ELITE OFFENSE VS.
ELITE DEFENSE IN BLAZERS-THUNDER
The Thunder enter the matchup as the underdog, but they
succeeded against the Blazers during the regular season.
Russell Westbrook has something to prove. He plays like it
at all times. So does Damian Lillard, another member of the NBA’s ultimate
competitor club.
And when two of the league’s elite point guards and big game
performers get the opportunity to square up in a playoff series, fireworks
should be expected.
But the No. 3-6 matchup in the Western Conference playoffs
is about much more than just Westbrook and Lillard.
It’s a clash of two teams with plenty to prove, both to
themselves after first-round flameouts a year ago. And to the rest of the
Western Conference. They need to show some signs that they can be a factor in
determining who survives and advances to the championship round this time
around.
WHAT WILL MATTER MOST IN THE BLAZERS-THUNDER SERIES?
The Trail Blazers, the No. 3 seed for the second straight
season, are still dealing with the aftershocks of being swept by the New
Orleans Pelicans last season. And this time around they are also dealing with
the loss of their starting center Jusuf Nurkic (broken leg), whose presence
will be sorely missed with Thunder big man Steven Adams waiting to impose his
will in the lane on both ends of the floor.
Lillard and C.J. McCollum need a postseason breakthrough to
prove that they can carry the franchise to that next level.
Westbrook and Paul George are in search of a similar
breakthrough after being upset by the Utah Jazz in their first postseason foray
together last season.
They’re clearly one of the league’s most dynamic 1-2
punches, elite two-way players capable of triple-doubles (Westbrook averaged a
triple-double for the third straight season) and MVP-caliber performances on
demand. But can their combined brilliance lift up a team that hasn’t won a
playoff series since Kevin Durant was still wearing a Thunder uniform?
The stakes are sky-high for both sides, as is the pressure
to deliver that breakthrough postseason performance.
And you know the spotlight will be electric in two of the
league’s best atmospheres in both Portland and Oklahoma City, which is just the
way cut-throat competitors like Westbrook and Lillard like it.
THREE THINGS TO
WATCH
1. CAN ENES KANTER FILL THE VOID LEFT BY NURKIC AGAINST
HIS OLD TEAM? It’s a tall task for Kanter or anyone on the Trail
Blazers roster to step into the role Nurkic played this season before going
down. No one knows Kanter’s strengths and weaknesses better than Adams and the
Thunder. He’s a scoring machine and an excellent rebounder but doesn’t scare
anyone with his defensive prowess. Kanter thrived in his reserve role before
Nurkic went down and kept it up when his role changed. But the pressure
ratchets up considerably in the postseason, especially when you realize what’s
at stake for both sides.
2. HOW BIG OF A CONCERN IS PAUL GEORGE’S SORE SHOULDER? It’s
a huge concern for the Thunder, who can’t survive in the postseason without
both George and Westbrook operating at their superstar best. That said George
has shown an ability to play through whatever pain he’s in (see his game-winner over
Houston Tuesday night) and deliver when the Thunder need it most. The playoff
schedule works in his favor for rest purposes. But the key will be finding
someone to help alleviate some of the defensive burden he’d normally have to
carry so he can pick and choose his spots in this series.
3. HOW MUCH STOCK SHOULD BE PUT INTO THE THUNDER’S 4-0
REGULAR SEASON SWEEP OF THE TRAIL BLAZERS? Plenty. Even though the Thunder
are technically considered the underdog in this series, it’s impossible to
ignore the fact that they dominated the regular season series. For context’s
sake, the only other postseason matchup featuring a 4-0 regular season sweep is
the No. 1 Milwaukee-No. 8 Detroit matchup in the Eastern Conference. Using that
as some sort of launch point for measuring what these teams will do in a
postseason setting, however, is a bit shortsighted. The circumstances in a
regular season series can never duplicate the pressure-packed, compressed
nature that a playoff series provides. And the urgency both teams will play
with now is on another level compared to anything they experienced in those
regular season matchups.
THE NUMBER TO KNOW
1.08 -- Damian Lillard scored 1.08 points per
possession as a pick-and-roll ball-handler, the best mark among 43 players that averaged at least five ball-handler
possessions per game, according to Synergy play-type tracking. Both
Lillard (51.4 percent) and C.J. McCollum (51.8 percent) ranked in the top five in pull-up effective field goal percentage among
41 players who attempted at least five pull-up jumpers per game, with McCollum
one of three players who shot better than 50 percent on at least 200 mid-range attempts.
The Thunder defense, meanwhile, allowed just 0.79 points per
possession on pick-and-roll ball-handler possessions, the league's second best mark. With their aggressive scheme
and two All-Stars that ranked in the top 10 in deflections per game, they led the league in the percentage of those opponent possessions that resulted in a turnover.
This is one of two first-round series that features a top-five offense vs. a top-five defense, and the frontline of that battle will be
on possessions where the Blazers' guards have the ball on the move.
MY PICK
Redemption is the name of the game for both teams in this
series. The Trail Blazers are dealing with an injury absence in Nurkic that
they simply cannot compensate for given the role he was playing alongside
Lillard and McCollum this season. The motivation to put to rest the memory of
that sweep to the Pelicans should fuel the Blazers this time around. He’d never
admit it, but Westbrook’s determination to show that he and George are every
bit the 1-2 punch he and Durant once were, is real. This is his chance to
deliver against an opponent he considers worthy. Both sides dig in for the
distance. TRAIL BLAZERS IN 7.
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