The Calgary
Flames roared to the top of the Western Conference this season,
while the Colorado
Avalanche narrowly qualified for the 2019 Stanley Cup playoffs.
Who wins the series? Let's break it down:
HOW THEY GOT HERE: The Flames missed the
playoffs last season after making them in 2016-17 for one primary reason:
offense. They had a 2.63 goals per game average, ranking them 27th in the
league. So GM Brad Treliving got to work. He fired head coach Glen Gulutzan and
replaced him with former Carolina coach Bill Peters. He made a blockbuster
trade, moving defenseman Dougie
Hamilton to the Hurricanes with Micheal
Ferland and the rights to Adam Fox for defenseman Noah Hanifin and
forward Elias
Lindholm. He signed Derek Ryan and James Neal (although
the less said about that latter signing, the better).
These changes, along with career years from Johnny
Gaudreau (99 points) and Matthew
Tkachuk (34 goals), helped the Flames to be the league's
third-best offense, at 3.52 goals per game. Their Mark Giordano-led
defense was good enough in front of their below-average goaltending to win them
the Pacific.
The Avalanche had a more complicated path to the postseason,
clinching their wild-card spot in the last days of the regular season. They did
so on the back of goalie Philipp
Grubauer, acquired last summer from the Capitals, who went 8-1-2
down the stretch and gave up more than two goals just once in that span. While
depth is not a word associated with these Avs, they do boast one of the best
lines in hockey when the group is together and healthy. Can they muster up enough
pop to keep pace with Calgary?
FIRST LINE: Nathan
MacKinnon, Mikko
Rantanen and Gabriel
Landeskog played 841 minutes together at even strength and
dominated: 46 goals, a goals-for percentage of 61.33 and a 54.56 scoring chance
percentage. But Calgary's Sean Monahan,
Gaudreau and Lindholm were nearly as potent offensively in 823 minutes, with 52
goals, a 59.77 goals-for percentage and 52.56 percent of scoring chances. They
were also a little better defensively, thanks in no small part to Lindholm
joining up. It's close, but we'll still give the nod to MacKinnon's
group. Advantage: Avalanche
DEPTH: With any of their top-line players on the
ice, Colorado scored 80 goals at 5-on-5; without any of them, they scored just
76. Such is the depth problem these Avs have at forward, as no other center or
winger had more than 50 points. Carl
Soderberg (23 goals) and Alexander
Kerfoot (42 points) were the next-highest scorers. Colin Wilson had
27 points. Derick
Brassard, their most notable trade deadline pickup, had four goals
in 20 games. Calgary, by contrast, had six forwards in double digits in goals
outside of the top line: Tkachuk, Mikael
Backlund (21), Michael
Frolik (16), Mark
Jankowski (14), Derek Ryan (13), Sam Bennett (13)
and Garnet
Hathaway (11). The team's "3M" line of Tkachuk,
Backlund and Frolik has a 67.44 goals-for percentage at even strength. Advantage:
Flames
DEFENSE: Giordano is the favorite to take home
his first Norris Trophy after a season that saw him score 17 goals, amass 74
points and post a plus-39 rating at 35 years old. He's paired with T.J. Brodie. Travis
Hamonic and Hanifin make up the other duo, but then it gets a
little thin with players such as Oscar
Fantenberg, Rasmus
Andersson, Oliver
Kylington and Dalton Prout in
the mix. The Avalanche are anchored by Tyson Barrie,
who had 59 points in 78 games this season. He skates with Nikita
Zadorov, who was a plus-19 this season. Their leader in ice time on
defense is veteran Erik Johnson,
who skates with Samuel Girard (27
points). Veteran Ian Cole and Patrik Nemeth round
out the group. Advantage: Flames
GOALTENDING: Grubauer has been red hot down the
stretch, and strong overall, with a .917 save percentage. (Although his goals saved above average is just 0.85.) Semyon
Varlamov was 20-19-9 with a .909 save percentage, and he has
appeared in six games since March 1. The Flames got a great run from David Rittich,
who posted a .911 save percentage and 7.99 goals saved above average. But
36-year-old Mike Smith has
split time with him in the past month, and he appears to have the crease to
start the playoffs after two months that salvaged his season. Advantage:
Avalanche
COACHING: Jared Bednar has coached only six NHL
playoff games, but that's six more than Bill Peters has coached. Bednar has
coached through adversity this season, and he made the playoffs in consecutive
seasons; that's no small feat in the West. Advantage: Avalanche
HEALTH: Rantanen, who has been out since March
21, is skating in a non-contact jersey this week, but he looks like he'll
answer the bell for Game 1. The Flames are healthy. Advantage: tie,
assuming Rantanen is back
SPECIAL TEAMS: The Flames were 18th on the power
play at 19.3 percent, while Colorado was seventh at 22.0 percent. The Flames'
penalty kill was 21st (79.7 percent) and Colorado 25th (78.7 percent). In other
words, nothing to write home about on special teams outside of the Avs on the
man advantage. Advantage: Avalanche
PREDICTION: Flames in six. Grubauer
keeps the Avalanche in it, but the Flames' offense proves too much to handle.
But fret not for the Avs: Cale Makar, the No. 1 drafted prospect in hockey, and Ottawa's lottery
pick mean they're going to be loaded next season (and beyond).
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