Sixteen teams have made the 2019 Stanley Cup playoffs, but of course just one can hoist
the trophy in June.
The other 15 will head home, getting an early start on the
local golf course. We looked behind the numbers and found the most glaring
statistic that would end each team's postseason run.
Note: These flaws are statistic-based. Overarching flaws,
such as coaching or team chemistry or depth, aren't represented here. This is
strictly the statistic-based weakness for each team heading into the playoffs.
TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNING
FATAL NUMBER: minus-50:59 power-play/penalty-kill
differential
The Bolts are a super team, so there's not much to nitpick
here. You typically won't find a lot of weaknesses on a 62-win team. However,
the Lightning does seem to find the penalty box quite a bit. They spent 50-plus
more minutes down a man than on the advantage in 2018-19, and were third in the
NHL in penalty-kill time. Their 3.57 minor penalties per 60 minutes was the
highest in the league, and three players had more than 60 minutes in penalties.
Sure, it helps that the team has the league's top penalty kill, but taking
needless penalties in the playoffs can sink a team's hopes.
COLUMBUS BLUE
JACKETS
FATAL NUMBER: 15.4 percent power play
The Jackets' weak power play won't do them any favors in a
tough first-round matchup with Tampa Bay. Only Cam Atkinson and Artemi
Panarin have five power-play goals or more this season. Since
the All-Star break, the team's 14.3 percent mark is even lower than it was to
start the campaign, going 11-for-77 over that span.
BOSTON BRUINS
FATAL NUMBER: 2.65 even-strength goals per 60
minutes
It was actually pretty difficult to find a numbers-based
issue with this team, at least relative to the rest of the playoff pack. But
the Bruins do struggle a little in scoring when all things are even, with 18.2
percent of their goals coming on the power play. David
Pastrnak had 17 on the man advantage, compared to 21 at even
strength. It's not necessarily a bad thing, but if the power plays run dry,
Boston will have to find a way to score more frequently at evens.
TORONTO MAPLE
LEAFS
FATAL NUMBER: 25.0 scoring chances allowed per
game
According to Natural Stat Trick, no playoff team allowed
more scoring opportunities than the Maple Leafs this season. The midseason
acquisition of Jake Muzzin helped
a little bit, but the defense remains exploitable. Toronto's 33.1 shots allowed
per game was No. 8 in the NHL, and despite decent goaltending from Frederik
Andersen, it gave up more than three goals per game. The Leafs
already have a tall task in stopping the Bruins in Round 1 before potentially
having to navigate the Lightning. They can't afford to hand over scoring
chances.
WASHINGTON
CAPITALS
FATAL NUMBER: 78.9 percent penalty kill
The Capitals aren't getting a ton of buzz heading into Round
1, despite being the defending champs. And while they deserve some more
recognition, their penalty kill is concerning. They allowed 55 goals while down
at least a man in 2018-19. Of players with at least 200 minutes on the penalty
kill, Matt Niskanen's
8.7 goals against per 60 minutes was third in the league, according to Natural
Stat Trick.
CAROLINA
HURRICANES
FATAL NUMBER: 7.2 even-strength shooting
percentage
The Canes sit 16th in the NHL in scoring, yet their shooting
percentage at even strength is the fourth worst in the league. Sebastian Aho hits
the back of the net a mediocre 8.7 percent of the time when all things are
even, but Justin
Williams checks in at 7.0, Jordan Staal is
at 6.0 and Andrei
Svechnikov scores 6.1 percent of the time. Those are some of
the lower marks in the league.
NEW YORK
ISLANDERS
FATAL NUMBER: 47.9 even-strength Corsi for
percentage
The Islanders are this year's "Corsi fraud" team.
Their Corsi is the sixth worst in the league, and the worst among playoff
squads. In close situations, it jumps slightly to 48.3 percent. The team put
together a truly magical season in Year 1 AT (after Tavares), but controlling
possession is critical in the playoffs. Only one player who skated in at least
50 games this season broke 50 percent in Corsi for percentage: Mathew Barzal.
What's more, the Isles begin just 47.7 percent of their even-strength shifts in
the offensive zone.
PITTSBURGH
PENGUINS
FATAL NUMBER: .452 win percentage in one-goal
games
Though many of the same players are on the team, these
aren't quite the same Penguins of the past. The Avalanche are the only playoff
team that struggles more in closing down close games, and perhaps part of it is
Pittsburgh's mediocre .596 win percentage when scoring first. It will need to
find its killer instinct, and goaltender Matt Murray will
have to get hot after a middle-of-the-road campaign.
CALGARY
FLAMES
FATAL NUMBER: 1,233 hits
No, hits aren't wildly important. Finesse teams can win --
the Chicago Blackhawks can
attest to that. But generating hits and playing physically has a part in
wearing down opponents in the spring. It's a long run to a Stanley Cup, so
physicality shouldn't be overlooked; unfortunately, Calgary is dead last in the
NHL in hits. The Flames also tie the Buffalo
Sabres for last in the league in blocked shots, and only
the Florida
Panthers turn the puck over more.
COLORADO
AVALANCHE
FATAL NUMBER: .290 win percentage in one-goal
games
No team wins fewer close games. Lacking the ability to shut
the door on a team will surely come up again in Round 1. In fact, the Avs tied
for the most overtime losses this season. Yes, that's a different game at
3-on-3, but it still shows the team's inability to seal the deal. The one
player to keep an eye on, though? Gabriel
Landeskog was tied for second in the league with nine
game-winning goals.
NASHVILLE
PREDATORS
FATAL NUMBER: 12.9 percent power play
That's the worst mark in the league, and it certainly
contributes to the Preds' No. 19 scoring rate. Even at home, Nashville sits at
just 12.6 percent success rate on the man advantage. Only four players on the
Predators have double-digit power-play points, and Filip
Forsberg is the only one with at least five goals on the man
advantage. Oh, and the team's first-round opponent is a top-five penalty
killer.
DALLAS STARS
FATAL NUMBER: 2.55 goals per game
Only the lowly Anaheim Ducks and Los Angeles
Kings scoreless. That's not what you want when you are set to
face tough Central Division goaltending, including Pekka Rinne in
Round 1. The Stars score on just 6.9 percent of their even-strength shots.
Beyond the trio of Tyler Seguin, Alexander
Radulov and Jamie Benn,
only four players have at least 10 goals, and none of those four have more than
15. Dallas can't lean on Ben Bishop all
the way through the playoffs.
WINNIPEG JETS
FATAL NUMBER: .743 win percentage when leading
after two periods
That doesn't sound terrible, but it's the fourth-worst rate
in the NHL and by far the worst in the playoff pool. Winnipeg allowed nine
games to slip away in the third period. The Jets can't afford to let a hot team
like the Blues back into games. Part of the problem? Their 33.4 shots allowed
per game is the highest for the 16 playoff-bound teams.
ST. LOUIS
BLUES
FATAL NUMBER: .065 win percentage when trailing
after two periods
Here's the good news for the Jets: Despite closing the
season on a tear, the Blues haven't solved the come-from-behind wins puzzle
yet. They won just two of 31 games in which they entered the third period
behind on the scoreboard. That's second worst in the NHL, and the team's .158
win percentage when down after one period is also in the bottom five. For as
excellent as Jordan
Binnington has been, his .875 save percentage when trailing after
two periods leaves a lot to be desired.
SAN JOSE
SHARKS
FATAL NUMBER: 3.15 goals against per game
Perhaps more than any other statistic discussed here, the
Sharks' goal-prevention woes are glaring. They allow more goals than any other
playoff team. Neither Martin Jones nor Aaron Dell has
a save percentage north of .900, putting San Jose's 5-on-5 save percentage at
.897, the worst in the league. There's not too much to break down here. The
team is obviously one of the league's best, but you can't survive four playoff
series with goaltending that far below average.
VEGAS GOLDEN
KNIGHTS
FATAL NUMBER: .794 high-danger save percentage
This one is a bit strange, but according to Natural Stat
Trick, the Knights' save percentage when facing high-danger shots is the fifth
lowest in the NHL, and trails only the aforementioned Sharks among the teams
still playing. Jonathan
Quick was the only starting goalie with a lower high-danger
save percentage than Marc-Andre
Fleury's .791 this season. Can he transform back into the brick wall
of the 2018 postseason? He'll need to be superb against San Jose's offense.
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