The Boston Bruins-Toronto Maple
Leafs matchup in the first round of the 2019 Stanley Cup
playoffs seemed preordained for months. Can the addition of John Tavares carry
the rest of the Leafs to finally slay their demons? Let's break it down:
HOW THEY GOT HERE: The Bruins overcame injuries
to the majority of their roster -- only four players appeared in more than 75
games, and none was a defenseman -- to again end up one of the NHL's top teams,
with a 49-24-9 record and 107 points. They were third in goals against (2.59
per game) and 11th in goals (at 3.13) per game, fueled by Brad Marchand's
100-point season, David
Pastrnak's 38 goals in 66 games and 73 points from David Krejci,
matching his career high.
Which team has the best unit up front? We put them in tiers
and rank them 1-16 here, led unsurprisingly by the Tampa Bay Lightning.
The Maple Leafs added free-agent prize John Tavares last
summer but struggled with consistency this season, especially on defense. They
were fourth in the NHL in goals per game at 3.49 but a middling 12th in goals
against (3.04). They generate as many shots (33.4) as they surrender (33.1).
The Leafs are a 100-point team (46-28-8), and they have a deep forward group
and a capable goaltender. But are they good enough defensively to win this war
against the rival Bruins?
FIRST LINE: In the past, we might have skipped
to the "Advantage: Bruins" part of this entry, but the line of Patrice
Bergeron, Marchand and Pastrnak was actually a bit less effective
than it was in dominating the league last season. Its goals-for percentage
dropped from 63.64 to 53.85. Metrics such as expected goals for percentage
(56.28) and high-danger shot attempt percentage (54.07) at 5-on-5 dipped as
well. Granted, they played 462:16 together compared to 535 minutes in the
previous season due to injuries. The Toronto line of Tavares, Mitch Marner and Zach Hyman played
817 minutes together and was outstanding: 60.92 goals-for percentage, 56.82
high-danger shot attempts percentage and 53 goals generated. Basing this
strictly on their play this season? Advantage: tie
DEPTH: The Leafs have their greatest advantage
at the forward spot. Beyond Marner (94 points) and Tavares (88) is Auston
Matthews (73 points in 68 games), who skated with combinations
of Andreas
Johnsson, Kasperi
Kapanen and William
Nylander. Nazem Kadri,
who was suspended for three games in the playoff series against the Bruins last
year, and Patrick
Marleau lead the third line. After their top line, the Bruins'
best duo has been Krejci and Jake DeBrusk,
who had 27 goals in a breakout campaign. Danton Heinen, Charlie Coyle, Marcus
Johansson, rookie Karson
Kuhlman and Sean Kuraly (currently
injured) can all contribute. Noel Acciari and
veteran David Backes,
if he plays, are among the grinders. Advantage: Maple Leafs
DEFENSE: As much as the forwards are an
advantage for the Leafs, the blue line is an advantage for the Bruins. The
depth of this group was on full display through a season of injuries, as only
one defenseman (Brandon Carlo)
played more than 70 games. It'll be tested again, as Kevan Miller will
likely miss the start of the series. Zdeno Chara and Charlie
McAvoy are the top pairing, with Torey Krug (53
points) and Carlo next. Matt Grzelcyk will
likely pair with Steven
Kampfer, with Miller and John Moore out.
For the Leafs, Morgan Rielly(72
points) and veteran (some would say liability) Ron Hainsey form
the top pairing, with Jake Muzzin and Nikita
Zaitsev as the second duo, followed by Travis
Dermott and Jake
"minus-5 in Game 7 last year" Gardiner as the other
duo. Advantage: Bruins
GOALTENDING: The Bruins had the seventh-best team
save percentage in the NHL, at .912 with nine shutouts. Tuukka Rask (27-13-5)
was good, but backup Jaroslav Halak was
even better (22-11-4), with a .922 save percentage and 16.30 goals saved above average. Frederik
Andersen of Toronto once again faced a ton of shots (1,958) and
made a ton of saves (1,796) for a .917 save percentage, often being the best
player on the ice for the Leafs. His goals saved above average at 5-on-5 was
9.88. But the Bruins' duo is just a shade better. Advantage: Bruins
COACHING: Bruce Cassidy deserves a massive
amount of credit (and perhaps a Jack Adams nomination) for leading the Bruins
through their injuries to tie for second in the NHL in points. Mike Babcock,
meanwhile, is starting to hear it from the critics who wonder about the Leafs'
player usage and defensive stability. He is one of the most respected coaches
in the NHL ... and one who hasn't won a playoff round since Nicklas
Lidstrom retired. Advantage: Bruins
HEALTH: The Bruins are without Miller, center
Sean Kuraly and defenseman John Moore to start the series, but all could be
back at some point. Toronto is fairly healthy. Advantage: Maple Leafs
SPECIAL TEAMS: The Bruins have the third-best
power play in the NHL, at 25.9 percent, while the Leafs are eighth, at 21.8
percent. Their penalty kills had identical 79.9 percent rates, though the
Bruins were short-handed more times (244) than the Leafs (204). Advantage:
Bruins
PREDICTION: Maple Leafs in seven. Andersen is the key
to this series, as Toronto has no alternative in goal and because he has been
the team's best defense all season. If he's able to steal a couple of games,
this Toronto offense was second only to the Lightning in 5-on-5 goals per 60
minutes (3.03). The Buds pull the upset.
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