The Tampa Bay
Lightning are coming off one of the most dominant regular
seasons in NHL history -- no, seriously, these numbers are eye-popping. Meanwhile, the Columbus Blue
Jackets just squeaked into the 2019 Stanley Cup playoffs after
being one of the more active teams at the trade deadline. Who wins this series?
Let's break it down:
HOW THEY GOT HERE: The Lightning arrived via
steamroller, flattening their foes en route to 62 wins, tying the 1995-96 Detroit Red
Wings for most all time in a single season. The Lightning
finished with a goal differential of plus-103, the second-highest mark in the
past 20 years. Their 3.96 goals per game is the highest in the NHL since
1995-96. Winger Nikita
Kucherov had an NHL-best 128 points, putting him in the
driver's seat for the Hart Trophy. Kucherov (41 goals), Steven
Stamkos (45) and Brayden Point (41)
all had 40 goals, the first team to have three such players since the
1995-96 Pittsburgh
Penguins.
The Blue Jackets arrived in a pool of their own sweat and
fingernails chewed to the bone. It took 81 games for the Jackets to clinch a
playoff spot, despite GM Jarmo
Kekalainen making the biggest trade-deadline splash by dealing
for Ottawa
Senators forwards Matt Duchene and Ryan Dzingel,
while hanging on to his own pending free agents in forward Artemi
Panarin and goalie Sergei
Bobrovsky. Columbus was 35-23-3 on the day of the trade deadline. The
Jackets went 12-8-1 after that, but it was good enough to earn the last wild
card and a date with a juggernaut.
FIRST LINE: The Blue Jackets' line of Artemi
Panarin (87 points), Pierre-Luc
Dubois (61 points) and Cam Atkinson (69
points) account for the top three scorers on the team. They had goals-for
percentage of 56.82 at 5-on-5. The Lightning can serve some line salad game to
game, but there's been one constant: Kucherov and Point (92 points) working
together, mostly with Tyler Johnson (47
points) but also with Yanni Gourde (48
points). With Johnson, they had goals-for percentage of 59.32. Advantage:
Lightning
DEPTH: The Lightning were meticulously
constructed for the past few seasons in an effort to amass the most talent they
could under the current salary cap. The result? A team with incredible top-end
talent, with secondary scoring from players such as Ondrej Palat and J.T. Miller,
and with dynamic two-way players such as Alex Killorn and
rookie Anthony
Cirelli, who had 19 goals. The Blue Jackets aren't without depth,
with players such as Duchene, Josh Anderson (27
goals) and Oliver
Bjorkstrand (23 goals) contributing offensively, and a slew of
others helping to make the Jackets a tough team to play against. Advantage:
Lightning
DEFENSE: Tampa Bay is anchored by Victor Hedman,
the reigning Norris Trophy winner who skates 22:46 per game and plays
with Mikhail
Sergachev or Dan Girardi. Ryan McDonagh plays
22:05 per game, skating mostly with Erik Cernak. Braydon
Coburn and Anton Stralman round
out the group. The Jackets pair their two best defensemen in Seth Jones (46
points) and Zach Werenski(44
points). David Savard, Markus
Nutivaara, Dean Kukan, Scott
Harrington and Adam McQuaid round
out the group They miss Ryan Murray,
out with an upper-body injury. Advantage: Lightning
GOALTENDING: Andrei
Vasilevskiy (39-10-4) is the favorite to win the Vezina Trophy
with a .925 save percentage and a 2.40 goals-against average. In 29 playoff
games, he has a .919 save percentage and a 2.68 goals-against. If that seems
Jekyll and Hyde, then you haven't seen Sergei
Bobrovsky's numbers. He had a decent regular season, with a .913
save percentage and a 2.58 goals-against average, but he played well down the
stretch. But his career playoff numbers remain putrid: an .891 save percentage
in 24 games, with a 3.49 goals-against average. Woof. Advantage:
Lightning
COACHING: How much credit does Jon Cooper
deserve for leading the best roster in the NHL to historic heights? Plenty, to
be honest, from his system to his personnel management to keeping a team a
country mile ahead of the field motivated. His teams have made the conference
finals in two of three seasons. John Tortorella hasn't won a playoff series
since 2013, but he has gotten the Jackets into the postseason in three straight
seasons -- the longest streak in franchise history. Advantage:
Lightning
HEALTH: The Jackets are still without Murray,
who has missed 24 games with an upper-body injury. Tampa had a few players
banged up late in the season, including Ryan Callahan and
Hedman, but should be at full strength. Advantage: Lightning
SPECIAL TEAMS: The Lightning had a power-play
percentage of 28.1, which was the highest in NHL history for an 82-game season.
They were tied with the Blue Jackets atop the league on the penalty kill, at
85.0 percent. The Jackets' power play was 28th, at 15.4 percent. Advantage:
Lightning
PREDICTION: Lightning in five. As
previously stated, the Lightning have made it a habit of rolling through teams
in the first two rounds, usually with one hiccup. The play of Bobrovsky in
previous postseasons does nothing to dissuade that thinking.
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