Kawhi Leonard averaged 18 points, 6.3 rebounds and 2.7
assists per game vs. Orlando this season.
No one would blame the Orlando Magic -- in the playoff for
the first time since 2012 -- if there was a “mission accomplished” feel to
their season. For the Toronto Raptors, meanwhile, things are only getting
started.
What the Magic did down the stretch -- going 22-9 since Jan. 31, including an
11-2 finishing kick to pass both the Miami Heat and Detroit Pistons -- was
remarkable. It’s a foundation to build on for next season, but with a
demonstrated level of success to instill confidence in the players and perhaps
earn Coach Steve Clifford some Coach of the Year votes.
WHAT WILL MATTER MOST IN THE RAPTORS-MAGIC SERIES?
Toronto, by contrast, has been navigating six months and 82
games to get to this point. Most of what people remember about recent Raptors
history has focused on the spring, with their two first-round ousters, two in
the conference semis and one in the East finals over the past five seasons.
That frustrating pattern cost Coach Dwane Casey his job
and saw DeMar DeRozan get traded. But DeRozan was shipped out for Kawhi
Leonard, Casey was replaced with new coach Nick Nurse and Toronto has arguably
its deepest and most versatile team yet.
Leonard was a big upgrade, giving the Raptors one of the
league’s top two-way players. Lowry had a moody but effective season, with the
team less reliant on his scoring. Forward Pascal Siakam emerged as arguably the
NBA’s most improved performer and center Marc Gasol, acquired from Memphis
at the trade deadline, provides size, smarts and skills.
The pieces fit better than ever, with the Raptors hoping for
a finish (Finals or better) to match.
THREE THINGS TO
WATCH
1. EXPERIENCE REALLY IS GOING TO MATTER. If you
add up the number of playoff games in which Orlando’s regular starters have
appeared, you get a modest 33 (28 for D.J. Augustin, four for Evan Fournier,
one for Nikola Vucevic). The Raptors can go with a starting five -- Gasol (59),
Leonard (87), Lowry (62), Serge Ibaka (109) and Danny Green (100) -- in
which each man has more career postseason appearances than the Magic’s starters
en masse. Combined, that five has 417 career playoff games.
2. A RESTED KAWHI IS A DANGEROUS KAWHI. That is
Toronto’s hope, at least. Three Raptors teammates and five Orlando starters all
have logged more playing time this season than the well-rested and load-managed
Leonard. The 22 games he didn’t play in the regular season might cost him Kia
MVP consideration and All-NBA votes. But Leonard totes some gaudy offensive and
defensive ratings in his playoff career, as well as a strong win-share record.
3. THE SEASON SERIES MIGHT HAVE BEEN REVEALING. These
teams split their four meetings, with Orlando outscoring the Raptors by 30
points cumulatively. And it was an awfully representative sample, with the
games scattered from November to April. The Magic took and made about two extra
3-pointers per game, a fine trade for the 1.5 point deficit it ran from
the foul line.
THE NUMBER TO KNOW
65.5 percent -- After adding Gasol, the Raptors
recorded assists on 65.5 percent of their field goals, the league's fourth-highest rate and up from 57.8 percent
(22nd) before Gasol joined the team. In the 26 games he played,
the rate was higher with Gasol on the floor (67.1 percent) than it was with him off the floor (63.8
percent), but both rates were higher than that before his arrival. In regard to
overall efficiency, the Raptors saw greater improvement on defense than they
did on offense after the Gasol addition. But the improved ball movement that he
has brought should help against an opponent that had the league's best defense after Feb. 1.
MY PICK
It’s a nod to Orlando’s excellent play and conscientious
defense over the season’s second half that we expect them to win at least once
in this showdown. The Magic can play as if they have nothing to lose. But then,
so can a renewed Toronto team. That massive physical and psychological block
between them and postseason advancement -- that man, LeBron James
-- is nowhere to be found this spring. Mentally, the Raptors should feel
free ‘n’ easy and play that way in this series. RAPTORS IN 5.
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