatched by their
division rivals, the Orioles go a combined 0-38 against the Red Sox and
Yankees. The rotation, long a sore spot in Baltimore, is so bad that new
skipper Brandon Hyde opts for the opener strategy. Except that the bullpen --
minus longtime stalwarts Zack Britton, Brad Brach and Darren O'Day --
can't handle the added stress and completely implodes. Instead of winning 63
games as projected, the O's shock the world by winning ... 36.
Make-or-break player: Mike Elias. OK, so he's
not actually a player. But more than anyone, Baltimore's new GM is the one who
hold the keys to the team's success. How quickly Elias establishes the Birds'
international pipeline, how well he drafts in June and how well he trades in
July will be critical to the club's monster rebuild.
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